Standard Hand Checkup

[GrunchCan]

I presume my recent downswing must be due to faulty play on my part, and so I'm checking up on all my standard lines. Here's one:

The villan is a typical PP 1/2 player; too loose, but not an any-2-will-do player. too passive, but not a mouse. coldcalls too much. Stubborn with any piece of flop or any PP. Typical in every respect.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO (poster) checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, CO folds.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (5.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.75 BB

[droolie]

I play this the same way. The C/R on the flop has me calling to see if I imrove on the turn. It looks like he might C/R again on the turn so no reason to bet there. He leads out on the river and you have nothing but A high. I don't think this wins a pot against a flop C/Rer the 20% you need to make a river call profittable.

[GrunchCan]

What about the turn check? Do I have enough fold equity + best-hand equity to bet here? Or should I take the free card? In retrospect, it seems similar to the scenario in question 7 in Ed Miller's quiz.

[John Paul]

This seems fine to me. You got to the river pretty cheaply and hand A high. With the QJ9 out there are a lot of ways the villian could reasonably have a pair, or a straight, and the 3 hearts aren't your friends either.

[btspider]

nice hand. the difference of course is that he showed aggression on the flop, not you.. so you have much less fold equity. now if a fourth heart comes on the river and he checks..... hmm...

[John Paul]

What is fold equity?

[GrunchCan]

Fold equity is a quantification of the chance that your opponents will fold if faced with aggression.

Say you have 1 opponent, and there are 10 BB in the pot on the turn. You estimate that there is a 50% chance that your opponent will fold if you bet in to him. Then you are paying 1 BB to win the 10 BB in the pot 50% of the time. Your bet has a fold equity of 5 BB.

[btspider]

say a pot is 20 BB's. if you have the nut low, but your opponent will fold to your bet 10% of the time, then you stand to make a profit on your bluff. with the nut low, you have zero pot equity, so you make the bet if the fold equity is enough (it pretty much never is alone).

with a semi-bluff, you could improve to the best hand (pot equity), or you could fold your opponent (fold equity). the combination of the two must lay you the correct odds to make a bet worthwhile.

[srt19170]

[ QUOTE ]
you have the nut low

[/ QUOTE ]

All too often, my friend, all too often.

-- Scott

[srt19170]

Well-played.

In my case, I win high-card showdowns about 1:10, so I'm not calling on the river for 6 BB.

-- Scott