Help dealing with downslide...

[The13atman]

I apoligize in advance for making another one of these threads since I know the board seems to be flooded with them lately...

OK, here's the deal. I started playing PP 0.5/1 limit online in mid-July (before that I played no limit and lost $200). I started off pretty slow for the first 2700 hands or so and basically broke even, and even lost a little bit. Between hands 2700 and 11700, I had an amazing run, averaging 8.69 BB/100. From 11700 to 17500 (where I am now), I've averaged -2.60 BB/100. My total average from hand 1 to 17500 is 3.70 BB/100.

In graph form, it looks like this (hope this works):



Now I know 8.69 BB/100 is unsustainable in the long run, but I felt I could at least average 4 or 5 BB/100 consistently at 0.5/1.

I guess I'm just having a hard time understanding why I hit a wall and can't get past it. When the first downswing happened, from about 11700 to 13700, I was not worried at all as I know everyone has them from time to time and I even started to come out of it a little bit. Then I just kept breaking even and most recently started on another downswing.

Of the 10,991 hands in loaded PokerTracker, I'm an eagle (TA-N) by bisonbison's rating system.

Important PT stats:

VP$IP: 18.52%
PFR: 6.00%
AGG: 1.53 (without prelop included)
W$SD: 51.17%

While stats don't say a whole lot just on their own, I feel that they give at least a little insight as to how I play. I know my PFR and AGG are a little low, but they have been increasing as of late and probably started to get higher about the same time as my downslide. I don't feel like I've been too aggressive in general since my aggression has mostly increased with betting/raising high flush draws on the flop and also pushing harder with my overcards that miss the flop. I used to auto-bet if I raised preflop with high cards and missed the flop/turn against a few opponents and lately I haven't been doing so nearly as much. I've also stopped trying to be tricky and almost never bluff or slowplay. When I have a good hand, I play it hard; when I don't I let it go. I really feel like I'm a good player. I use pot odds, know when to slow down, when to push draws, etc. I've read WLLH, Hold'em Poker, and HPFAP. If anything, I feel like my ame has contnued improving even through the downswings especially with Poker Tracker helping out my game selection.

It feels like I'm getting sucked out on a lot more lately but it's very likely that it just FEELS that way since I tended to forget most of the bad beats while I was crushing the game as they were easier to shake off after a winning session. I've come to the realization that I just may have started with a great run of cards and got lucky and now I'm sinply getting "average" cards and am simply a losing/break even player. What seems to happen is that I go down 10 big bets within 25 hands and struggle for another 200 hands to get back to even without much success. When I finally do get a little ahead (say, as little as 5 big bets) I decide to quit before I lose it back. I know you're supposed to play hands, not results, but it's difficult for me to do this. A lack of the right mentality or discipline maybe?

I had planned on moving to 1/2 soon (I have the bankroll for it), but I wanted to go in with a burst, not while I'm struggling to break even at a lower level.

I'm just at my wits end as to why this is happening and if simply playing through it is the answer. I guess the point of all this rambling (besides just venting) is I feel like I need some guidance from more experienced players as to if this has ever happened to them, how they dealt with it, etc. Any type of feedback/suggestions are welcome.

I sincerely apoligize if this sounds like whining, which I realize it very well could. I'm honestly just having a problem analyzing whether I'm playing good and getting unlucky or playing bad and getting what I deserve... [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Vaftrudner]

You're making 3.70 BB/100 over 17500 hands. What's your problem? Move up! /v

[zephed56]

If the swings get you down so much, take a little time off to clear that clusterfuck in yer brain, then come back.
It helps. I think I have a tendency to play soft when I'm getting beat like a rented mule. So the best thing to do is quit when I notice it. Getting laid helps too.

[DeathDonkey]

Many will say 4-5 BB/100 is unsustainable, I don't really know. What I do know is your Agg factor and PFR are too low (especially the PFR, I am over 11% at Party 0.50/1)...oh and some have called me a LAG so take that with a grain of salt.

Your W$ at SD is too low also. I think you are probably taking hands too far and too passively and that you just ran really good when you were winning big. Take a shot at the 1/2 for awhile, I promise it will give you more of a clue of what you need to work on since your not going to make too much money by just having a VP$IP under 20 and not working on postflop stuff like you can at 0.50/1.

-DeathDonkey

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Your W$ at SD is too low also. I think you are probably taking hands too far.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think that W$SD of 51% is too low? I believe that many players would say that this number is fine. Any percentage much higher would mean that a player is playing way too tight, especially in what are generally loose games.

FWIW, after my first 10K hands logged in Pokertraker I beat the 2/4 Party game for 2.5BB/hour...while W$SD 51% of the time.

[Emmitt2222]

I do think that your pf raise is a bit low, most people are more around 7 or 8, but your w$sd seems typical. I think that your win rate is pretty good and you should be happy with it, but you can see from your runs that even that many hands is not enough. I am really coming to see how insignificant 10k hands is now that after 6k+ at party I am just over 1BB/100 because of a 100bb and then another 50bb downswing. So keep at at, Im in the same boat. My number are:
VP$IP: 14.88 (trying to loosen up, im too tight)
PFR: 7.23
AGG: 1.70 (with preflop, dont know how to get without prelop included)
W$SD: 54.99

[droolie]

You're a winning player. Relax. Take a few days off. Come back when you can play without the fear of impending doom. Read SSH before you play again!

Give us the breakdown of your aggression factor by street. I recently realized I was too passive on the flop. Try to get each street above 2.0 and you'll be sufficiently aggressive. I'd like to see your preflop raise be over 7%.

I was frequently not trying for free cards when I was drawing from late position. Though I was winning at a high rate I had to make this adjustment before moving to 1/2. Don't move up until you sort things out. Your BR will take a beating if you try to learn at a higher limit.

Variance will be greater the more aggressive you are but your overall BB/100 should go up if you are doing it correctly. Being selectively aggressive is the key. It is very common for people to start treading water when they experiment with becoming more aggressive. It happened to me to the point that I felt passivity was the answer at .50/1 PP. When you are aggressive in the wrong spots it's costly. Pick your spots. Fold when you're not sure instead of going too far with an aggressive line. The time to pick up aggression is when you have the odds to call but may not be aheaD. Always think, "What would happen if I raised instead of called here?" Don't think about the $$ it costs to raise but what the effects on the end result of the pot and your winning chances will be.

Your win at showdown is fine, imo. This shows your not folding too much on the river

[Greg J]

Awesome response -- awesome avatar. Hope to see you around here more zephed!

EDIT: Your location should be "She [censored] Bobby Orr!"

[DeathDonkey]

I just spout off random knowledge I pick up from these forums, but I thought a good target W$SD was 55-57? I am just under 54 with similar BB/hr at 2/4 and higher BB/hr at 0.50/1 also with around 54 W$SD. I'm happy to admit to being wrong but I thought someone recently said ideal W$SD is 55-57 and can't remember the Went to SD %...

-DeathDonkey

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I just spout off random knowledge I pick up from these forums, but I thought a good target W$SD was 55-57? I am just under 54 with similar BB/hr at 2/4 and higher BB/hr at 0.50/1 also with around 54 W$SD. I'm happy to admit to being wrong but I thought someone recently said ideal W$SD is 55-57 and can't remember the Went to SD %...

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]
55-57 is great, but it's tough to achieve. I'm at 51 with a BB/100 of just under 4 over 25k...