10 more situations

[stupidsucker]

Another list of situations all with 7 players remaining unless otherwise stated.

1)A7o UTG +1
Blinds 50-100
Stack is 605.
7 remaining
Nearly the same situation.

This time I push. I dislike my move here, but is it ridiculously horrible?

For the most part I stay away from Ax until I have to push.



2)A5o on the button 320 stack(cripilled when Q2s called my 6xBB preflop raise and hit 22x on the flop)
blinds are 25-50 and its folded to CO who limps. I push and lose to KJo.
Premature push?


3)The next one is an all out bad beat, I will mention my bad beats only so you all know I am not lying about them.
KK SB folded to me. I raise 3xBB.. Q3o calls me hits his Q, I push the flop he calls and hits the 3. Another KK loss.

4)AA I raise 3x BB one caller. KJ9 rainbow flop he min bets I push he calls. He shows JTo and hits the inside on the river.

5)Q4o in the 50chip BB 2 limpers Stack is 575 after post. Flop is Q22 rainbow and I push. The limpers had Q5 and KQ.

6)UTG + 1 with 88 blinds are 100-200. I have 88 with 745 stack. UTG pushes and I fold. He also had 88 and lost so I am BB next hand with Q4o. Co bets and I fold. Should I have called?
-- So I get T8o in the SB 445 after post. UTG minraises and I fold again. Q8o next hand limper and a pusher in front and I fold. Finally I have K4o still with 445 in the CO, its folded to me and I push.

Should I have called in those other situations or still waited for a better place to push? BB had 803 after posting the 200 BB so I felt I had a little FE here.

7)KJo 100-200 on the button with 815. Folded around to me... auto push IMO.

8)TT 1 before the Co. 590 in chips 25-50 blinds. 2 limpers.. I push, should I have limped? CO had KK.

9)KK with 1065 blinds are 25-50 a limper and a raise to 200. I push. Lose to AQo

10)Here is a tricky one.(for me anyways)T5o UTG with 875. BB is 100, BUT it is the last hand of that level. Next hand I will be the BB of 200. I push. KK in the BB takes it down. I pull off a miracle against him the next hand with my 43o against his AQ. K7o in the SB UTG min raises to 400 it folds to me, and I push with my 450 total chips. Perhaps I could have waited on this one?



More situations later. I am doing it in this format to get more hands in faster for quick review. Yes I know some of these are no-brainers, but perhaps something I think is a no-brainer is my leak. I am basically posting every situation I went out with in hopes I can find a cure.

That is 16 of the 98 places where I lost before the money.More later.

I hope this post turns out all right. I am making it on notepad because 2+2 is down again. I will cutNpaste later.

[ChrisV]

(1) Fold. Push tips the scales at about 3.43 horribleness units.

(2) No, this is fine.

(3) Oh, hush.

(4) This is another bad beat one?

(5) I'd check and see what develops. There's unlikely to be a free card taken.

(6) This all looks fine. Sometimes you get screwed. If UTG was short stacked I might call, but probably not.

(7) Yeah, auto.

(8) Standard.

(9) Don't make me call the bad beat police

(10) Fold, although you don't tell us how many players. With a decent number of players I wouldn't push even if it was 100/200 this hand.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
(9) Don't make me call the bad beat police


[/ QUOTE ]

I am just posting them all in order they appear in my Poker tracker. I know some of them are bad beats. Some will be ridiculous beats. I am not worried about the beats. Those are the least of my concern. I do believe I have suffered a lot of beats in this run, but isnt that what most losing players think too?


[ QUOTE ]
(10) Fold, although you don't tell us how many players. With a decent number of players I wouldn't push even if it was 100/200 this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


I stated at the very top of the post.
[ QUOTE ]
Another list of situations all with 7 players remaining unless otherwise stated

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok this is the only one I disagree slightly on, and I want to explore this one more. Right now I have a little FE, but as of next hand I have no FE for the rest of the tourney without doubling up. Vs the hands that will call me this is about a 35% double up.

So no one has to scroll up the hand in question is.

[ QUOTE ]
10)Here is a tricky one.(for me anyways)T5o UTG with 875. BB is 100, BUT it is the last hand of that level. Next hand I will be the BB of 200. I push. KK in the BB takes it down. I pull off a miracle against him the next hand with my 43o against his AQ. K7o in the SB UTG min raises to 400 it folds to me, and I push with my 450 total chips. Perhaps I could have waited on this one?

[/ QUOTE ]

[UncleRemus]

How's it goin' SS...

Before I leave a few comments on these, I'll letcha know... I'm nearing completion on a EV/AV HH analysis tool that might be interesting to run this batch through to see how bad you're running on the all in's. I haven't had much time to work on it lately, but I'm going to throw it up here on the boards as soon as it's finished (hopefully by the weekend).

As for the hands..
1 - (A7o from UTG+1) I lay this one down here pretty routinely with 5 to act, but one seat closer to the button and it becomes much closer. And I'd autopush it from the CO. In otherwords, bad, but not AWFUL -- probably about -T50 in EV by my estimation.

2- I'm making the same move. I figure to be maybe a little worse than a 3-2 dog here on average, but the folding equity makes up for it. A push here, I believe, beats the alternative of folding and trying to find a better spot...

3-5 Oof. The stuff broken keyboards and mice are made of.

6- I fold the 8's here. Not sure what UTG's stack is, but assuming it's average, I'm probably going to be a slight underdog here. I figure I can find a better spot. ... Ok the better spot doesn't seem to be coming around, but I think I call with the Q8o if the stack sizes are large enough (especially the pusher's) that it looks like there's a chance to get it heads up. I figure to be about 2.5-3:1 here, and I'm getting better than 3:1 on my money. Otherwise, I do push the K5 in the SB...

7-9 play'em all the same

10) As much as I hate to give up my last chance at FE, I fold this T5o UTG. Pushing is a major chip bleeding move here, -EV by about 140 chips by my estimation. I fold it and see what happens in my BB, hoping for the best.


Anyway, some rough beats in here and some pretty difficult choices. I'm sure it will all turn around for ya.

Good luck,
Remus

[ChrisV]

First of all, saying you're going to have no FE assume that next hand you'll be posting up, getting raised and folding. This is true most of the time, but it's wrong to assume that will always happen.

Secondly, you have FE in the SB even against perfect players.

Thirdly, you aren't playing perfect players. Against typical players you have FE even after folding the SB.

Fourthly, FE is not the be all and end all of SNG play. Let's generously assume that when you get called with the T5, you're 30% to win. The average pot size will be something like 1850 chips, allowing for the times when it's one of the blinds calling you. 0.3 * 1850 = 555 chips. Your loss is 320 chips. If you steal the blinds your stack will be 1025 chips.

Suppose if you fold, fold the BB, fold the SB, then find a 60% spot to invest your chips with the remaining 575. Your equity then is 690 chips.

Now assume you get called half the time when moving in with the T5 (not unreasonable vs 6 opponents, I think - and my assumptions so far have been generous for you). (555+1025)/2 = 790 chips. The question now is whether you think getting to see two extra hands, in BB and SB, plus the chance that it folds around to you in the BB, plus the psuedo-FE you get with your remaining chips, compensates for that 100 chip equity loss. I think it does, so I'm folding the T5.

Hope it was possible to follow all that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[stupidsucker]

Thanks guys, so far this is helpfull and reasuring*.

I think with some of these close situations is where my 8tabling gives me trouble. I have less time to react, so I think my aggressive side takes over more often then not.

The general consensus so far seems to be a few less then perfect moves. One bad move, and a few natural beats.

In the next few posts I hope to conclude where my errors are that I can fix, and how much bad luck was involved in this swing compared to just leaks. The bad luck I can toss aside and get over very easy, but I want to analyze it first and make sure that my game doesnt need serious patching. I cant afford another swing like this any time soon.

I beg of everyone to understand that I am not complaining about any of the bad beat hands I am posting. Just getting them in B&W.


My guess for the outcome of this once I am finished is that I will patch a few holes and be stronger then ever. I also want to say boldy now that I think MOST of this was bad luck. Once again I daont say it to complain, only to bring forth the reality of swings for everyone reading in hopes they will take their own variance in stride remembering once that Stupid Sucker lost 30 buy ins too.

[tigerite]

I maybe would have limped #8, otherwise I agree with the general concensus. The reason for limping TT is you've still plenty of chips - quite a bit above 10BB, and if you are called by the limpers, or any of the ones still to act, you could be in trouble or a coinflip.

[The once and future king]

[ QUOTE ]
6)UTG + 1 with 88 blinds are 100-200. I have 88 with 745 stack. UTG pushes and I fold. He also had 88 and lost so I am BB next hand with Q4o. Co bets and I fold. Should I have called?
-- So I get T8o in the SB 445 after post. UTG minraises and I fold again. Q8o next hand limper and a pusher in front and I fold. Finally I have K4o still with 445 in the CO, its folded to me and I push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Have to say I disagree whith the consensus that this is a standard fold.

I think you are more likely to be ahead here than behind. Lots of players will push at the 20s with 33-77 and AK-Js/os with the blinds at 100-200.(Well they did when I played there). This is as good an opportunity to get your chips in as any especialy as you are due to lose over 25% of your stack to the blind within the next 2 hands. With 7 players you are also likely to have that blind raised.

With the blinds at 100-200 and 7 players remaining Party Poker SNS's are very much a lottery. With 745 left you are looking to make a stand on a hand and to getITM double up. With the blind to come I feel you are being overly passive passing with 88.

Which pretty much is the opposite of my feelings towards hand 1.

[adanthar]

1)If the blinds go up before or when they hit you, this is a push for me. If not, it's bad, but not horrible.

2)Fold. At the 30's, you'll be called and aren't going to like the hand you're up against. However, I'd much rather make this play with any pair than any ace (on the off chance 66 is called by A4o). You also have at least 5 and probably ~10 more hands to find a good one to double with.

5)I do *not* push that Q22 flop unless I'm on tilt. You have over 10 BB and your hand just isn't that vulnerable when ahead. Check and see what the limpers do; either a check raise, a check fold, a check call or a turn push are all going to be better than this depending on the action. If they have an A and a K between them, they've 6 outs; so be it.

6)All good. With 6 left K4o is as good a hand as any given you only have 2 hands left.

8)I prefer a limp but pushing is OK.

10)Fold.

Overall, it seems like you're overvaluing folding equity and undervaluing your existing stack. 5 BB is plenty to make a comeback with, especially with low blinds and especially with people that are happy to call all ins as 60/40 or 70/30 dogs. For this same reason, FE just isn't that useful at any of the 800 chip limits; you're going all in to steal blinds so you can steal them easier later...but if the BB has A5 you'll be called whether you have 20 chips or 2000. When in doubt, play your cards; FE only matters against players that think, and at the $30 level, that's maybe 3-4 per table.