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#1
11-23-2004, 08:41 AM
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..mac help micro??
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] big i-75 brawl falcs vs rockets....
most say lay 4 pts and take falcs..total 64..?? any insites?? i like kent st to creeeem c fla laying 8.5 on road, but wtf..?? gl tia micro need a winner [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#2
11-23-2004, 05:19 PM
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Re: ..mac help micro??
Things you have to look at are...
BG avg ROAD POINTS vs their opponents avg D points etc... EXAMPLE: Oklahoma gives up 10 a game at home........BG scored 24 or +14 dif N Ill. gives up 17 a game at home....BG scored 17 or 0 dif TEMP gives up 36 a game at home....... BG scored 70 or +34 dif OHIO gives up 10 a game at home.......BG scored 41 or +31 dif Cen Mich gives up 27 a game at home...BG scored 38 or +11 dif Notice a TREND here??? BG avg's scoring +18 more than their opp's D is used to giving up ON THE ROAD... I did the same for their HOME GAMES vs their opp's ROAD DEFENSE, and that margin is +14 I ran the same scenario for Toledo @ HOME (Toledo gives an avg of 17 per game at home) They hold their their opponents to an avg of 1 point less than they avg on the road... Temple avg's 20 per game on the road......they scored 17 or 0 dif Ball st. avg's 16 per game on the road....they scored 14 or -3 dif Ohio avg's 16 per game on the road........they scored 16 or 0 dif Cen Mich avg's 19 per game on the road....they scored 22 or +5 dif Notice a TREND here??? Toledo gives their opponents an avg of their road score. You can also look at OPPONENTS road D vs TOLEDO home scoring... In this scenario, TOLEDO avg's 38 per game while their (combined) opponents avg allowing 31 for a dif of + 7 Which would give TOLEDO a true home advantage of appx 8 In this whole scenario, the bottom line ( based on numbers alone ) is... Bowling Green has a "true" road avg dif of +23.25 Their opponents avg allowing 15 points per HOME GAME...and they avg 38 points per ROAD game... for an avg dif of +23 Their "road" opponents avg scoring 25 per game and BG allows an avg of 24 per "road game" for a dif of +.25 and a total "road advantage" of +23.25 If you apply this number to ALL of their road games (-23.25 as a favorite and +23.25 as a dog) They would be 4-1 ATS (which is what they are ATS on the road) This could just be a FLUKE...but there is something to the numbers I like to look at what teams give up per 100 yards of offense and defense because that usually tells a better story of how a team REALLY is all around... You'll notice that people will say "this team gives up 275 yards per game in passing yards" The thing is, thats often a sign of a team with a good offense that gets ahead and causes the other team to PASS instead of run... Whats important is, do the ALLOW them to score??? Thats where "points per 100 yards" comes into play. If a team allows 400 yards per game, but only allows 21 points per game, that usually means that they give up yards but not points, which usually means they are ahead in most of their games and they contain their opponents between the 20's and dont allow them to get the yardage that "counts" It's also an indication that their offense doesnt turn the ball over... When you turn the ball over (most times) it gives your opponent a "short" field and they can score points without having to cover alot of yardage. which would cause your DEFENSIVE points allowed per 100 yards, to be high. So... a team with a defense that has a low (around 5 or 6) points per 100 yards, is usually a pretty good defense... It's the same for offense... A team that has a low "points per 100 yards" usually means that they either turn the ball over too much, they cant get the ball in the end-zone OR they have a bad defense... It sounds odd but if you have a really good defense, your offensive points per 100 yards will be high. This is the case because your defense tends to cause turnovers and give your offense good field position ( short field = higher points per 100 yards ) A good defense will contribute because they can return fumbles and interceptions for scores...(the BALTIMORE RAVENS have one of the highest "points per 100 yards of offense" in the NFL) Most people would think you're crazy if you told them that the RAVENS had one of the highest points per 100 yards of offense in the NFL...the reason the do, is because of their DEFENSE... on the flip side, you can also look at NC STATE...they have the #1 ranked defense for yardage given up...but their points per 100 yards of defense is almost 12...which would mean they have issues with turning the ball over, allowing punt/kick returns etc...so you should not be scared by their defense(you want to have a defense that has under 6.5) Special teams come into play in this also... Do they have a good punter/kicker (the SEAHAWKS blow covers because their punter cant kick and he gives their opponents GREAT field position which allows for quick scores) The bottom line is, there are a few very key stats that you can look and they will tell you alot about a team... 1...points per game scored vs opponents HOME/AWAY points allowed 2...points per game allowed vs opponents HOME/AWAY points allowed 3...points per 100 yards of offense that your team scores HOME/AWAY 4...points per 100 yards of defense that your team allows HOME/AWAY 5...your teams avg kick/punt return yardage ALLOWED 6...your teams avg kick/punt return yardage Those are the key stats that I look at before I look at trends, rivalry etc... In this BG/TOLEDO game, it's hard to put a number on the "situation" both teams are playing for a major game... Factors are... Toledo at home...they are $$$... but only .400 as a dog BG this year...a machine that kills teams that are ranked lower than them Toledo stopped N. Ill's run game and BG couldnt Lines makers have just about HAD IT with faves covering... Numbers say BG wins by 17 History says Toledo wins by 7 My take...If Toledo wins I think it will be because they shut BG's offense down and the numbers tell me thats not likely so Im looking at BG and a very close look at the total... if you look at the line and total -4/64 it basically is saying that the ideal score will be 34-30 for that to be true, Toledo will have to score 6 above what BG allows on the road ( which is what they normally do at home ) and BG would have to score 18 above what Toledo allows at home ( which is a tall task but very close to what they do ) I just dont think that Toledo can stop BG's offense...they have a QB that just doesnt make mistakes and whenever Toledo loses the "turnover battle" THEY LOSE THE GAME...I have a hunch they will turn the ball over a few more times than BG..... The end........
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#3
11-23-2004, 06:18 PM
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Re: ..mac help micro??.
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] nice write-up rags..
but i wonder if there is a motivational difference here.... maybe a no bet game lol gl [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
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#4
11-23-2004, 07:44 PM
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Re: ..mac help micro??
If I HAD to bet I would side with BG....but on Toledo's turf it's too close to call imo and I am not betting this one.
The O/U on Pinny is up to 66.5 and I would be inclined to take the under and cross my fingers. Kent is now -9 at UCF on Pinny (maybe you can still get -8.5 elsewhere). I think Kent will clobber them also but that's an awful lot to lay on the road so this is also a no-bet for me. My opinions are a bit off these days anyway...I'm still in shell-shock that Miami was able to come back and win the division. Marshall losing back to back to Akron and BG (the Akron comeback was ridiculous) allowing Miami's comeback win to get them to the MAC-championship game (and possibly another bowl-game) was pretty miraculous.
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#6
11-23-2004, 08:50 PM
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Re: ..mac help micro??
I have a round robin parlay with 4 teams for 50 a way.
kent kent over BG BG over I also pounded Kent for 4 units, as well as teased BG and Kent for 3 units.
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