Raise The Gutshot? Call the Turn? (Who Needs a Convertor)

[toss]

<font color="green">Pacific Poker</font> .25/.50 Hold'em <font color="blue">(10 Handed)</font>

Preflop: Hero holds A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on Button.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, Small calls, Big calls.

Flop: (7 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 Players)</font>
Small checks, Big bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, everyone calls.

Was I right to raise here? I'm probably behind to A5 or A8 but I have outs to improve.

Turn: (21SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(7 Players)</font>
Small checks, Big Bets, UTG+1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 3-bets, CO caps, Hero...?

Everyone went crazy on the turn. What does everyone have? Should I just call and see the river?

[trumpman84]

Hmm..I'd probably fold. I'm pretty sure you're facing one if not two slow played flopped sets (now full houses or quads) so I don't think your flush is good even if it does hit. I think you're pretty close to drawing dead...your 2 ace outs may be good. 1-bet..sure...2 cold..probably..3 cold..probably not...4 cold...probably not. Although, some may say to call just b/c of the pot size, but I'm pretty sure there's a full boat out there.

[fairness]

easy fold, don't know about the flop raise either

[toss]

Yeah all the beting and raising made me want to fold. But I called since the pot was so big.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
easy fold, don't know about the flop raise either

[/ QUOTE ]
Flop raise is fine, with backdoor flush + gutshot + top pair.

Rob

[BadBatsuMaru]

We're talking about .25/.50 here. Two of them probably have AX. One or two of them probably have a 5. Maybe they have KK or QQ or JJ. I don't know if you can count on one of them having flopped trips or A5.

This is a pretty weird situation to begin with. You should probably go with your intuition. They might all be crazy and just think that building up a $20 pot is awesome. If you think they'll all call behind you, it might be correct to call, right? They might all cap it again on the river, which would be pretty annoying, but the bottom line is that you probably only need about a 10% chance of winning to make calling correct. There's about a 20% chance of you hitting your flush. Do you think you have a 50/50 chance of your flush winning?

It seems to me like a borderline situation and it all depends on how insane you think the table is (and the table is pretty insane if they are re-re-re-raising before it even gets to you).

[Shillx]

You are wrong IMO, calling the flop is the best play.

Brad

[Ajax410]

I don't really like this post.

I think your advocating that we should discount the credibility of a cap because it's .5/1 - when, in my opinion, caps should carry more weight in .5/1 because of how rarely they occur.

.5/1 is a game filled with passive players. If there is a cap, and a cap in which all 4 people raising were different, I am convinced that, even if the flush comes, I am not good. Granted, .5/1 is filled with bad players, but there is no way I'm calling a capped turn with a flush draw on a paired board in a passive game.

Alex

[Reef]

fold with a clear conscience unless all the raisers are maniacs

[toss]

Sneaky Small blinds held the quads and got paid off big. I folded the river when I missed my draw. One of em had Ax, another had a busted flush draw, and one of em was just mentally ill.