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#1
11-14-2004, 08:14 PM
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Splitting Pot Not Good Enough For Call?
Posting this here cause of relatively deep stacks, I think it plays just like a cash game hand. This is the $650 Monte Carlo Satellite, 1st place gets 16k, 2nd 1k, there are 22 people left, I doubled up early with a lucky set over set. I have 5.5k chips, my opponent has 2.5k is bad and passive and loose as far as I can tell. I open for 90 (blinds of 15/30) with Kd Td, the guy calls, everyone else folds.
Flop is Qh 9s 2c, I bet 150, he calls. Turn is Js, I bet 250, he calls. River is Ks, hm, not the best card, but I can't be too unhappy cause I did catch my gutshot on the turn. I don't think he's the type to bluff, and he has some sort of a hand so he'd probably happily check behind on the river so I bet out 350 instead of checking. He goes all in for 1800 more. 
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#2
11-14-2004, 08:35 PM
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Re: Splitting Pot Not Good Enough For Call?
He could easily be value raising two pair here. Why would he put you on a ten? Also, there are no legit draws that he could have had on the flop that beats you now. Worst case, you're tied. About the only thing I can think of him having that beats you is AsQs, but wouldn't he either reraise preflop or raise you on the flop or raise you on the turn? Same thing goes for QsTs if he would call you with that preflop. As2s? His play does not support any of these possible holdings. Maybe he called you on the flop with AT hoping to take it off of you later, but normal people would give up on the turn. AsTs? Lucky SOB. Really, it looks like JT QT KQ QJ more than anything else.
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#3
11-15-2004, 03:02 PM
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Re: Splitting Pot Not Good Enough For Call?
bump
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#4
11-15-2004, 03:13 PM
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Re: Splitting Pot Not Good Enough For Call?
I agree with random, it just doesn't look like AT. plus I think there has to be additional value in busting someone out. I call here every time, but I never play tourneys so I'm not really sure.
--turnipmonster
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#5
11-15-2004, 03:19 PM
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Re: Splitting Pot Not Good Enough For Call?
Hey Bruiser,
It's a crappy spot to be in, but I don't see how you can fold. 1725 in the pot. Win 3525 if he's bluffing, win 862 if he has a T, lose 1800 if he has AT/flush. He shouldn't have a flush, and he shouldn't have AT. It's tough to mark you with a ten based on the action, increasing the chance of a bluff or push with a ten. Not that this seems like the kind of guy to think about such things... But, one thing to consider might be that your river bet looks scared, which also increases his bluff frequency. Hope it worked out. ML4L
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#6
11-15-2004, 03:35 PM
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Re: Splitting Pot Not Good Enough For Call?
Why couldn't he have a flush? Seems like a very likely holding to me.
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#7
11-15-2004, 03:37 PM
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Re: Splitting Pot Not Good Enough For Call?
[ QUOTE ]
Why couldn't he have a flush? Seems like a very likely holding to me. [/ QUOTE ] And he called the flop with...? Unless it's Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I don't see how you can put him on a flush... ML4L
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#8
11-15-2004, 04:16 PM
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Re: Splitting Pot Not Good Enough For Call?
Well, any openeded straight draw, or gutshot straight draw, or a pair of queens. And I wouldn't say "unless it's Qs xs" because I think all these holdings are quite possible. Also, I forgot to put into my response, what do you think he could be bluffing with? Something he'd call my flop bet with hits the board somehow by the river so he could just call my river bet or fold since his hand has showdown value, what do you think he could have gotten to the river with that he's now going to bluff with? A bluff seems unlikely to me.
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