Serious downswing going on - bad luck or jinx in my game?

[77rules]

I've had a lousy couple of hours where I've lost 153 BBs in 430 hands. As far as I can tell I'm not doing anything different, and I know that these things can happen. However ... is there a way to determine if I'm playing bad or if the cards are stacked against me?

I have pokertracker.

[mack848]

Use PT to pick out 2 or 3 losers and post them here. Don't post hands where you were plain unlucky though.

[btspider]

post hands.. that's an extremely steep drop.. so either you went LAG or the deck was smacking you in the face preflop, but not postflop.

VPIP/PFR/W@SD/AF/etc may be useful to post to give a general idea of how much you were playing, but they say nothing of the appropriateness of your actions.. only their frequency.

[droolie]

Variance happens. You probably got unlucky and played poorly. It's hard to play the same as your normal game when your getting abused repeatedly. Whatever you do get your confidence back! If you play always expecting the bad beat you will not play your best.

I recently took a similar beating over a similar number of hands. I was playing poorly and getting horrendous luck too. Use this situation to your advantage. A good run of cards can lead to bad habits being formed without you even knowing it. Bad cards force you to analyze your every move. Is your VPIP @20%? Are you raising your premium hands and not cold-calling your marginal ones? Are you always calculating the pot odds, implied odds and pot equity before you act postflop? Are you repeatedly betting into hopeless situations when the resistance you get lets you know you are beaten? Do you always bluff when the flop misses you (a big leak in my game)?

Are you multi-tabling? If you are stop for a while until you fix your leaks. Sometimes paying attention to one table exclusively gives you the reads you need on your competitors that will turn a losing session into a winning one.

[MarkL444]

yeah you def need to post some hands. find some of your biggest losers and post them. of course you could be playing your losers right and your winners wrong, but more than likely big losers are a good place to start. what limit is this at, how many tables are you playing at once?

[beginner]

153BB in 430 hands?

On poker tracker under the session notes tab, pick out some of the longer recent losing sessions and check the VP$IP stat. If none deviate too much from your general VP$IP stat then you may be playing marginal hands too agressively (this happens to me when I am losing because I try to win it back quicker).

Post some of the hands where you lost the most money or those you aren't too sure about. You may have unknowingly started to play overcards too agressively or making a few loose calls on turn or river (these are usually the effects I have when I get upset about losing).

Taking a day or two off helps also to get back in with a fresh start. Good luck!

[77rules]

These are my stats. Black is how I usually play (excluding "the big drop"), red is "the big drop".

VP$iP: 21.66, 37.31 from SB
<font color="red">VP$iP: 21.31, 27.66 from SB</font>

Aggression Factor (PF, F, T, R): 0.48, 2.54, 3.01, 1.70
Total Aggro (with PF, excl PF): 1.32, 2.33

<font color="red">Aggression Factor (PF, F, T, R): 0.38, 1.88, 1.45, 1.22
Total Aggro (with PF, excl PF): 0.91, 1.46</font>

Where I fold (PF, F, T, R, NF): 72.80, 7.29, 2.80, 1.23, 15.88
<font color="red">Where I fold (PF, F, T, R, NF): 70.26, 11.94, 2.11, 2.11, 13.58</font>

C/R: 1.87 %.
<font color="red">C/R: 1.81 %.</font>

Win %: 9.81
<font color="red">Win %: 6.09</font>

My biggest losers are AKs (0/3), AQo (2/7), 88 (0/3), 99 (0/2), QJo (0/6), JJ (1/4), 66 (0/4) and KQo (3/8).

This may not be enough, but if anybody spots something, please let me know. You know you have it bad when the first thought that enters your mind when you see KK is "I just know I'm gonna lose money now".

[meep_42]

These stat differences are meaningless over a 430 hand sample.

Post hands, not stats.

-d