Electoral College Prediction and Analysis (long and detailed)

[Dynasty]

I thought it would be fun to make a comprehensive election prediction and post it. For those who only want the final result, I'm going with Bush 286, Kerry 252 with thirteen states being decided by 4% points or less (147 Electoral College votes).

Clearly, the country is divided about 50-50 right now and either candidate can win. The divide is especially noticable in the Red State-Blue State nature of the Electoral College. Very few states should switch sides compared to the 2000 election.

This election would be a blowout if it weren't for one decision by President Bush. That's the decision to invade Iraq. At the time of invasion, Bush was still enjoying job approval rates in excess of 70%. If Bush had simply played it politically safe, I think he'd cruise to a small landslide victory (56-44). But, Bush, unlike most Presidents before him, seemed much more willing to spend "political capital" and push a neo-conservative agenda when the country wasn't ready to go so fast. From a political perspective, Bush energized both his own base and the Democratic base whose charge of "Anybody but Bush" has resonated for nearly two years.

Bush's ideological approach to government was by design not only to further his agenda but also to get re-elected. I think the dynamics of the campaigns have been shaped by Karl Rove, Bush's campaign manager and senior political advisor. After the 2000 election, Rove embarked on a re-election approach which was radically different from anything we've seen before. Rove's 2000 post-election analyis showed that nearly four million social conservatives stayed home instead of voting (presumably for Bush). Rove decided not to expand the President's constituency by appealing to moderate voters which is the standard approach. Instead, he wanted to appeal to the Republican base and motivate a big turnout. That apporach was hugely succesful in the mid-term 2002 elections which put the Senate back in Republican control. In 2004, it's going to butt heads with the "Anybody but Bush" army the Democrats have behind them.

The winner of this election is going to be the side which turns out the vote better. I'm giving the nod to Bush and Rove since the voters they targeted are more likely to vote and more likely to vote for Bush.

Here's my state by state breakdown. I tried to give a % vote to third party candidates where appropriate.

18 completely safe Bush states (144 Electoral College votes):

Utah (5) 69-29-2
Wyoming (3) 69-30-1
Idaho (4) 63-34-3
Nebraska (5) 63-35-2
Oklahoma (7) 62-38-0
North Dakota (3) 61-38-1
Kansas (6) 61-39-0
Alaska (3) 58-37-5
Montana (3) 59-38-3
Texas (34) 60-39-1
Kentucky (8) 60-40-0
Alabama (9) 59-41-0
Indiana (11) 59-41-0
South Carolina (8) 58-41-1
South Dakota (3) 57-42-1
Mississippi (6) 57-43-0
Georgia (15) 56-44-0
Tennessee (11) 56-44-0

10 completely safe Kerry states + D.C. (153 Electoral College Votes):

District of Columbia (3) 84-12-4
Massachusetts (12) 65-32-3
Rhode Island (4) 59-38-3
New York (31) 48-40-2
Illinois (21) 56-43-1
Connecticut (7) 55-43-2
Maryland (10) 55-44-1
Vermont (3) 54-43-3
California (55) 54-44-2
Delaware (3) 54-45-1
Maine (4) 54-45-1

I can't envision any scenario where the 28 above states and D.C. don't go to the candidate I have them listed under.

Current tally: Bush 144, Kerry 153.



6 safe Bush states (61 Electoral College votes):

Arizona (10) 54-46-0
Louisiana (9) 54-46-0
North Carolina (15) 54-46-0
Colorado (9) 53-46-1
West Virginia (5) 53-46-1
Virginia (13) 53-47-0

3 safe Kerry states (33 Electoral College votes):

New Jersey (15) 53-46-1
Washington (11) 52-46-2
Oregon (7) 52-47-1

The 9 safe sates are only going to switch colluns if something strange happens. Kerry would need a completely unprecedented colossal turnout to challenge Bush's 6 safe states. Bush would need the same or a strange Nader effect to win in Washington or Oregon.

New Jersey is something of an oddity this year. Bush has gained and Kerry has been hurt by three issues.

1. Many New Jersey families lost loved ones in the 9/11 attacks.
2. The Republican convention got huge local coverage since it was in New York.
3. The New Jersey state Democratic party is mired in scandal, including a Governor who is resigning from office.

Gore won New Jersey by 16 points. These three factors shouldn't be enough to eliminate such a huge starting advantage for Kerry.

Current tally: Bush 205, Kerry 186



3 semi-safe Bush states (22 Electoral College votes)

Arkansas (6) 52-48-0
Missouri (11) 52-48-0
Nevada (5) 51-47-2

2 semi-safe Kerry states (14 Electoral College votes)

Minnesota (10) 51-47-2
Hawaii (4) 51-47-2

Kerry made a late bid for Arkansas by spending some campaign funds on TV advertising there. Also, President Clinton campaigned there on Monday. But, no poll has shown Kerry up in that state. Usually, the polls have Bush up by 5 points or more but one showed a tie.

Kerry gave up on Missour early, probably too early. If Dick Gepardt had been his Vice Presidential running mate, this could have been a real fight. This seems like the one state where Kerry dropped the ball.

Nevada and the southwest in general was where Kerry hoped to pick up some Bush states rather than going to the traditional south. But, this is still Republican territory and Kerry is the wrong Democrat to make gains here.

Minnesota is a long time Democratic stronghold. It was the only state the didn't vote for Reagan in 1984. But, the demographics of the state have been changing. When they elected Jesse Ventura as Governor in 1998, Minnesotans demonstrated they're very willing to break from tradition. In four years, the Republicans might have this state.

Hawaii is the big late surprise. Everyone had it as a completely safe Kerry state until two recent polls showed Bush with a 1% point lead. I'm giving it to Kerry based on historic trends. But, Hawaii did elect a Republican Governor in 2002. So, maybe I'm just unwilling to change.

Current tally: Bush 227, Kerry 200



That leaves us with the Crazy Eight Battleground states worth a total of 111 Electoral College votes. This is where I expect the election to be decided. In truth, all these states are not really predictable. The public polls and the actions of both campaigns have made it clear all these states were in play to the very end. But, since a prediction has to be made, here I go.

4 battleground Bush states (59 Electoral College votes):

Iowa (7) 51-48-1
New Mexico (5) 50-48-2
Ohio (20) 51-49-0
Florida (27) 50-49-1

4 battleground Kerry states (52 Electoral College votes):

Michigan (17) 51-48-1
Pennsylvania (21) 51-49-0
New Hampshire (4) 50-49-1
Wisconsin (10) 50-49-1

What can be said? The public polls have all these states within the margin of error. Both campaigns have been visiting these states in the last days of the campaign. They'll be won or lost based on turnout.

In the end, I only have three states changing collumns. Kerry is picking up New Hampshire while Bush is picking up Iowa and New Mexico.

Final tally: Bush 286, Kerry 252

A lot of these battleground states are in the east so we could know who wins the election before 11pm EST. But, if it's very close, we may have to wait hours after polls have closed in New Mexico, Nevada, and even Hawaii before the networks can make a projection.

[andyfox]

Terific analysis, clearly argued and written.

[lorinda]

Thanks Dynasty, nice post.

Lori

[J.A.Sucker]

I think you are correct. I hope you aren't thought. We'll see tomorrow (maybe...)!

[LinusKS]

You're missing two important elements: the incumbent effect, and new voters.

Historically, challengers pick up around two points when voters actually go into the booths. Pollsters tend to explain this in terms of undecideds breaking for the challenger (or against the incumbent, however you want to look at it).

Also, large turn-outs tend to favor Democrats. Small turn-outs tend to favor the incumbent.

Kerry has both working in his favor.

In FL, for example, Gallup shows early voters (30% have already voted) breaking for Kerry 51%-43%.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...1-poll-x_x.htm

[LinusKS]

I'm guessing Kerry will win both FL and OH.

The chances that Bush will win both of them - I think - are remote.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
Historically, challengers pick up around two points when voters actually go into the booths. Pollsters tend to explain this in terms of undecideds breaking for the challenger (or against the incumbent, however you want to look at it).

[/ QUOTE ]

People keep saying this as if it were gospel. Its not. It didnt break that way in the last 3 incumbent re-elections. In the last 3 elections it didnt break this way.

As for the large turnout, I think people are also too willing to give this as a major advantage to Kerry. Im not so sure. In the 2002 election cycle, the GOP 72 hour GOTV campaign paid huge dividends. Also many people expect a much larger showing among evangelical Christians. However, I dont have data handy on the history of these so I will concede the point.

[largeeyes]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing Kerry will win both FL and OH.

The chances that Bush will win both of them - I think - are remote.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, the odds are about 37-40%

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
Also many people expect a much larger showing among evangelical Christians.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you might want to replace the word expect with the word hope or pray for.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Dynasty I'm going to echo the chorus but this is great stuff. Better than anything I've seen by the major pundits.

My fear is that the several states will be close and we end up with Florida 2000 times 6.

Belaboring the obvious but that won't be good for the nation [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

~ Rick