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#1
11-02-2004, 04:36 PM
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My set got c-r on the turn, how to navigate the river?
Villain is TAG, I was a bit confused about being cold-called by him since he had very low Cold-Calling-% in my tracker.
Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) Preflop: HouseLion is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">HouseLion raises</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, Button <font color="purple">(TAG1)</font> calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls. Flop: (9.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font> MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="CC3333">HouseLion bets</font>, TAG1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds. Turn: (5.66 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font> <font color="CC3333">HouseLion bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">TAG1 raises</font>, HouseLion calls. River: (9.66 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font> HouseLion? Bet out or go for the check-raise? Pro and con with both? How many of you would take the free SD if the houselion checks to you and with what hands? (You'll have to put yourself into villains place here and "forget" you know what hand I had.) Should I 3-bet the turn? Remember villain isnt the average party-clown. 
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#2
11-02-2004, 04:40 PM
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Re: My set got c-r on the turn, how to navigate the river?
3-bet the turn. given that you didn't 3-bet the turn, you have a pretty easy c/r on the river.
If you 3-bet and he caps, I may still bet the river boat.
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#3
11-02-2004, 04:45 PM
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Re: My set got c-r on the turn, how to navigate the river?
Why would you 3-bet the turn? Wouldn't ATs be a very likely holding or do you put him on KQs (or maybe QJs), and the c-r is for the turned 2-pair vs House-Lions presumed TPTK.
I take a boat to 3 bets or a river-cap most days of the week. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I have ruled out KK/QQ as a holding since I'm pretty confident Villain would have 3-bet rather than cold-call preflop if holding QQ.
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#4
11-02-2004, 04:46 PM
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Re: My set got c-r on the turn, how to navigate the river?
[ QUOTE ]
If you 3-bet and he caps, I may still bet the river boat [/ QUOTE ] Are you implying that this isn't an easy river bet if villian caps the turn? It seems to me that if villian is decent, the only hand on the river that beats hero is 88 since he would've 3-bet KK preflop. Wouldn't a cap from villian be more likely to be a straight here, maybe ATs? Or were you implying that this would be a good situation to c/r on the river?
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#5
11-02-2004, 04:49 PM
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Re: My set got c-r on the turn, how to navigate the river?
You got check raised on turn? I thought villian is button...
Nonetheless, if villian is tag, only hands i can see him cold calling pf are 88 and KQs and very slim, but possible is ATs. Hands that beat you like KK and QQ TAG would reraise pf. I would think you are ahead most of the time here and reraise the turn. If he did play ATs like this, I'd still be happy to reraise turn because have 10 outs to redraw. Since you did call turn raise, checkraise on river is good.
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#7
11-02-2004, 05:02 PM
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Re: My set got c-r on the turn, how to navigate the river?
Right, my bad, I got RAISED, not c-r.
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#8
11-02-2004, 05:04 PM
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Re: My set got c-r on the turn, how to navigate the river?
The kind of hand a TAG might cold call a preflop raise with is a big suited broadway like AQs, AJs, ATs, or KQs. There may be others to consider if he is tricky or comparatively passive, but a low cold-calling % seems to suggest this isn't the case.
Of those, I doubt AJ or AQ would raise the turn, and KQs would probably have been heard from on the flop unless he's either tricky or waiting for a non-club turn to raise. ATs makes the most sense here, and I think you were correct in just calling the turn. Now for the river. He probably bets AT and checks just about anything else mentioned. In the heat of moment, I would've gone for the check-raise because my read is that he's aggressive and will value bet what he thinks is a winner. I have a feeling though that that's exactly what you did and he checked it through. If you bet this, you get one sure bet. If you don't, you will usually get 2 bets against an aggressive player. Edit: The more I look at this, the more I think KQs is just as likely as ATs. I think you can 3-bet the turn knowing you are either ahead or have a considerable number of outs.
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#9
11-02-2004, 05:23 PM
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Re: My set got c-r on the turn, how to navigate the river?
I think two pair is a lot more likely than AT. Throw KK and QQ out the window if he's a TAG, he would've 3-bet those all day. I 3-bet the turn and go balls out on the river.
FWIW, I bet my left nut that he had KQs.
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#10
11-02-2004, 05:30 PM
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Re: My set got c-r on the turn, how to navigate the river?
I'm not a big fan of the river check-raise here. I'm putting TAG on KQs, not ATs. Unless TAG thinks hero is a total moron, he's got to put hero on one of these likely hands: JJ, QQ, KK, AK, or AA. Out of all of those, he now only beats AK. I think it's very possible he'll check it through.
Also, even if he *does* have AT, he may check when the board pairs. Unlikely, but possible. And if you lead, he may raise, allowing you to three-bet. You got your happy card, it would suck to not make even one bet off of it.
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