When does a rush become a crush?

Jedi Flopper · #1 11-01-2004, 01:33 PM

I got an email from a small poker site advertising the fact that they had nightly 10+1 rebuy tourneys with a guarenteed prize pool of 1K. The thing that caught my eye was the fact that they said there were never more than 40 people participating in them. Because of the huge overlay I thought I would give it a try.

That night, I made a deposit, entered the tourney and won it! I was unable to play the next few nights, but I have played every nigt for the last 5 nights. There are never more than 35-40 people and they only pay the top 5. My results for the last 5 nights are 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, and 2nd. I have cashed out over $2500 in the last week.

Here is my question. I understand short term varience and the concept of hitting a rush of cards, but when does a rush become a crush? If I continued these results for another week, would that be enough to show my long term +EV from this site and this nightly tournament in particular? How long would it take to eliminate short term luck as an explaination for the results?

I am not an expert player by any body's standards. I do not claim to be. I guess I am asking if I happend to find a small pond where I am currently the big fish or if I have a golden horseshoe rammed up my backside. I look forward to some 2+2 comments on this situation.

Jackarama_ · #2 11-01-2004, 01:41 PM

WHAT SITE IS IT? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Chief911 · #3 11-01-2004, 01:46 PM

I'm sorry, but I'll require the name of the site PM'd (Not posted mind you [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] ) before I can respond to this thread. Thank you for your cooperation.

Nick

Jedi Flopper · #4 11-01-2004, 01:54 PM

No way I tell the name of the site...at least not until I fail to cash 3 or 4 times in a row [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Jedi Flopper · #5 11-02-2004, 10:35 AM

Well, I busted on the bubble last night so the streak is over. I took a bad beat in the first rounds of the final table (My JJ vs 2 guys both all in both holding AT and the board came 2345x) but I was able to build my stack back to about average by the time we were down to 6. The hand that busted me was my BB. 2 limpers, and I held KQ. The flop came KKJ! I bet, the big stack calls. Turn is a blank, I push big stack calls. The big stack has KJ, the river is no help and I finish in 6th place with no cash [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]