Blinds

[William Jockusch]

You are in the big blind with 32o in a 15/30 game. The blinds are $10 and $15. In addition, the cutoff has just joined the table, and posts $15 to enter the game. The player in front of the cutoff raises to $30, and everyone folds to you. If you call, it will cost you $15 to enter a pot of $82 (30+15+10+30-3). Is it worth it?

What if the cutoff had missed his blind, and was posting $25?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
You are in the big blind with 32o in a 15/30 game. The blinds are $10 and $15. In addition, the cutoff has just joined the table, and posts $15 to enter the game. The player in front of the cutoff raises to $30, and everyone folds to you. If you call, it will cost you $15 to enter a pot of $82 (30+15+10+30-3). Is it worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[Gabe]

Although you may not be worse than 4-1 dog on average, if you both have enough to play all the rounds, you should fold. If you either of you was going to be all-in, you should probably call.

[Stork]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are in the big blind with 32o in a 15/30 game. The blinds are $10 and $15. In addition, the cutoff has just joined the table, and posts $15 to enter the game. The player in front of the cutoff raises to $30, and everyone folds to you. If you call, it will cost you $15 to enter a pot of $82 (30+15+10+30-3). Is it worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]



Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? With 32o, can you really feel good if you flop a pair? You'd need at either two pair or a straight draw to continue, and hitting two pair on the flop is like 49-1 against. Not sure of the odds of hitting a straight draw, although they are obviously better than the odds of hitting two pair. Still though, suppose the board comes 457. What if a 6 comes on the turn?
I fold this, but expect Nate to change my mind with his next reply.

[mmcd]

You'd need either two pair or a straight draw to continue

Nope.

I'm guessing you're a little on the weak tight side?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are in the big blind with 32o in a 15/30 game. The blinds are $10 and $15. In addition, the cutoff has just joined the table, and posts $15 to enter the game. The player in front of the cutoff raises to $30, and everyone folds to you. If you call, it will cost you $15 to enter a pot of $82 (30+15+10+30-3). Is it worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]



Yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? With 32o, can you really feel good if you flop a pair? You'd need at either two pair or a straight draw to continue, and hitting two pair on the flop is like 49-1 against. Not sure of the odds of hitting a straight draw, although they are obviously better than the odds of hitting two pair. Still though, suppose the board comes 457. What if a 6 comes on the turn?
I fold this, but expect Nate to change my mind with his next reply.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suppose that CO will raise with the following hands:

AA-55, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AKo-A8o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo

You are a 29-71 dog against that range of hands in terms of showdown equity, meaning that a call would clearly be correct if it put you all-in. Such a call would make you around $8.75 or 0.29 BB.

Of course, this isn't showdown poker, and you do not have a hand that is particularly easy to play postflop. So let's take a look at some odds that are a little bit more relevant in terms of postflop play:

(1) You have a 27% chance of flopping one pair.
(2) You have a 2.3% chance of flopping an OESD (requires exactly 45x)
(3) You have a 2% chance of flopping two pair
(4) Yoy have a 1.3% chance of flopping trips, or a full house.
(5) You have a .7% chance of flopping a straight.

These are the flops that you're looking for. It isn't quite this cut-and-dried. You probably want to continue on a flop like 964 rainbow, which gives you a gutshot but is otherwise uncoordinated. Similarly, you'd have to consider discarding your pair on a flop like KQ2. But it should give us a reasonable basis for estimation.

Case 1. You flop one pair.

According to PokerStove, you have approximately 56% equity if the first card that comes off is a 2 or a 3 (ignoring the other cards). Let's use the following assumptions to handle postflop, both of which I believe to be reasonable:

i) Each side puts in 1.5 BB postflop on the average. Therefore, the total pot at stake will be 5.73 BB, which includes 3 BB that go in postflop and 2.73 BB that go in preflop. You win a share of this pot which is equal to your postflop equity.
ii) However, there is a "penalty" for being out of position. This penalty will depend on how well your opponent plays postflop. It is probably on the order of 0.25 BB against a weak opponent and 0.50 BB against a strong opponent.

We estimate that, if you flop one pair, you will win 56% of 5.73 BB, less the out-of-position penalty, less the 2.0 BB that you invest in the pot yourself (.5 BB preflop and 1.5 BB postflop).

This equals
5.73 BB x 56% - 2.0 BB - 0.5 BB = 3.21 BB - 2.5 BB = 0.71 BB if the opponent plays well, and,

5.73 BB x 56% - 2.0 BB - 0.25 BB = 3.21 BB - 2.5 BB = 0.96 BB if the opponent does not play well.

Case 2. You flop an OSED. If the flop contains a 4 and a 5, your equity is 52%, according to PokerStove (remember that making a pair will often give you the best hand).

Using the same equation as above, your expecation on such a flop is:

5.73 BB x 52% - 2.0 BB - 0.5BB = 2.98 BB - 2.5 BB = 0.48 BB.

We add back 0.25 BB if your opponent does not play well, which is 0.73 BB.

Case 3. You flop two pair. Your equity is around 85%, according to PokerStove. Your expectation is

5.73 BB x 85% - 2.0 BB - 0.50 BB = 4.87 BB - 2.5 BB = 2.37 BB if your opponent plays well, and 2.62 BB if your opponent does not play well.

Case 4. You flop trips. Your equity is around 93.5%, according to pokerstove. Your expectation is

5.73 BB x 93.5% - 2.0 BB - 0.5 BB = 5.36 BB - 2.5 BB = 2.86 BB if your opponent plays well, and 3.11 BB if your opponent does not play well.

Case 5. You flop a straight. Your equity is on the order of 91.5%, according to PokerStove (remember that your straight isn't a nut straight). Your expectation is

5.73 BB x 93.5% - 2.5 BB = 5.24 BB - 2.0 BB - 0.5 BB = 2.74 BB if your opponent plays well, and 2.99 BB if he doesn't.

To summarize. First, against an opponent who plays well and costs you the full 0.50 BB penalty for being out of position:

1) Flop one pair (27%). Expecation = +0.71 BB.
2) Flop OESD (2.3%). Expectation = +0.48 BB
3) Flop two pair (2.0%). Expectation = +2.37 BB
4) Flop trips (1.3%). Expecation = +2.86 BB
5) Flop straight (0.7%). Expectation = +2.74 BB
6) Flop nothing (66.7%). Expectation = -0.50 BB

Total expectation = -0.03 BB

Now, against the opponent who does not play as well and only costs you 0.25 BB for being out of position:

1) Flop one pair (27%). Expecation = +0.96 BB.
2) Flop OESD (2.3%). Expectation = +0.73 BB
3) Flop two pair (2.0%). Expectation = +2.62 BB
4) Flop trips (1.3%). Expecation = +3.11 BB
5) Flop straight (0.7%). Expectation = +2.99 BB
6) Flop nothing (66.7%). Expectation = -0.50 BB

Total expectation = +0.06 BB

The call looks to be slightly profitable, unless your opponent plays very well.

Note that the presence of the CO's dead money does make a difference. If we recalculate the numbers from above without the CO's blind, we get a range of -0.04 BB to -0.13 BB, depending on how well your opponent plays.

On the other hand, if the CO had posted a $15 blind, plus $10 in dead money, the range runs from +0.04 BB to +0.12 BB, so you'd want to defend, even if your opponent did play well.

BTW, most of your profit comes from flopping a pair and having it hold up. If you are not comfortable continuing on with your hand when you flop bottom pair, then you should probably fold.

[William Jockusch]

Nate --

First of all, thanks for going to all that work!

A couple of things:

"If the first card off is a 2 or a 3". This is not enough to make sure you flopped 1 pair. It also includes flops where you get 2 pair, etc. To make your flop 1 pair, you should make the first card off be a 2 or a 3, and the other cards not be a 2 or a 3.

But in the other direction, I'm certain you've overestimated how much of a penalty it is to be out of position. If you want to talk about this, let's do it in another topic though. It's definitely worthy of discussion.

[Stork]

First, thank you for the detailed reply. You clearly thought much more about the situation than I did. Still though, I think you're giving one pair too much credit in this situation. If the flop is say 639, your pair could be good. But if theres a face card on the flop, you may have to be more cautious. It is probably still correct to bet, but what do you do if you are raised? If the opponent is playing back at you, can you ever feel comfortable with bottom pair? Even if you're ahead, he probably has redraw to top pair. It seems you would have reverse implied odds in this situation. I don't know how PokerStove calculates EV, but I'm sure it can't take the betting into account.(?) If you flop a pair and your opponent does too, or if he was holding a pocket pair, you could be in for some trouble. Even though it isn't too hard to throw away 32o, you'd probably at least bet the flop. And on the rare occasions when you're opponent makes a higher straight than you, or flops trips to your two-pair, you'll lose a ton of money. Those are hardly worth considering though, but I still want to point them out. As I said before, in when you flop one pair it seems you will typically have reverse implied odds. Your opponent may even be able to bluff you out if a ten or higher comes. And flopping one pair is far more likely than any other playable flop.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
First, thank you for the detailed reply. You clearly thought much more about the situation than I did. Still though, I think you're giving one pair too much credit in this situation. If the flop is say 639, your pair could be good. But if theres a face card on the flop, you may have to be more cautious. It is probably still correct to bet, but what do you do if you are raised? If the opponent is playing back at you, can you ever feel comfortable with bottom pair? Even if you're ahead, he probably has redraw to top pair. It seems you would have reverse implied odds in this situation. I don't know how PokerStove calculates EV, but I'm sure it can't take the betting into account.(?) If you flop a pair and your opponent does too, or if he was holding a pocket pair, you could be in for some trouble. Even though it isn't too hard to throw away 32o, you'd probably at least bet the flop. And on the rare occasions when you're opponent makes a higher straight than you, or flops trips to your two-pair, you'll lose a ton of money. Those are hardly worth considering though, but I still want to point them out. As I said before, in when you flop one pair it seems you will typically have reverse implied odds. Your opponent may even be able to bluff you out if a ten or higher comes. And flopping one pair is far more likely than any other playable flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerStove only gives you an estimate of showdown equity, and does not take into account the impact of betting during the course of the hand.

If you go back and worth through my estimates, though, you'll find that I actually have you losing money on the postflop betting rounds when you flop a pair (anywhere from -0.07 BB to -0.32 BB depending on how well your opponent plays). However, you make money overall when you flop a pair because of the dead money already in the pot.

[Stork]

Ok, thanks. It still doesn't seem right to me, but I can't argue with the numbers.