Good laydown, or weak-tight?

[vetman81]

So my wife and I were playing 5/10 O8 at the local casino tonight, and I was watching her play the following hand. There were literally 7 people at the table that didnt fold more than one hand per orbit, so there were at least 7 or 8 people to every flop. They are playing all sorts of hands, and calling to the end with little to nothing. Anyways, Jill gets A22T on the button and calls. 8 people to the flop.

Flop: 6 6 2 rainbow

SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, and then to my wife. She is thinking about what to do when SB anounces reraise. The dealer stops him, Jill thinks for a bit and decides to fold. SB raises, BB folds, UTG caps, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls. 5 to the turn.

Turn: 7 spades...now there are two spades on board

Capped with all 5 still in.

River: 9 hearts

Capped with three people in.

Now at the time I told her that she was most likely ahead on the flop, but you have to figure that both sixes are out, plus the possibility of people with overpairs catching a bigger full house. I told her that she made the correct decision (IMO). What does everyone think? Results to come later.

BTW, this was the juiciest I have seen this game here. Unfortunately, it was one of those nights where neither one of us was getting many hands, and we had to watch as these guys pulled down pot after pot with K864 and the like [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

[3rdEye]

IMO, I think you're ahead enough of the time to call this down to the river--especially in the sort of game you're describing. There are enough players who think 666Ax is good here that I think she's justified in playing the hand out, although I would be worried about someone holding 62.

If, as you said, she's ahead on the flop, how can she lay this down? I understand that in Omaha a drawing hand can be a favorite, but in this case, if she's ahead on the flop, her opponents are drawing to the kickers to their 6s, assuming they aren't overplaying A3. While the SB's premature reraise is scary, I've seen too many players cap with a draw to the nut low to fold here.

Easy call, all the way to the river, unless there are facts about Hero's opponents' postflop play that would indicate otherwise, in my opinion.

[Ghazban]

I don't know if the fold is definitely correct or not but, with the betting probably getting capped on every street and the likelihood that she's only playing for half the pot, its probably a fairly safe play (even if its -EV, which I'm not sure it is).

Assuming both other sixes are in play (possibly a large assumption), either person filling up takes away any chance of deuces full winning (unless, of course, the case 2 hits). Against 62xx, she's almost drawing dead (she'll need running tens). In the worst case scenario where deuces full is good on the flop, the other two hands are 6abc and 6def where a,b,c,d,e, and f are all of different ranks. In this case, there are 18 cards left in the deck that will give someone a better full house (and dueces full is an underdog to hold up with two cards to come). In the best case, the hands containing the other two sixes are holding the exact same ranks (say 6abc) and there are only 6 cards left to give one of them a better boat. However, anybody else in the hand holding a pair could ALSO make a better full house if they hit.

Maybe I'm too weak-tight, but I think this is a good fold (one that, in the heat of the moment, I probably wouldn't make).

[Buzz]

Vetman - I think before the betting starts, with the lowest possible underboat on the river against a full, loose table Jill figures to win roughly half the time and lose half the time. That’s not considering the credibility of the bets and raises of some of Jill’s opponents.

Since Jill can see there probably will be at least five opponents in the hand, she can think of herself and two opponents as putting in money for high and the other three opponents putting in money for low. There aren't necessarily three playing for high and three playing for low, but that's an easy way to think about the money that is going into the pot - so as to figure pot odds and fresh money odds. If Jill thinks about the pot that way, she's getting two to one fresh money odds for her hand.

Does she figure to win more than one third of the time? (I believe the answer is yes). If so, and if she’s getting two to one fresh money (let alone what’s already in the pot) then she has favorable odds to play. (She even has favorable odds to raise).

Is one of Jill’s opponents holding 66XX (flopped quad sixes) or 62XX (a flopped six boat)? It’s possible. Without the frenzied betting, I’d say unlikely - but then there’s the frenzied betting to consider.

You indicated play at the table was very loose, but was there often fruitcake raising after the flop?

If so, I think Jill should have taken the heat, unpleasant as that might have been.

If not, whether to call or not seems a close decision. Two opponents, each with a six could be driving the betting. Anyone with A34X or A35X might also be driving the betting. There are various other possibilities as well.

Let’s suppose frenzied raising after such a flop as this is not normal to the game and let’s suppose two opponents each have a six for such raising to take place.

In that case (against two opponents who each have a six), I think it’s a close call, one way or the other. Folding is reasonable, as is taking the heat. My preference would be not to call, but to either fold or raise - and which to do seems a toss-up.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[iblucky4u2]

Looking at Buzz's reply offers some great insight into the percentages (as always). The other things to consider IMHO are
A-most likely you are probably playing for 1/2 the pot.
B-In the long run, even if you win the % that Buzz states, you will have a much greater variance in your stack. With the capping on all rounds, do you want to put up that much to hope to win?
I think your wife made a better play than I would have [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]