Small Stakes Omaha - 4 Pair after the turn

[Cleveland Guy]

I am trying to learn Omaha, and had this hand happen the other night. I don't have the exact hand history but I will try and re-create it the best I can.

Hero is in CO and dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

The 3 players limp in front of me, I limp. SB and BB both come along. 6 to the flop.

Flop K T 8 Rainbow. SB Checks, BB Bets, 1 Call and a couple folds, I call. SB Calls (4 Remaining)

Turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] putting 2 diamonds on the board.

SB Checks, BB Bets, MP Raises. It's my action.

I know my only way out is to hit the full house. Any pair on the board gives it to me, but is this a place I want to be chasing at here?

Also - just to clearify this is not O H/L, just regular Omaha

[BradleyT]

8 outs to hit - 2BB to call - potential re-raise by original bettor. Although your FH would most likely be good the only one you have the nuts on is if a K hits on the river.

If pot odds are there (it looks pretty close) I would call.

[benfranklin]

You have 8 outs with 44 cards unseen, so the odds against hitting any full boat are 11-2. There are 8 big bets in the pot, so a 2BB call is getting 8-2. If the BB calls the raise, you are getting 9-2 going to the river.

If the big blind calls the raise, and if you make your boat, and if you can get another bet out of both the BB and the raiser on the river, then your implied odds are 11-2 and you have a coin toss. A lot depends on the game. It sounds loose, so the BB might go along, and the raiser likely has a big straight and will bet it hard. It's hard to fold those good-looking hands. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Buzz]

Cleveland Guy - Bottom line: unless BB and MP both have straights and neither re-raises after you call, you don't have odds to call.

Therefore, I'd fold.

I'll try to take you through my reasoning.

If the board is KQT8, an opponent holding AJXX or J9XX has a straight. Sometimes nobody has the cards necessary to make a straight (in which case your two pair might win), but when MP raises, assuming MP is not given to frivolous raises, it looks as though MP does have a straight - and possibly BB also has a straight - or possibly BB has a set or even two pairs (or nothing) - hard to tell.

If BB or MP does have a set, and if it's a set of kings, you're drawing dead (no outs). If the board does pair, BB or MP with kings full will have a better full house than you.

But BB bet and MP raised after the turn, which was a queen. Possibly either BB or MP has a set of queens. If so MP makes a full house with queens full if the board pairs on the river - in which case you need to catch a king on the river to win (and that only gives you two outs).

So assuming BB and MP have not both bet frivolously on the third betting round, it looks very much as though you need to make a full house to win, and possibly even if you do make a full house, it will be a losing full house.

The situation looks bleak.

8 cards make you a full house (possibly a losing full house) while the other 36 cards do not.

Your hand odds are 36 to 8, or 36/8 or 4.5/1 or 4.5 to 1 against.

You need there to be 9 big bets (18 small bets) in the pot at the showdown if the board does pair. If so, 9/2 = 4.5, the break even point. Sounds to me like there might be 6+4 small bets plus, assuming BB just calls, 4 big bets in the pot. That does equal 18 small bets (or 9 big bets) - so even if you can't collect a bet from an opponent on the fourth betting round, if the board does pair, and if any full house is a winner, then you have proper odds to call.

But you're caught in the middle between MP and BB. You don't know if BB will re-raise or not. You have to assume if they both have the nut straight the betting will be capped on the third betting round. And in that case, you'd be stuck calling the re-raises, and overall you'd only be getting 13/4 pot odds, and maybe 15/4 implied pot odds, should the board pair on the river. And that's not greater than 4.5 to 1, (which it has to be for you to have proper odds to call and draw).

And if MP holds a pair of kings or queens for the raise, rather than the nut straight the raise represents, or if BB holds a pair of kings or queens for the initial bet, or if BB holds a king and a queen, or has some other hand that only makes two pair, then you might have to split the pot if the board pairs on the river.

When you put it all together, unless (1) BB and MP both have straights, (2) neither also has two pair as a back-up re-draw to the straight, and (3) there are no re-raises behind you after you call - then you don't have favorable odds for a call.

Hard to tell exactly what they have. And hard to tell exactly what they'll do after you call.

In any event, unless BB and MP both have straights and neither re-raises, you don't have odds to call.

Fold.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Cleveland Guy]

Thanks for the detailed advice and analyis.

I called, and a 3rd Diamond hit on the river - giving me 2 pairs. This was an easy river fold, but now I know to save the 2 bets.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 8 outs with 44 cards unseen, so the odds against hitting any full boat are 11-2. There are 8 big bets in the pot, so a 2BB call is getting 8-2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. I had a brain-blankout writing out the odds above, and saw it too late to edit my post. Eight outs with 44 unseen cards is 9-2. If the BB calls, you are getting 9-2 pot odds, and possibly 11-2 implied odds on the river. So you have the odds to call, but that's based on the assumption that you will win if you hit the full boat. That looks borderline here, especially if you hit anything other than the kings.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the detailed advice and analyis.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cleveland Guy - You're welcome.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop K T 8 Rainbow. SB Checks, BB Bets, 1 Call and a couple folds, I call. SB Calls (4 Remaining)

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn’t ask about it, and Omaha-8 rather than Omaha-hi is really my game, but I think you might have made a mistake on the second betting round by not playing your hand “fast.”

Three pairs on the flop can be tough to play. When you flop three pairs, the odds against the board pairing on the turn are 39 to 6 or 6.5 to 1. To justify calling a single bet on the second betting round, there has to be the promise of at least 7 small bets in the pot at the showdown if the board does pair on the turn. And even then, you don’t want to encounter an opponent with top set, or who has also flopped three pairs - and unless the board pairs the top flop card on the turn, you don’t even want to encounter an opponent who has flopped the middle set.

With five opponents seeing the flop, you’re going to have those 7 small bets (at least) in the pot at the showdown - but you still have to be concerned about an opponent who has flopped top set or middle set.

Because of these concerns, I think you have to play three flopped pairs fast. In other words, if you’re going to play flopped three pair hands, you bet and raise on the second betting round with them. I don’t think you have odds to raise “for value,” - but you’re betting or raising not so much for value as to probe at your opponents, and to possibly get a free card on the turn. And hopefully (although probably not realistically) your opponents will concede the pot to you on the second betting round. But even if your opponents don’t concede the pot to you or give you a free card, at least you generally won’t be facing a double bet on the third betting round (when the limits double).

In turns of probing at your opponents, you bet or raise on the second betting round with the intention of getting information by the way your opponents respond. They’re probably not going to fold, but whether they call or raise often gives you a clue as to their hand strength. Depends on how the individual opponent plays, of course, but with this particular flop, someone with a flopped set, especially a set of kings, might, for example, play back at you (re-raise). And in any event, by raising on the second betting round you greatly reduce the chance of facing a double bet on the third betting round, and might even get a free card.

Just my opinion.

Buzz