Party 15: KK vs. a maniac and a caller

The Bear · #1 10-03-2004, 11:12 AM

Party 15. Two opponents in this hand. The first is a Party regular who is a selective maniac. By that, I mean every once in a while, he'll choose a random hand, jam it preflop, then play it aggressively through the river unimproved. I have seen him showdown at least 15 times after doing this and I've never seen anything resembling a real hand. I think he chooses total cheese intentionally.

My other opponent seems reasonable, though I have only played about 20 hands with him.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Bear is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Bear raises, 5 folds, CO 3-bets, Button (Maniac) caps, 2 folds, Bear calls, CO calls.

Flop: (13.66 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Bear bets, CO calls, Maniac raises, Bear calls, CO calls.

Turn: (9.83 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Bear checks, CO checks, Maniac bets, Bear raises, CO calls, Maniac calls.

River: (15.83 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Bear checks, CO checks, Maniac bets

What's the plan? Fold, call or raise? Also, what do you think of my play on other streets?

sthief09 · #2 10-03-2004, 11:17 AM

I'd bet the river and fold to a raise. You've represented a huge hand and they'd have to have something big themselves to raise you. He hasn't played the hand like a maniac postflop (he didn't 3-bet the turn), so it's unlikely he'll bluff raise the river.

The Bear · #3 10-03-2004, 11:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet the river and fold to a raise. You've represented a huge hand and they'd have to have something big themselves to raise you. He hasn't played the hand like a maniac postflop (he didn't 3-bet the turn), so it's unlikely he'll bluff raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

sthief,

What hands do you put my opponents on?

Also, maniac is 100% capable of raising me with a worse hand on the river. In fact, he's capable of raising with nothing even when CO calls the river. I cannot safely fold to a raise from him. The fact that maniac didn't 3-bet the turn means that he has a very weak hand.

sthief09 · #4 10-03-2004, 11:52 AM

With no good read on the CO, I'm thinking he is either scared with AK or decided to stay in with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jx or TT. I guess you don't beat either of those. Actually, I can't think of anything you're possibly ahead of here. this is a tougher spot than I realized. on one hand, you have no read on CO, but on the other, if he's sane he's got you killed. you might even be able to fold here. if you think CO can possibly fold the best hand (I don't, considering he cold-called the flop and turn), a c/r might be in order.

But if you're not going to fold, I guess I'd rather check. CO probably has the best hand, he's not betting, and the maniac raising even with the nut low still sucks because you're putting in 2 bets with what will be 2nd best an overwhelming amount of time.

if the river was a blank, I'd probably bet.

EDIT: sorry, I posted this in the wrong place. this was meant to be a response to your response to my first post.

DrGutshot · #5 10-03-2004, 02:05 PM

It's tough to put the CO on a hand...but I think you should C/R this one. You definetly beat the button a fair amount of the time here to make it legit, I think you can make the CO fold AK ~75% of the time. He *might even laydown AQ, but I think the times you knock out his top pair make it worth it. If you are 3bet by the button, I think you should cry like a little girl and call it, but I think he would rarely 3bet this. I think check/calling is pretty bad because will often call and beat you. I think Check/folding is a crime as well.
thoughts?

sthief09 · #6 10-03-2004, 03:03 PM

he cold-called 2 on the flop and he cold-called 2 on the turn. he's going to now fold on the river to an extremely suspicious check-raise?

Nightwish · #7 10-03-2004, 04:11 PM

This is a very tough spot, and the CO very likely has you beat. And another check-raise won't make him fold anything that beats you. But there's enough money in the pot to make a call worth it. If the CO now raises, you can fold.

BTW, the maniac could have a hand too or he could be chasing to the river and betting with any spade.

DrGutshot · #8 10-03-2004, 05:58 PM

the reason I think he would fold to the river C/R is if he had a PP with a decent spade or an ace with a decent spade. The 4th spade didn't fall...and he would call one bet with a decent pair, but would fold to a C/R.
make sense, or am I crazy?
-drgutshot

The Bear · #9 10-03-2004, 08:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
the reason I think he would fold to the river C/R is if he had a PP with a decent spade or an ace with a decent spade. The 4th spade didn't fall...and he would call one bet with a decent pair, but would fold to a C/R.
make sense, or am I crazy?
-drgutshot

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's the problem. The CO's range of hands is very limited given his action, if we assume he has reasonable 3-betting standards preflop. It seems that he must have a hand like AK, AQ, JJ, TT, or maybe AJs and ATs.

But the pot is very large, so can I really fold for one more bet? Probably not, since we're online and it's possible the CO found his way there with some weird hands.

Given that I have to call, it it worth investing one more bet to blow the CO off his hand? I'm getting 20-1 on that proposition. My question is: Is that good enough?

Justin

bicyclekick · #10 10-03-2004, 09:00 PM

This almost never comes up, but I'm gonna check/raise here and hope for the best... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I really think there are enough players that could lay down AK in this spot...as you've reaaaaaaaaaaaaly represented a monster. The hoping for the best is really just hope you have the button beat.