Draw Poker Problem In Supersystem

[Al Mirpuri]

Mike Caro presents a draw poker problem in Supersystem. He states that the only person to answer it without hesitation is Doyle Brunson. Did anyone figure it out on first confronting it? Needless to say, it was beyond my ken.

[skp]

well, what was the problem?

[kidpokerguru]

whats the prob?

[Al Mirpuri]

Draw Poker Logic Problem:
KKQQJ
Your opponent spreads this hand face-up on the table. He is all-in (so there can be no betting after the draw). He has a tendency to split two pair and take three anytime he suspects an opponent might have trips.

JJJQA
This is your hand, and you're first to draw.
How many cards should you draw? Why?

The above is the problem as presented by Wu66 and is a copy of a post he made in a response to this thread in a different forum.

[bygmesterf]

[ QUOTE ]
Draw Poker Logic Problem:
KKQQJ
Your opponent spreads this hand face-up on the table. He is all-in (so there can be no betting after the draw). He has a tendency to split two pair and take three anytime he suspects an opponent might have trips.

JJJQA
This is your hand, and you're first to draw.
How many cards should you draw? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Al, don't you have something even more obscure and less relavent to post?

The answer is to rap pat, and hope your opponent misses his draw at a boat.

Draw 0: Opponent will toss the jack and try for a full house.

Draw 1: Opponent may decide to you have trips, and so draw down to the KK. This gives him 8-1 vs 11-1 odds of sucking out on you

Draw 2: Same as Draw 1.

[Daliman]

I havent read the rest of the posts, but I say drop the Q only.

Reason: If you drop Q only, he will likely drop the jack only, suspecting you of 2 pair, thus having one shot at three outs
If you drop the A & Q, he will drop the QQJ, having 3 shots at 3 outs.
Although, the more I think about it, your best shot is probably STANDING PAT! You stand pat, it's almost impossible for him to put you on trips.

It may be likely that he will draw 3 anyways if you drop just one card, figuring obviously, you already have him beat if you draw one and have called his bet, so this one is obviously wrong.

Stand Pat..GIves a 93% chance to win [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I'm positive this is the right answer.

Now lets see if I'm Wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Good Exercise

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Draw Poker Logic Problem:
KKQQJ
Your opponent spreads this hand face-up on the table. He is all-in (so there can be no betting after the draw). He has a tendency to split two pair and take three anytime he suspects an opponent might have trips.

JJJQA
This is your hand, and you're first to draw.
How many cards should you draw? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Al, don't you have something even more obscure and less relavent to post?

The answer is to rap pat, and hope your opponent misses his draw at a boat.

Draw 0: Opponent will toss the jack and try for a full house.

Draw 1: Opponent may decide to you have trips, and so draw down to the KK. This gives him 8-1 vs 11-1 odds of sucking out on you

Draw 2: Same as Draw 1.

[/ QUOTE ]


While correct, the answer is not complete in its explanation. See my initial post for full explanation, which leaves zero room for "He MAY decide you have trips". The trips thought being his only reason for breaking 2 pair is a bit of a red herring.

[andyfox]

"If you drop Q only, he will likely drop the jack only, suspecting you of 2 pair"

He has turned his hand over. You see he has two pair, kings over queens. You're not going to keep two lesser pair; you're going to draw three if you have two lesser pair, since that gives you the better chance of making trips. He's going to draw three if you draw one.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
"If you drop Q only, he will likely drop the jack only, suspecting you of 2 pair"

He has turned his hand over. You see he has two pair, kings over queens. You're not going to keep two lesser pair; you're going to draw three if you have two lesser pair, since that gives you the better chance of making trips. He's going to draw three if you draw one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I showed my complete lne of thinking here, including my initial incorrect thought. Later in the same post, and also in other addendums to similar posts, i clarified and corrected this statement.

Aren't you a copy editor or something? How did you miss this? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[eh923]

I haven't looked at S/S in a long time, but I do remember this example. I'm not going to give spoilers, other than to say that Doyle's explanation was quite a bit deeper than I would ever think.

Hint:
YOUR cards play a large part in the decision.