My sucky NFL picks

[MicroBob]

A combination of borrowing ideas from a couple guys here, a small-time handicapper friend of mine, and my own fuzzy-logic:

Cincy +3
PIT +1
HTN +7.5
ML on HTN +330
Over on HTN/KC 47
TB +3.5
DET +6


Too many people I respect like TB and DET (these are the 2 picks of the guy i know locally).
When I saw DET at +6 I jumped on it...even though it's been speculated that it could maybe go higher??

PIT is my own pick - I know that a lot of people like MIA on this one. I'm a big believer in Roethlesberger as I mentioned previously.

CIN is my own as well. BAL doesn't impress me and I think Carson is figuring it out pretty quickly. I like Marvin Lewis a lot and Cincy plays very tough at home. I'm also a life-long Bengals fan so there a bit of sentiment involved here too.


Agree with those saying that KC shouldn't be a 7 point fave over anybody right now. Really like the over on this as well.

Earlier this week I almost grabbed the ML on SF at +500. It sank quite a bit since then and I missed my chance.

[natedogg]

I think the Cincy pick is a decent play. For one, Baltimore is absolutely NOT the right play here, so betting the other side of an obviously terrible play is never too bad.

Also, I think Cincy is really the better team here anyway, and I think they will win the division.

natedogg

[MicroBob]

Thanks for the observation on Cincy there.

The local guy I know refuses to bet on any game involving the Packers. He is from Wisconsin and doesn't want his betting to be tainted by the fact that he is a big fan. I very much respect this way of approaching his handicapping. and that's also why i feel a little bit icky about my Cincy and Pittsburgh picks.

On PIT....we'll see in a few hours whether my contention that Roethlesberger is already ready for the NFL is correct.

[MicroBob]

Well....I bit the dust on DET and CIN but got the spread AND ML on HTN (fell short on the over).

My NFL picks continue to be pretty unimpressive but I keep catching lucky breaks (last week had the ML on CHI over GB).

edit - Checking my acct I see that I didn't include my CHI +12 pick that I grabbed late this morning in this thread.
So I guess my picks weren't COMPLETELY terrible.

Have more on TB and PIT tonight though.

[craig r]

Good call on the HOU ML. And don't worry about your picks being "unimpressive." all that matters is the end of the season (and even pros lose a season). just get good numbers.

craig

[NLfool]

what I've noticed with microbob is that he maybe 50% or below but picks enough underdog values that he's still profitable and his baseball underdogs have been on a roll

[MicroBob]

Thanks.
Unfortunately I am pretty certain I couldn't pull the trigger on such bets if I was actually playing for any real amount of money.

Though I am actually slowly increasing the funds in my sports-betting accounts with my limited knowledge and lucky breaks so I'm happy.


I honestly don't know how you guys betting for any significant amount of dough can do it.
I just don't think I could.