30-60 KK

[any2cards]

1st hand in a live 30-60 game, of which I know only 1 player. That player is UTG, and is tight and aggressive.

UTG raises. Serveral folders, and I 3-bet with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] two off of the button. The cutoff 4-bets, the button calls 4-bets cold, the blinds fold, and UTG caps. All call.

Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG bets, I raise, cutoff 3-bets, button calls 3 bets cold, UTG 4-bets, I cap, all call.

Turn is the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG checks.

What is your play for the rest of the hand?

[coffeecrazy1]

Hmm...this one's very tough with all the scare cards, so I understand the dilemma. My instinct tells me that the man to fear is the button, with his quiet cold-calling. The check from the UTG probably means weakness rather than trapping, in my opinion. I would put him on a big hand that he probably is beginning to have doubts about. I wouldn't be quite as worried about the CO, figuring him for two pair or set, in which case you have him beat.

All that said, imo, I would probably still bet out here. The only person you'd be concerned about with a call/raise would probably be the button, unless UTG hit his nut flush and decided to trap all of the sudden.

If the button were to raise, I would still call, with a redraw to the boat for one more bet. I dunno...this is a tough one all the way.

[Hitch]

Well, you definetly bet here. If i'm raised I reraise and call down if someone 4 bets it (unless of course you improve). Even if you are behind you still have a lot of outs, if you have all ten a reraise almost comes close to a value raise if everyone calls - which they probably will.

This is a draw heavy board and its very likely they made a very strong second best hand - make them pay

[Michael Davis]

If you are reraised after betting, there is no sense in threebetting. You will be paying at most one and probably two extra bets to draw because you are surely beaten at this point.

-Michael

[Hitch]

I don't think you're surely beaten at this point. Many players would raise with a pair of aces or a set of tens or jacks, 2 pair, a pair and a straight draw, maybe with just the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. When the pot is huge many players make more aggressive plays with less of a hand.

If your giving your opponents this much credit then you should give them enough credit not to be in this pot with AQ, given the preflop action. In fact the only non-pair hand that would be in would be AK, of which they would have to have exactly A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for you to be behind. I think game theory is useful here

When its capped pf by four opponents in a 30-60 game, there's going to be a lot of action regardless of the flop.

If you are raised on the turn, I think your ahead often enough or improve often enough to make a reraise profitable, especially since everyone is likely coming along

[Barry]

Hmmm.... interesting

With 20 BB in the pot and if you aren't ahead you're only a 3.5:1 to fill up, so long as no one else flopped a set. So on that basis you could argue that you would be value betting the turn.

However, given the betting action, it might be a reasonable assumption that there is another set out. If so, you're down to 7 outs making you a 5:1 dog, if you are not ahead. Maybe I'm seeing too many monsters but given that board and the action, it is also reasonable to assume that you are now drawing.

So I'd check and call all bets on the turn and pray for a black K or 8 on the river.

[cero_z]

Hi any2,

[ QUOTE ]
1st hand in a live 30-60 game

[/ QUOTE ]
I'll say!

Bet the turn. You have 7-10 outs (there could be a smaller set out there) if you're behind, and your opponents have already shown you that they don't need the nuts to go off for a million bets each. If everyone stays in and caps it again, that's fine; if some players drop, that's better (they could fold a small diamond that's the only one out there). Regardless, you must show your hand down, and I don't think you care if it's cheap or expensive.

[DcifrThs]

if that was the 8c i think UTG would be more likely to bet b/c he'd fold to the raise...since he checked i'd say he has the Ad in his hand (or JJ which of course he has no diamonds). right now its more likely he has AdAx than JJ.

the button...i have never seen a player call 4 cold, then 3 cold..thats SEVEN bets cold...who is this guy? can i get his number and invite him to play?

anyway, it doesn't matter at this point. if a flush is out then the flush is out, period. you CANNOT give a lone diamond a free shot here. UTG must be made to call a bet. the flush draws aren't going anywhere so you just want them to pay, and if a lower flush is out and both UTG and you are drawing you have an extra out that he doesn't (actually more since the flush is "out" already which elminates 2 diamonds).

that means you have enough of an overlay to have no qualms about calling a bet, ESPECIALLY since the Td gives him a hand he must call with and you the virtual nuts (barring quad tens, AdQd, and Qd9d).

therefore, while usually you check with outs and bet when you can fold, this time i think is different. you should bet here.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

in your first post you say:

[ QUOTE ]
This is a draw heavy board and its very likely they made a very strong second best hand - make them pay

[/ QUOTE ]

if anybody "made" a hand with that 8, it almost CERTAINLY beats your current top set hand. the only hands that eight made are straights and flushes and the unlikely two pair (which is why i said "almost" above).

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you're surely beaten at this point. Many players would raise with a pair of aces or a set of tens or jacks, 2 pair, a pair and a straight draw, maybe with just the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. When the pot is huge many players make more aggressive plays with less of a hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

first i think we can say the Ad is likely in UTG's hand since he checked here and plans to call. i agree you're not "surely" behind and should bet and that in large pots, things happen that would not normally...but AT THIS POINT in a large pot, those people with showdown quality, non-nut (or close to it) hands are calling here not raising for the most part. the aggressives MAY raise 2 pair here but i doubt it given the action. i espeically doubt lone diamonds are raising, and the same goes for straight draws.

[ QUOTE ]

If your giving your opponents this much credit then you should give them enough credit not to be in this pot with AQ, given the preflop action. In fact the only non-pair hand that would be in would be AK, of which they would have to have exactly A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for you to be behind. I think game theory is useful here

[/ QUOTE ]

math is good, but game theory is virtually useless here. this comes down to logical analysis of the costs and benefits of each play. also, please to note that the Kd is on the board and is thus it is an impossibility for it to be coupled with the Ad in somebody's hand.

[ QUOTE ]

When its capped pf by four opponents in a 30-60 game, there's going to be a lot of action regardless of the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

thank you john madden. (i love it when he says stuff like "i think everybody came here today to see some FOOTBALL!!!"

[ QUOTE ]

If you are raised on the turn, I think your ahead often enough or improve often enough to make a reraise profitable, especially since everyone is likely coming along

[/ QUOTE ]

dead wrong. if you are still raised on the turn its AQ q9 or a flush MOST of the time GIVEN the action. you should NOT reraise. you're drawing eight or nine out of ten times.

-Barron

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
What is your play for the rest of the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems pretty easy.

Bet the turn, call all raises.

Call one bet on the river if you don't fill up.