What would you do? (1000nl)

[berya]

Down to 4. Approximate stacks. UTG ~175K, button ~270K, SB ~650K, BB ~350K.

Blinds 8K-16K, ante 3K.

UTG folds

Button raises to about 50K or 60K (it was late). You read him for a very stong/strong hand. Chip leader in SB calls. You don't believe he has anything big (you never know of course). You think if you raise all-in you will get called a high percentage of the time (mostly by button). Also chip leader from SB will most likely lead at the flop (based on playing with him) which will put you in the middle were you to just call.

Payouts are:
1. 180K
2. 87K
3. 43K
4. 29K

You are in BB and your hand is AQo. What's the play?

[etizzle]

i think the main question is: are you good if you flop top pair with either of your cards?

[TomCollins]

I push. But I am an aggressive mofo when it gets shorthanded.

SB knows Button is probably doing it in position and probably has an average hand. AQo is highly likely to be the best hand, and he may even call with a dominated hand like AJ or AT since the pot is so big. You won't be terribly sad to see a call with a low pair since there is so much money in the pot. But since he still has a decent amount left if he folds, he may even drop these hands.

You are losing 9K a hand, so you don't have all day.

I'm not quite sure why you are giving the button so much credit. 4 Handed, he may very well be excited to see AT or 55, but there are WAY too many hands that AQ is in good shape against compared to monster hands. There are really only 4 hands to worry about.

The pay structure rewards you heavily for winning. Waiting around and hanging on for one place isn't worth near as much as gambling to gain chips. If you win the pot instantly, you gain 100k and have the lead within your sights. You also have a virtual lock on 2nd.

If he calls, and you lose, you still have a decent shot of doubling up and getting 3rd and are not completely out of it. If you win, you get a HUGE stack, move up in the money. You will be in great position to win the tournament.

If you fold here, are you going to wait for aces? You are better off making a deal. Going all in with AQo always feels bad to me, but its shorthanded, you have to take a chance sooner or later.

[berya]

I think if I flop an Ace chances are it will be good but the action will be limited. As in SB will probably lead for something like 60K and that will probably be the end of it.

[Che]

berya-

[ QUOTE ]
I think if I flop an Ace chances are it will be good but the action will be limited. As in SB will probably lead for something like 60K and that will probably be the end of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like calling 1/7th of my stack generally, but I think it is correct here given your read.

If the button raise was to 50K, your implied odds are 188K (assuming a 60K lead by SB) for your 34K call.

If it was 60K, you are getting 208K for your 44K call.

In either case, your odds of flopping top pair or better more than justify calling. You still have 300K when you miss, so you're far from crippled. The safe play is the better play here IMHO.

You will cry, of course, when the flop is A92 and one of the opponents had pocket 2's, but this will not happen often enough to make the play unprofitable (at least that's my intuition - no calculations to back it up).

I think pushing is also a good play if the opponents both understand the gap concept, but calling is probably better.

Later,
Che