An Early hand from the WPT Bad Boys last night

[SossMan]

6 player sat. for a 25k seat to the 2005 WPT championship.
Lineup is as follows in order from seat 1 to 6:

Scrub Bank Teller amatuer who won a contest
Antonio (the magician)
Devilfish
Paul Darden
Gus Hansen
Phil Laak

The following is very early (maybe hand 3 or so) and everyone has their starting stack of t250k.
Blinds are 4k/8k antes 1k

Preflop pot = 18k

Folded to Antonio on the button w/ devilfish and darden in the SB/BB.

Antonio raises to 24k w/ Q6o.
Devilfish reraises to 64k.
Darden folds.

Does anyone think antonio should push here, given this set of circumstances?

[gergery]

You’re gonna have to help me here – why would he want to push with Q6o, as he is screwed if Devil actually has a hand? He also gave Devil lots of respect as he was a bit reluctant to call his all-in later when Antonio had KK.

But I had a similar thought on the next hand where Scrub had AJo and it was bet and raised to him. I thought it would be a great play to go all-in there. The pros all think they can outplay him later and won’t want to gamble, and they think he’s a bad amateur who would be very likely to have cards – they wouldn’t call without AA/KK there. Thoughts?

-Greg

[swimfan]

Yes for the following reasons:

1. Folding Equity + % Chance to win pot

Thinking from a macro perspective, if called and I'm Antonio, I would expect on average to be around a 2:1 dog. If called, it's almost break-even EV (.33*(518000)+.67*(-225000). Add the folding equity in, it becomes good +EV.

In fact, the only way it's really a terrible move in terms of odds and folding equity is if you expect to be worse than a 4:1. The only hands in that realm are AA, KK, and QQ...and how likely is that?

2. Purely subjective, I rate Antonio as the second worst player in that group. Second to Phil Laak. I'd take marginally -EV situations to build a stack.


Edited to correct $$$'s in equation

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
2. Purely subjective, I rate Antonio as the second worst player in that group. Second to Phil Laak. I'd take marginally -EV situations to build a stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

I would rather play against Paul Darden than Antonio I think.

-Jarid

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
6 player sat. for a 25k seat to the 2005 WPT championship.
Lineup is as follows in order from seat 1 to 6:

Scrub Bank Teller amatuer who won a contest
Antonio (the magician)
Devilfish
Paul Darden
Gus Hansen
Phil Laak

The following is very early (maybe hand 3 or so) and everyone has their starting stack of t250k.
Blinds are 4k/8k antes 1k

Preflop pot = 18k

Folded to Antonio on the button w/ devilfish and darden in the SB/BB.

Antonio raises to 24k w/ Q6o.
Devilfish reraises to 64k.
Darden folds.

Does anyone think antonio should push here, given this set of circumstances?

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed the first 35 min or so of this, so I didn't get to see Devilfish at all (just why is he a "bad boy" of poker, he always seems pretty calm and polite at the table. He's an aggressive better, sure, but really, I can think of a lot more pros who fit the "bad boy" image. Maybe they declined... but I digress).

So he's risking 225k for 108k. I don't like that push. I know that Devilfish is an extremely aggressive opponent, and having him on my left is no fun, but this seems a bit much. I guess it depends on what hands you think he will lay down. Q6o isn't very good against a random hand; the only hand it really domintate is an X6 with X < Q. Still, I suppose you would fold an awful lot of hands, and unless Ulliot has an overpair or a bigger queen you are going to have decent chances.

I think overall pushing is bad for the following reasons:
In this particular scenario (winner take all, low first prize) there is less folding equity than normal.
The hand is pretty bad hot and cold.
There is definite value to extending tv time. (Yes, this would tend to push people who thought in marketing terms towards laying down more hands. I strongly suspect Antonio, coming from an entertainment background, is accutely aware of the tv exposure. I'm not as sure Devilfish cares that much about it.)


The whole setup is so unique that it is hard for me to come to a clear conclusion on this.

[gergery]

Seems to me the issue is not so much what EV he has here by calling/pushing here, but can he get a better EV spot next orbit with a hand that’s not a piece of cheese facing a raise.

[Sundevils21]

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather play against Paul Darden than Antonio I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

not me. Its close though. both good players

[swimfan]

Those are all good points, and you're right the setting is a bit different. My thought process is, it's early and getting a decent chip edge early may prove valuable against tough/tricky opponents. If you bust early, no biggee. However, your assertion is good and valid; that tv exposure=$$$ for Antonio, as he's probably aware.

[swimfan]

However the setup's probably fast, considering everyone starts with approximately 30x BB with antes. May want to gamble up a bit and play very aggressive. On the other hand, the downside as another poster suggested is there may not be a whole lot of folding equity for same reason...

Edit: And another positive to pushing is even if you're a 2:1 dog and it gives you a greater than proportion chance of winning the seat by virtue of big stack, would be a benefit.

[SossMan]

I can't believe nobody has mentioned position....sheesh.