Turn raise with JJ

maxpowers21 · #1 09-06-2004, 07:59 PM

Really the turn raise is the question here. I think this is standard play. fold to a 3-bet and check down the river no matter what card comes, depending on what river card came I'm not sure if a fold to a river bet is automatic, although i would tend to fold. Thoughts?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $3.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO (poster) calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, MP1 folds, BB calls.

River: (9.66 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 9.66 BB

maxpowers21 · #2 09-09-2004, 06:06 AM

any takers?

easypete · #3 09-09-2004, 08:17 AM

I would play about the same, but I may have bet the river.

You posted in the CO, so you probably don't have a read on the BB. You raised pf, bet the flop, the Q hit (along w/ the flush). Your opponent may have the Q or flush, but also may have a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and may be semi-bluffing w/ middle pair. He may think his hand is good on the turn with a chance of improving to the nuts.

Since you didn't get a 3-bet on the turn, I think you are better than 50/50 of being good. A bet here may also push off a weak Q, improving your chances of winning.

spamuell · #4 09-09-2004, 08:23 AM

Why did you raise the turn and check the river? Yeah I know an overcard fell but if you're raising the turn, you're putting your opponent on what, a T? Another pair that has just picked up a flush draw? Any single heart or straight draw? If he's the kind to bet the turn with these holdings, this is fine, but then you should raise the river, just because it's a K it doesn't really change much, unless he holds specifically KT, or something like AJ with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

#5 09-09-2004, 09:31 AM

I don't like this fold to a 3-bet line ever at these stakes. I have been 3-bet so many times by draws, low pocket pairs, ace high, 9 high, etc... so many times on the turn that i no longer give the average party player any credit for any kind of hand if they 3-bet. So unless you have a great read on this player, just call him down if you think he's bluffing, it'll cost you the same as raising and folding to a 3-bet, but you get to showdown.

spamuell · #6 09-09-2004, 09:37 AM

I just reread your post and I see you intended to check the river whatever card fell and fold to a turn 3-bet. Why? The disadvantages of this that I can think of right now are:

- You cost yourself the pot sometimes when you don't get to see the river and would have hit a J to win
- If he is outright bluffing on the turn, he might just fold to your raise and you don't get the bet you would have got from him on the river
- He might just bet out again on the river
- Occasionally you will get 3-bet by a worse hand (it really depends on the opponent, often you never will, this is quite a minor point).

I'd like to know what your reasons were for deciding your line because it's one I rarely if ever use and wonder where I can incorporate it.

Rico Suave · #7 09-09-2004, 10:12 AM

Unlike the others, I think I like your line on this hand.

If you are going to continue on the turn, then raising is the play b/c of other player yet to act, which everyone so far seems to have ignored.

As far as folding to a 3 bet....I think it is reasonable with your aggression and that board. I do not think many are going to 3 bet you there with a hand you beat. I am not saying it doesn't happen, but I would say a 3-bet here has you beaten at least 80% of the time.

I think there is an argument with betting the river, but I do not mind the check. A turn semibluff is not paying off, and I just do not see *tons* of hands that you beat, that are going to pay off. I am sure I will be proven wrong.

--Rico

spamuell · #8 09-09-2004, 10:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As far as folding to a 3 bet....I think it is reasonable with your aggression and that board. I do not think many are going to 3 bet you there with a hand you beat. I am not saying it doesn't happen, but I would say a 3-bet here has you beaten at least 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are beaten 80% of the time on the turn, you should call the 3-bet. You're getting effective odds of about 6:1 so you need to be beaten more than about 86% of the time here for it to be wrong to call a 3-bet and a river bet.

Michael Davis · #9 09-09-2004, 10:23 AM

I don't think you should automatically check down the river.

I would also check this river, but it is because I think the K makes a few hands for your opponent but, more importantly, makes it much less likely you will be called by a worse hand.

-Michael

Rico Suave · #10 09-09-2004, 10:25 AM

Spamuel:

[ QUOTE ]
If you are beaten 80% of the time on the turn, you should call the 3-bet. You're getting effective odds of about 6:1 so you need to be beaten more than about 86% of the time here for it to be wrong to call a 3-bet and a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I understand this. If I say 80%, then I should call down. I thought the 80% figure was generous, do you not?

--Rico