Monster river overbet, call or fold?

[SlyAK]

Villain in this hand is UTG with $450. He sees the flop way too often, but doesnt get too out of line post flop in general. However, on at least 2 (maybe it was 3 occasions), he has made massive all-in overbets on the river. I dont know if this means "nuts" or just that he doesnt think anyone will call so can steal the pot.

I am UTG+1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and $236. UTG limps, I limp, CO and button limp, both blinds come along. 6 to flop for $12.

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

It gets checked around. (Not sure what I was thinking here.)

Turn 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] SB bets $4, BB calls, UTG villain min-raises to $8, I raise to $20... (I'm hoping he woke up with a hand and will do the massive push here even though he hasnt done it before on the turn.) All fold back to UTG who calls. Pot= $60.

River 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG moves in!!! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Call or fold here.... I have $214 left...

Sly

[Under Control]

Seems like an easy fold to me.

[Utah]

Easy fold

[Shaun]

You are losing to a boat only, and if he is any good and had a set or two pair on the flop, he'd have likely been betting this hand earlier to build a pot and protect against 1 card draws. Of course he could have 99.

Still, if you are going to slow-play this hand, considering the way things went I'd probably have to call that bet. It is quite possible that because no one bet the flop, he doesn't put you on a flush, but a hand like AK with the A of clubs when you raise him on the turn. I wasn't there, but I'd suspect a lot of players will bet here with smaller flushes.

I would probably have to call and curse myself later for getting in this situation, but this is really dependent on your opponent. Of course if you fold, you only lose about 25 bucks. I'm most likely calling here if I feel the guy has been getting out of line on the river bets, but a lot of this depends on how comfortable you are losing that 200+ if you're wrong.

[SlyAK]

Glad to see someone didnt think this was such an easy decision, because I was very unsure of what to do. I really would have thought that he would have come out firing with a set on the flop, but who knows?

He also could have turned a set and rivered the boat. On the turn he could have a set and figure me for the flush, so he doesnt re-raise, (obviously I gave him pretty good odds to fill). He may figured that if I have the nut-flush I will be unable to fold it on the river.... so he'll just push if he fills and check fold otherwise.

I really wish I had seen how UTG had gotten to $450, (max buy-in was $200). Maybe he had pushed before with the nuts, or nearly so on the river and been called. I had seen him do this twice before, so maybe he is running hot and this is his method of betting really strong hands. He may figure he'll get less calls, but they'll be worth it because he'll stack someone whenever they do call.

He may also just be very certain that I have a flush and doesnt think I have the guts to call. I can find reasonable arguments for calling or folding. Thanks for the input .

Sly

[JohnG]

Given he has made these big overbets prior to this hand, and given you have somewhat revealed your hand to him with the turn action. His river push looks like a bet expecting to be called by your expected flush. His earlier play set up his play of overbetting into strong hand on river when he wants calling. It takes a strange player to make it to the river to then be bluffing an opponent off a suspected flush. What does he get there with, that is now a bluffing hand against a strong looking opponent?

Were his prior big overbets into strong looking opponents? Would he think you could fold a made flush, given he knows you have witnessed his prior overbets? I would guess the answer to both questions would be no.

[SlyAK]

I really thought about calling here, but just before my time ran out I folded. The other 2 times that he pushed in on the river the opponents hadn't showed much strength. I figured that he had to assume I had a flush, (and probably the nut flush). He also probably figured that I couldnt lay it down, (wrong there). If he had bet the pot or even 1 1/2 x the pot I would have called, but I didnt want to play that hand for my stack once the board paired.

I played the hand too slowly the whole way in any case, which probably set up this situation.

Sly

[gomberg]

Sly, I don't like your line on the flop and turn here. I like to build pots with monsters - and would have bet at least 1/2 pot on the flop and hope for a raise. On the turn, you didn't raise close to enough. Any smaller flush will call you as maybe a set or 2pair would (given that you checked the flop). After you call the $8, the pot would be $36, so I would raise at least that much, to at least $44. But with this much action, I'd probably raise it even more. As for the river given the way you played this hand, without a read you probably should fold most of the time.

[SlyAK]

Gomberg,

I played this hand like absolute crap. In one word AWFUL. It took a few posts for someone to tell me that, surprised it wasnt sooner.

Flop: I dont know why I checked it. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Turn: Let me be honest about my weak raise here. I thought that after a weak raise maybe he would do a monster push here (on the turn). I lost sight of everything else. I figured, look weak with a not so big raise, and maybe he'll move in since he's pushed a couple times before, (granted those were on the river). Hmm... didnt' work.

River: Now the big push!! (I didnt want to see this now). After thinking about it I felt a fold was best. I agree with you I totally butchered this one. Oh well.... I tend to not play flopped strong/nut flushes fast enough, but really the only hope is for another flopped flush or a set, so best to get aggressive fast I'm learning. Thanks for the feedback.

Sly

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to not play flopped strong/nut flushes fast enough, but really the only hope is for another flopped flush or a set, so best to get aggressive fast I'm learning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also remember that since you have the nut flush, another club will all but completely kill your action. Betting the flop will also disguise your hand better.

Justin A