JTs hand 30/60

mmcd · #1 08-08-2004, 02:43 AM

The only places I'm a little unsure of this hand are preflop and (much moreso) the river. Preflop, the open raiser and the first coldcaller were both LAG, borderline maniacs. The second coldcaller seemed semi-reasonable, but I didn't have much or a read on him. I figured that with position and one loose passive blind (coupled with the fact that I could outplay these opponents post-flop) made for a cold-call) On the river I was thinking maybe I was up against the nuts, but I did come pretty close to raising given the opponent.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, 1 fold,

Flop: (11 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP1 raises, CO folds, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (17.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 19.50 BB

sam h · #2 08-08-2004, 03:03 AM

Raise the river. If MP1 had a bigger flush, he's not raising that flop and he's not just calling your turn raise. UTG is likely to have just a lone high heart, making it both less likely MP1 has you beat and less attractive for you to go for an overcall from UTG on the river.

Garland · #3 08-08-2004, 08:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
On the river I was thinking maybe I was up against the nuts, but I did come pretty close to raising given the opponent.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's ridiculous thinking. If you were going against the nuts, he'd raise the turn again and get as much action as humanly possible. Raise the river.

Garland

mmcd · #4 08-08-2004, 08:38 AM

I might have overthought this river here, but it seemed apparent to me that that the first ep player had a high heart, now if the second ep player had flopped the nut flush, I don't know if he would have 3 bet the turn, especially since we were both likely drawing dead. If I were in his position on the turn there with the nuts, I probably would have checkraised the turn, and then smooth-called the 3-bet intending on either checkraising or lead-3 betting the river depending on my opponent. (just a note, the first ep player was real laggy and would not have slowed down and just called with a set) I don't necessarily think his non 3-bet on the turn means he doesn't have the nuts. The bet by him on the river just seemed real out of place given the action on the hand, and I was afraid I would be walking into a lead-3 bet which I would obviously have to pay off. So I (maybe) gain an extra bet when I'm ahead and lose an extra 2 when I'm behind. Maybe one of you math guys can double check this: Assuming he can have the nut flush here given his play, and also assuming that he'd bet out some hands that he wouldn't pay off a raise with (more than just outright bluffs) then there'd need to be a 66% chance that he doesn't have the nut flush, AND has hand that he will call the raise with?

Like I said, I probably just overthought the whole thing, but you have to admit, that river bet looks REALLY out of place given the action.

steveyz · #5 08-08-2004, 08:51 AM

Raise, and giving your read on him, cap if he 3-bet. This could be something like AJ, with the ace of hearts. If he had you beat, he would have 3-bet the turn.

steveyz · #6 08-08-2004, 09:05 AM

That's not really good thinking on your part. First, while EP1's action might be consistent with a high heart, that means that it is LESS likely that MP1 flopped the nut flush. Secondly, a nut flush should be not slowing down on this turn because the way you played it, you might have been drawing extremely live as 77/33/22 are all consistent from your line of play. There is no reason why MP1 would not 3-bet the turn if he had you beat. If UTG cold called 2 bets already, why wouldn't he call another bet or two? It certainly looks like UTG is the one that has the Ace of hearts. I'm not saying that there is 0 chance of MP1 having the nut flush (anything is possible on Party), but I'd say it's less than 5% of the time.
The bet on the river looks like two pair or a set that didn't want to 3-bet the turn because he was afraid the flush would cap it. By just calling the turn and betting the river, he loses just 1 more BB to a made flush, not 2 more had he 3-bet the turn.
I don't want to offend you, but given your line of thinking, I'm not sure you are ready for the 30/60 game.

mmcd · #7 08-08-2004, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to offend you, but given your line of thinking, I'm not sure you are ready for the 30/60 game.

[/ QUOTE ]
steveyz,
My line of thinking on this hand was opponent-specific. I've played thousands of hands with this opponent, and know it is possible he would play the nut flush this way. The first player in this hand was VERY bad, and it would not surprise me in the least if he held the naked K or possibly even Q of hearts, in fact I think it is more likely that he had one of those as he probably would jammed the nut flush draw all the way to the river . What got me to flat-call the river was basically the fact that this opponent apparently value bet (or possibly bluffed) on what was essentially a blank on the river. I mean wtf would he value bet on the river that he wouldn't 3-bet on the turn?
Given the play of the hand, it seemed reasonable for him to expect I would raise, so I thought there was at least a decent chance that he was planning on 3-betting.

Although the situation is a little different, I think a live hand I played about a month ago is relevent to my possible nut-flush read here:

I limp after an middle limper w J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Cutoff (loose generally bad player) limps, button limps, both blinds are in:

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

checked to me, I bet cutoff calls, button calls, blinds and middle limper fold.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I checkraise the cutoff (button folded in between) and he 3-bets me

I muck like a bat out of hell (he's not 3 betting a str8, set, 2 pair, or 9 high flush after getting checkraised) and he shows me his K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

The point being that he misplayed his hand badly there, he left at least 3 big bets on the table (assuming a non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] river) by not flat-calling my turn raise.

Had he just called and planned on raising the river, I almost certainly would have 3-bet, and might have even payed off the cap.

Obviously I wouldn't I wouldn't lay down my J-high flush to a turn 3-bet in an online 30 game and might have even capped, but he might have put me on a weaker hand and been afraid of raising me and/or the other player out on the turn.

(BTW I'm one of the bigger winners in that Party 30 game and play a bit higher than that when I play live)

Kaz The Original · #8 08-08-2004, 12:55 PM

He has A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Jack

steveyz · #9 08-08-2004, 01:42 PM

Ok, if you knew your opponent plays this way with the nut flush, then that's fine. However, I see no reason why he would not 3-bet the turn with the nut flush. He wouldn't be facing anyone with more than 1-bet, and after the flop action, he has every reason to believe that at least you, if not UTG+1, might be drawing very live, even if he had the nut flush. In your original post, you said that MP1 was a LAG, and I don't know of any LAG that would play a nut flush this way. Also, notice that your opponent raised the flop and faced the field with 2 bets cold. Why would he do this with the nut flush and risk driving out everyone behind him who are drawing dead or extremely thin. It just doesn't add up. Obviously if you've played thousands of hands against this guy, you know him better than I do, but it just seems strange that you'd put him on the nut flush just because of the river bet.

mmcd · #10 08-08-2004, 01:50 PM

n/m