#1
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Counting outs, consideration for other people\'s probable hole cards
This is something that I've wondered about off and on, but haven't ever read about (maybe I just haven't been reading the right books). The question is: should considerations of what your opponent(s) are likely holding affect the way you count your outs?
Here's a specific hand. 4/8 at Viejas casino. (Won't go into all the betting on the hand.) Villain is UTG Hero is UTG+2 CO and Button are also in hand. Hero has AJo Flop is AJ6r Turn is Q (completing the rainbow) The action on 4th street leaves me completely convinced that Villain has KT for a broadway straight. That leaves me with 4 outs to a boat. The pot is large enough to justify calling Villain with 4 outs, but not with 2 outs. The other two players will play any ace and any J-8 or better jack, and would still be calling with those hands. My question is: how many outs do I really have? Do I have to figure the other players are blocking my chances at the boat? Or, is this just second-guessing myself? Another way to think about this: considering that only the SB saw the flop with the 4 of us, and he folded to my flop bet, it is very UNLIKELY that he (or the remaining 5 players at the table) held anything that would block my boat (maybe one of the jacks was folded by someone PF). So do the 11 or 12 mucked cards increase my chances at the boat? Does that counterbalance the damage done by the probable Aces and or Jacks still held by the other two players? Thanks. |
#2
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Re: Counting outs, consideration for other people\'s probable hole cards
Yes, there is something on it in The Theory of Poker, which,being on this site I will assume you have the book.
You can find it there. Which would be much better than me trying to explain it. I would just get it wrong, and confuse you. |
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