How do I calculate casino bonus whoring EV?

[rwesty]

I've deposited $200 and received $291 bonus at Captain Cooks. I need to wager 291*35 = 10185 in order to transfer to my account. Then I need to wager 200*35 = 7000 in order to cash out. (Correct me if I'm wrong) I plan on doing this by autoplaying Vegas Strip Blacjack with $1 bets. What is my expected EV? Should I autoplay the amount of hands equal to my WR*.9? .93? .95?

[Douper]

I'm doing .95


EV = 291 - ((10185 + 7000) * .0036)

[moondogg]

[ QUOTE ]
I've deposited $200 and received $291 bonus at Captain Cooks. I need to wager 291*35 = 10185 in order to transfer to my account. Then I need to wager 200*35 = 7000 in order to cash out. (Correct me if I'm wrong) I plan on doing this by autoplaying Vegas Strip Blacjack with $1 bets. What is my expected EV? Should I autoplay the amount of hands equal to my WR*.9? .93? .95?

[/ QUOTE ]

The bet size is irrelevant to the EV, it only affects the variance (except if you bet much larger and significantly increase your chance of busting out a given casino, which actually increases your long-term EV; however, this increase from $1 to $2 bets is negligible, so you might as well decrease your variance since it's autoplay; if this was manual play you'd definitely increase your bet size to clear it faster, increasing your hourly rate at the expense of variance).

If you setup autoplay for Vegas Strip using the optimal strategy (described here, although I've heard they've changed the defaults to be optimal), the house edge is .3606%.

If you multiple the house edge against the wagering requirement, it will give you your expected loss. So, in this case if you wager 10185, your expected loss is (10185+7000)*.0036067, or about 61.97, so your EV is 291-36.73 = 229.03.

To account for splits and double-downs, you wager about $1.1 on each $1 hand on average. As such, you should setup autoplay for at least .91*WR, or 9269 hands. I'd recommend doing at least 9300 hands, the EV difference is about 11 cents and you don't want to have to wait days to find out that you undershot the WR (remember, the 1.1 is subject to variance too).

[fluff]

[ QUOTE ]
I've deposited $200 and received $291 bonus at Captain Cooks. I need to wager 291*35 = 10185 in order to transfer to my account. Then I need to wager 200*35 = 7000 in order to cash out. (Correct me if I'm wrong) I plan on doing this by autoplaying Vegas Strip Blacjack with $1 bets. What is my expected EV? Should I autoplay the amount of hands equal to my WR*.9? .93? .95?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not quite correct. You need to wager your bonus account 35x, then whatever you transfer to your real account + deposits, must be wagered 35x.

For example, if you transfer 100 out of your bonus account, then you need to do (200+100) x 35, or $10500.

Best thing to calculate how much WR you've met is to sign up for their loyalty club. You gain points at 1 pt. per $10, so you can accurately track your wagering that way. Also if you do wager over $10,000 you can get 10 credits back.