99 facing utg raise

[schwza]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter

CO (t2915)
Button (t3630)
SB (t1735)
BB (t1290)
UTG (t3710)
UTG+1 (t525)
MP1 (t2212)
MP2 (t3260)
Hero (t1070)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, hero?

villain has been pretty tight, but not ridiculous. his vpip/pfr is something like 12/6 in 45 hands. i don't remember if the bet size is unusual.

[skoal2k4]

based on your chip stack, you either have to push or fold. Villian is somewhat tight, so I think at best, you're in a race. (as he's raising UTG). If villian was a person that got involved in a few more hands and was a bit more aggressive, I think I'd push. But it seems to me, based on his numbers, he's got a good hand, so a fold would be in order right?

[woodguy]

Not enough chips to get involved here.

I don't like calling off my last 10BB's w/ 99, you are about a 2-1 dog to the basic EP opening range (AA-TT,AK,AQ)

You have time to get your chips in better, and probably as the aggressor.

If I had 30BB's I'd probably get involved, but not here.

Regards,
Woodguy

[nightlyraver]

I'm folding here since the stacks are too shallow. It's possible that Villian has two big cards, but he could also have many pairs bigger than yours. I'm calling with the 9's in only three cases: I may be very short stacked and I need to take a stand with the 9's; I may peg Villian as a light raiser and I'll stick in a reraise to isolate and put him to a decision; I may hope that he has a hand like AA or KK and I'm playing for set value.

Case three is the most often case, but it doesn't hold water here. What I'm hoping to do is flop a 9 and take his whole stack when he has a good 1 or 2 pair hand. However, Hero only has a stack of 1070. The odds against flopping a set are 7.5:1 and occasionally we don't get paid off at all. Both Hero and Villian need stacks GREATER THAN 10x the bet amount for the call to be profitable. This is not true here. Fold.

As an aside, an argument could definately be made that you are very short stacked and need to make a stand. However, you are not in danger of being blinded off imminently. You should wait until you can stick in the first raise yourself.

[play2win]

I have to agree with Nightly here, it is always a plus to be putting in the first raise. If you are going to do it, you cannot flat call here. You must move all-in or fold, the advantage to moving all-in is two fold.

1. You might win if he folds preflop, putting him to the decison for a significant amount of chips is always a plus.

2. You might win if your pair holds up/ hit a set. If you flat call and an over card comes out and he bets big you will feel a big urge to fold (as you should). You will get to see all the cards giving you a better chance to catch-up if you are behind. Where as if you called you might fold if the flop looked unfavorable (it usually does too).

I don't think either pushing in or folding is a problem. So either way you are probably making the right move given your chip situation. If you had more chips risking elimination to a close % race is never worth it. A 4x BB raise is pretty standard, being that he is UTG it shows strength. You will most likely be heads-up which is good for you. I would put him on an AQs or something close to that. If there was one caller already I would not suggest this at all. An overpair is the only thing you don't want to see. [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

How did it work out?

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
Not enough chips to get involved here.

I don't like calling off my last 10BB's w/ 99, you are about a 2-1 dog to the basic EP opening range (AA-TT,AK,AQ)

You have time to get your chips in better, and probably as the aggressor.

If I had 30BB's I'd probably get involved, but not here.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I find that when I have 10BBs, those number of 'better spots' don't occur with sufficient frequency that we can count on them. In a few hands you're going to have just over 8 BBs (after you go through the blinds.

And I think EP's opening range is much broader, including hands like QK, AJ, and many marginal pairs.

I'm on the fence on this one, but I'm not sure that given his stack that this isn't a good place to gamble.

-Scott

[billyjex]

I don't think 99 is performing very well against a typical player's UTG opening range. You're basically pushing your money in HOPING for a coin flip.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I find that when I have 10BBs, those number of 'better spots' don't occur with sufficient frequency that we can count on them

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand where you are coming from and I agree that the magical *better spot* doesn't show up like AA on the button with action in front of you.

More often the better spot comes in the form of if being folded to you in the CO-1 w/ KJo or being able to open raise in MP w/ 44, or open pushng from the CO w/ anytwo.

I was reviewing my HH's in my last 4 FT's (two wins [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]) and in every tourney I was down to 6BB's at some point.

With 10BB's and no antes, you still have 30 hands/situations to get through before the red light really starts flashing.

Not panicing when I get to 10BB's and shoving my chips in a marginal spot has helped me go deep.

Converserly I recently bubbled after 7hrs of play at a live tourney after panicing and shoving my chips in a very marginal spot w/ 6BB's in my stack.

This is a lesson I've been trying drill into myself.

Regards,
Woodguy

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
And I think EP's opening range is much broader, including hands like QK, AJ, and many marginal pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain has raised 3 times in 45 hands. do you really think he's raising KQ utg?


i folded - just wanted to see what others thought.

[BulldogMafia]

I am still learning but I would do it as follows: To me this is read dependent. Against a Tight player fold since you don’t have a big enough stack to make him fold and at best you’re in a race. Against a lose player I would push. When doing a push with this hand and with an M of 7 I would prefer to be ‘first in’ and put them to the question instead of answering one.