AQs and some serious action.

HolyBejeesus · #1 07-27-2005, 06:05 AM

UTG: 46/27/1.2
MP2: 40/2.5/1.1
CO: 16/4.6/1.8
BB: 12/5/1.9

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, BB calls.

 I didn't give to much thought to UTG's LRR since he is an idiot. 

Flop: (20.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

 Huge pot, excellent flop. CO's cold cap is worrysome though, he likely has KK or JJ which reduces my equity significantly. 

Turn: (18.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

 Terrible card. I'm not folding for one bet though. C'mon T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]!

River: (22.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero ... 

 ...now what? 

Thoughts?

JoshuaD · #2 07-27-2005, 06:06 AM

Check raise. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Seriously.

oreogod · #3 07-27-2005, 06:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check raise. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick C · #4 07-27-2005, 06:10 AM

I would check, planning to call.

JoshuaD · #5 07-27-2005, 06:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I would check, planning to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can trap 3 other players into paying 2 bets each on the river. You're best here way more than a quarter of the time, even enough to cover the times you're 3-bet. (Some of the 3-bets you even win).

Nick C · #6 07-27-2005, 06:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would check, planning to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can trap 3 other players into paying 2 bets each on the river. You're best here way more than a quarter of the time, even enough to cover the times you're 3-bet. (Some of the 3-bets you even win).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, okay. If both other players actually called, then maybe I would checkraise. I think one or both of them will fold their missed gutshot sometimes, though.

HolyBejeesus · #7 07-27-2005, 06:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would check, planning to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can trap 3 other players into paying 2 bets each on the river. You're best here way more than a quarter of the time, even enough to cover the times you're 3-bet. (Some of the 3-bets you even win).

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point.

One concern is that if he has trips or a straight (less likely), he might check behind on such a scary board, whereas he definitely bets with a hand that beats me.

Nick C · #8 07-27-2005, 06:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
One concern is that if he has trips or a straight (less likely), he might check behind on such a scary board, whereas he definitely bets with a hand that beats me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that this is a potential problem.

HolyBejeesus · #9 07-27-2005, 06:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One concern is that if he has trips or a straight (less likely), he might check behind on such a scary board, whereas he definitely bets with a hand that beats me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that this is a potential problem.

[/ QUOTE ]

To elaborate, having this check through is pretty devastating because I miss out on 3BB, assuming they all would call. However, If I lead and I could have CR'ed, I miss out on a potential 3BB difference.

If we factor in that CO will bet more frequently with hands that beat me than those that don't, it may turn out that leading is better. Perhaps I can do some kind of an EV calculation.

DavidC · #10 07-27-2005, 09:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG: 46/27/1.2
MP2: 40/2.5/1.1
CO: 16/4.6/1.8
BB: 12/5/1.9

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG caps, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, BB calls.

 I didn't give to much thought to UTG's LRR since he is an idiot. 

Flop: (20.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, BB folds, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

 Huge pot, excellent flop. CO's cold cap is worrysome though, he likely has KK or JJ which reduces my equity significantly. 

Turn: (18.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, CO bets, UTG calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

 Terrible card. I'm not folding for one bet though. C'mon T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]!

River: (22.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, MP2 checks, Hero ... 

 ...now what? 

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check the W$SD on the CO. If this number is insanely high on a reasonable sample size, then buddy's pretty conservative and won't be betting here. Therefore you should bet. If it's reasonable (I'm not sure what this stat looks like for one of us... just can't remember, sorry), then check-raise and call a three-bet.