folded the river. Should I have folded before this?

[Guruman]

Absolute 2/4 6max

villains are generally laggy pf (mostly 30/15 style) and fairly predictable postflop. reads are only semi important as I'm positive I'm drawing here.

I've got T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG - Folds
<font color="blue">Hero</font> - Raises $4 to $4
CO - Calls $4
<font color="blue">[coldcaller!! He's done this a few times before. I hadnt noticed his cc range in the hand, but looking back, he only showed down JTo after a cc previously]</font>
Button - Folds
SB - Raises $5 to $6
BB (MilesDyson) - Folds
<font color="blue">Hero</font> - Calls $2
<font color="blue">[I considered capping here, but I was slowed a bit by the fact that sb's raise came in a spot where deception wouldn't be a factor. I decided to wait for a safe flop to get nutty. Mistake?]</font>
CO - Calls $2
*** FLOP *** [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
SB - Bets $2
<font color="blue">Hero</font> - Calls $2
<font color="blue">[I hated this flop, but I picked up a gutshot [4], a backdoor flush[1.5], and I had my two ten outs that may be good as well[2]. Getting 10-1 this seemed like an easy peel, though I knew I could be drawing to a split or the second best hand, and faced multiple redraws]</font>
CO - Raises $4 to $4 <font color="blue">[I hated this]</font>
SB - Calls $2
<font color="blue">Hero</font> - Calls $2
*** TURN *** [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] [8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
SB - Bets $4
<font color="blue">Hero</font> - Calls $4 <font color="blue">[I'm getting 8-1 here. Is this enough?]</font>
CO - Calls $4
*** RIVER *** [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] [9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
SB - Bets $4
<font color="blue">Hero</font> - Folds
CO - calls


ok? terrible? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[milesdyson]

i think you played it fine

[Guruman]

you knew I'd post it huh? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[milesdyson]

i don't think i remember watching that hand.

sorry about check raising you and sucking out btw.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
gutshot [4], a backdoor flush[1.5], and I had my two ten outs that may be good as well[2]

[/ QUOTE ]


you know this already...but all of your outs are tainted.

Furthermore, if you hit ANY of your outs and they actually are good then the action you receive is likely to be very limited to almost nil much of the time.

Yes...a black J gives you the nuts....but even if your opponent has a worse hand that he's not folding (2-pair or a set perhaps) he's only going to be calling you down. Your nuts will not get any action (unless it's being split with someone).
And you could hit on the turn and THEN get drawn-out on (by a flush or full-house)....afterall, your opponents have likely hit this flop fairly decently.


I probably fold on the flop here even with this size of a pot. I'm willing to listen to how incredibly wrong that might be...but I just think these outs-calculations are pretty optimistic.

[Guruman]

7 may have been too much, but I only needed four. Also, if I connected with the J, I may have gotten a bet out of both villains on two streets if they both had something like a set or two pair.

redraws really mess this hand up for me though, as hitting the J likely just splits the pot, and hitting the T completes a broadway for someone else. I was really hoping for the 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] more than anything. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]