(Live) 3/6 - ATs in CO

(Live 3/6) -- Gerneral table makeup is pretty loose passive. A typical live low limit table. My table image so far is very agressive. UTG is a pretty loose player preflop but generally he has played well postflop.


Here is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, folded to me I call, Button calls, both blinds call.
Pot - 6bb

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.
Pot - 11bb

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls.
Pot - 14bb

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB folds, UTG calls.
Pot - 22.5bb

Am I correct to raise the flop and bet the turn here?

[krimson]

The pre-flop call is a bit loose, arguably. I would probably check the turn and hope for a free card, you're not taking down the pot with 1 bet here and you no longer have an equity edge for this bet to be for value.

[Borodog]

You need to guarantee 3 callers on the turn for the turn bet to be for value. I just take my free card. Nice catch. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

PS. Fold pre-flop. You could call with more cold-callers before you.

You have 12 outs to the nuts, plus another 3 (possibly) for your A. You have a huge overlay, and I think you can easily bet this. Take away the gutshot and I would argue that a check is best.

About getting 3 callers: I'm not sure how you arrived at that number (please explain?) but assuming that is correct, if you bet the turn and get less than 3 callers, you can easily make up the missed bets by collecting on the river when you hit (it is less likely that you will be put on a flush draw when you hit).

good hand.

Betting the flop is great here because you have many outs and can get yourself a free card on the turn. It looks like you are trying to punish drawers, so if anyone else catches a flush (or straight) they are more likely to play back at you.

You can either check the turn and probably get a free card, or, the pot odds* are great enough that you can bet here for value. Mixing up the two options is best, but I prefer the checking to get a free card (BB looks passive here).

*Very sloppy of me. To value bet, one must have equity on that round + future rounds as a result, otherwise the pot equity will dilute. I still think we have a value bet here anyway because the other players will call often enough.

I prefer checking the turn here too, but I think we can bet for value (therefore mix up the two). Pretending I didn't see the results, I would expect SB, who bet the flop, UTG, who raised PF, Button, who called two cold on the flop to all call hero's value bet most of the time; BB might call too. This is a Loose Passive table. (yes, I know the actual results don't fit my prediction, but that's what I think)


Preflop: UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, folded to me I call, Button calls, both blinds call.

Flop: J Q 8
SB bets, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: 6
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, Button ...

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 12 outs to the nuts, plus another 3 (possibly) for your A. You have a huge overlay, and I think you can easily bet this. Take away the gutshot and I would argue that a check is best.

About getting 3 callers: I'm not sure how you arrived at that number (please explain?) but assuming that is correct, if you bet the turn and get less than 3 callers, you can easily make up the missed bets by collecting on the river when you hit (it is less likely that you will be put on a flush draw when you hit).

[/ QUOTE ]

Your Ace outs are not clean. I would hesitate to assign you 1 out for them because of the RIO if you hit an ace and decide you have to pay off a hand like AJ or KT.

Given 12 squeaky clean outs to the nuts and 46 unknown cards in the deck, the odds are 34:12 against you making your hand, or about 2.8:1 against. Therefore you must guarantee either 3 callers on the turn or 2 callers on the turn + 1 caller on the river (a case I neglected before) for this bet to be for value. I think that these are doubtful enough, although not unlikely, that I would simply prefer to take my free card, since I must improve to win.

Plus, getting checkraised on the turn by a big hand who doesn't understand that he should have rammed the flop would be less than fun (although not terrible from a value standpoint).

[The Goober]

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore you must guarantee either 3 callers on the turn or 2 callers on the turn + 1 caller on the river (a case I neglected before) for this bet to be for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

A potential caller on the river only figures into the equation if you get the call because you bet the turn. If you are going to get the same number callers on the river regardless of your turn bet, then you still need 3 or more callers on the turn for this bet to be for value.

But I suppose you already knew that... I guess you are saying that if you take the free card a lot of players will put you on the flush draw and so won't pay you off if you hit, but if you keep betting all the way they may put you on a weaker hand and call. I think a synapse or two just connected in my brain...

[Borodog]

Actually, if they've been calling since the flop raise, they likely have a mediocre hand and may see the river bet in this light: "Well, he either had a bigger pair, had me out-kicked, or had a flush draw, all of which now beat me."

I just want to take my free card.

[The Goober]

Yeah, I'm actually with you on this hand - I'd be checking the turn too. It's just an interesting idea that sometimes you can bet for value a little bit lighter if it disguises your hand well enough to garner extra calls when you do make it. This concept only really comes into play when you're playing against thinking opponents have enough to call your turn bet but are disciplined enough to fold when your draw hits.