UB low buy-in: UTG+1 JJ re-raised...

UB low buy-in MTT
The table has been tight to very tight for almost 1 hour. My stack is above average.
Villain joined the table 10 hands ago and folded the first 6. In the seventh he was BB and called a minbet from UTG+1 (only caller). UTG+1 led out with a pot-sized bet, Villain min-re-raised and folded to the all-in. 2 folds from villain afterwards. No other information/reads.
Then this hand came:

Blinds are 200/400 with 50 Ante (pot 950)

random is at seat 1 with 12675.
random is at seat 2 with 8085.
random is at seat 4 with 19675.
random is at seat 6 with 2945.
HERO is at seat 7 with 10285.
VILLAIN is at seat 8 with 8110.
random is at seat 9 with 10565.
The button is at seat 0.

HERO: Jc Js

Pre-flop:

1 fold, HERO raises to 1800, <font color="red">VILLAIN re-raises to 4000</font>, 4 folds, HERO???

What do you recommend? I was really surprised (first preflop re-raise for almost 2 1/2 hours) and did not know what to do...

[SumZero]

Tough spot. I generally raise a little less preflop as my SOP at UB for MTT is to open betting for the pot pre-antes and 4BB once the antes start. It is only a 200 chip difference, but it might make the fold slightly better.

The raise to 4000 is weird as it is half his stack so he should be pot committed. I could see arguments for fold, stop-and-go, and push all in. I'd probably be inclinded to recommend them in that order.

What would be a decent range for his hands? I'd say the loosest it can reasonably be is something like 99+, AK, AQ, AJs (you are a ~50.6% favorite against this range). And more likely it is something like TT+, AK, AQs (you are ~44% against this range), or even QQ+,AK (you are ~36.2% against this range). If you assume that you push all-in and he calls you would be risking 6260 to win 10810 additional chips so you need to be a 36.7% favorite to make the push all-in a cEV play. Hmm, maybe a fold is too weak tight after all.

[Exitonly]

A) your preflop raise was huge, and really conflicts with your table's image. You said everyone was really tight, so a smaller bet would do the same thing. here i raise PF to 1000.

B) Well you said your table's been really tight, but villain has only been here 10 minutes, and already had an action filled hand. So we'll guess that he's not tight, we'll say average. i'd give him range of: TT+,AJs+,AQo+.. vs which you're a 48% dog. I'm considering his raise here as allin, because theres no way i'm going forward in this hand by just calling. So you're getting 1.7:1 odds on his "all-in" so i think it's a call.

- Ray

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
B) Well you said your table's been really tight, but villain has only been here 10 minutes, and already had an action filled hand. So we'll guess that he's not tight, we'll say average. i'd give him range of: TT+,AJs+,AQo+.. vs which you're a 48% dog. I'm considering his raise here as allin, because theres no way i'm going forward in this hand by just calling. So you're getting 1.7:1 odds on his "all-in" so i think it's a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok but should it be a call pre-flop or an all-in preflop?

If it is not an all-in preflop do you check/fold an A-high flop since given the range you describe above a hand involving an A and 2 babies on the flop leaves us an 17-19% chance of winning the pot (depending on suits and the exact babies). And if you merely call then there will be 8950 in the pot and he'll raise all-in for 4110 more chips and you don't have the odds to draw out. If a flop comes with a KQx you are 19-26% chance and again you don't have drawing odds. A single K with no A or Q, single Q with no K or A, or no overcards gives you the odds to call (although with the worst of it when there was an overcard).

And if you don't go all in should you push any non-A, non-KQ flop? Or should you push every flop, even the Axy flop hoping that you'll fold the QQ and KK hands?

It comes down to a common question of do you want to push all-in preflop which will give the overcard hands the full 5-cards to come, or do you wait for preflop to push hoping that overcards will fold (if the flop comes 3 babies we are an ~55% favorite over his range, but a ~75% favorite against the non-pair cards in his range which doesn't give him correct odds to call) but giving ourselves the sort of reverse implied odds on the flop where we'll win his 4000 chips when he doesn't hit the flop but lose 8110 when he does.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
because theres no way i'm going forward in this hand by just calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that sums that up.

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
because theres no way i'm going forward in this hand by just calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that sums that up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but:

[ QUOTE ]
In cases where you are only slightly over 50 percent on the first round, the advantage to waiting is sometimes much greater than in this example. For instance, let's say you have a hand that will be about 77 percent (on the next round) 70 percent of the time and about 10 percent the other 30 percent of the time. So you are about 55 percent to start. I hope you see, even without doing the math, that not waiting would be insane. Meanwhile, does that problem remind you of anything?

[/ QUOTE ]

from Sklansky's magazine article might give pause over if this is correct play.

Sklansky analyzes nearly this exact play and determines that call/push is a superior strategy to push. The further question I was asking is if call/often push with sometimes call/then check/fold was a better strategy to call/push.