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#1
06-23-2005, 10:34 AM
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Hand from Bellagio $600/no max 10/20 blinds - thoughts?
I regularly post elsewhere on the site, but ran across an interesting NL cash hand and wanted some thoughts...
Playing at the first must move table, $10/20 blinds, smallest stack has about 2K, biggest stack has 40K. I have 8K in front of me when this hand comes up. I am fairly new to the table but have played here before and have reads on some of the players. Tight-ish UTG opens for $100 (standard raise). EP calls. Guy to my right calls (he is fairly tight and is a solid player). I call with 69o. Flame all you want - not the point of this post. The flop comes 4 5 8. I have a gutshot, which, if I hit, will be very well disguised. UTG checks. EP checks. Solid player bets 200, or about half the pot. I call. Other two players fold. The turn is a 7. Board is now 4 5 7 8, no flush possibilities. Solid player checks. I check. River is an Ace. Solid player checks. How much do you bet and why? Pot is $800. I have $8K behind me. Solid player has about $40K. All thoughts welcome and appreciated. I have an idea as to a "right" answer, but definitely would like to hear comments. Thanks in advance. 
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#2
06-23-2005, 10:46 AM
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Re: Hand from Bellagio $600/no max 10/20 blinds - thoughts?
The problem with this type of hand is that he's not going to be calling much because there isn't much to win given the stakes/stack sizes. What if you overbet the pot? Most times you just take it down, but what about the times your opponent thinks you're full of [censored] and decides to test you, now that there is maybe $2k in the pot, or he has the 6 and wanted to let you bluff at it and will now raise into you? Does the amount of times that happens make more than a $400 value bet that may/may not get called by a weaker hand?
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#3
06-23-2005, 10:48 AM
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Re: Hand from Bellagio $600/no max 10/20 blinds - thoughts?
If you make no more money, you paid $200 to win $600, so you paid 3 to 1 on a 10 to 1 shot (even if you assume he'd check behind on the turn when you missed, it would still be paying 3 to 1 on about a 6 to 1).
I'd think you'd need to get $1400 more from this guy to justify the flop call as being correct (or $600 more if you are CERTAIN he checks behind on the turn). I'd pot it. I don't see you getting raised no matter what you bet... A call of a pot bet would at least allow you to convince yourself you played this right. Though I'm anxious to hear other replies.
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#5
06-23-2005, 11:15 AM
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Re: Hand from Bellagio $600/no max 10/20 blinds - thoughts?
[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn. The way it went down, I bet $1200 or push (infrequently) on the river, depending on this and that. [/ QUOTE ] What would make you push in this situation / what would make you bet $1200?
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#6
06-23-2005, 11:16 AM
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Re: Hand from Bellagio $600/no max 10/20 blinds - thoughts?
I dont understand why you think your gutshot will be well disguised, when if you hit it - there will be 4 to a straight on the board. Why do you think that will be well disguised ?
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#7
06-23-2005, 11:18 AM
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Re: Hand from Bellagio $600/no max 10/20 blinds - thoughts?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Bet the turn. The way it went down, I bet $1200 or push (infrequently) on the river, depending on this and that. [/ QUOTE ] What would make you push in this situation / what would make you bet $1200? [/ QUOTE ] I push when the dynamic between us is such that he is going to give serious consideration to calling w/ AQ and will call 100% with a six. Obviously, how much of a vibe I get that he is trapping plays largely in this decision.
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#9
06-23-2005, 11:31 AM
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Re: Hand from Bellagio $600/no max 10/20 blinds - thoughts?
why would you check a hand that seems "well disguised" on the turn?
--turnipmonster
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