Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Eight

jedinite · #1 10-28-2005, 05:00 PM

Last week: 3-1, win on the Game of the Week.
19-14 for the season (57.6%), 5-2 on the game of the week (71%).

Last two weeks have delivered very solid results, running 8-3 with 2-0 on Game of the Week. And two of those losses could have easily been wins, with Bulger going down costing me StL/Indy, and Philly winning but failing to cover the extra half-point last week. This week I expect many games to be very close to the Vegas lines. I wouldn't be suprised to see a push or two this week. I will be running 3-2-2-1-1 on units in order, with possible additions later in the week of the lines make favorable moves.

Dallas -9 vs Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road, the Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Dallas. Dallas is leading the NFL in time of possession (34:14), and Arizona is the second-worst rushing team in football which is going to make the time of possession discrepancy even worse. If it wasn't for halftime, its possible that Dallas would run out the entire game with a single scoring drive to win 7-0, but thanks to halftime and the resulting manditory change of possession we should see two scoring drives for the Cowboys and a single Arizona possession (whichever half they win posession via the cointoss) in which the Cardinals offense proceeds to go three & out, for a final score of 14-0. Game of the Week.

San Fran + 11 vs Tampa Bay
The 49ers are 9-1 at home against Tampa Bay. Tampa is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Bucs QB Chris Simms is making his first start of the season in place of injured Brian Griese. 49ers will load against the run and force Simms to throw. On offense, the 49ers should have a much more consistent QB performance from Ken Dorsey over rookie Alex Smith. Wagerline has this game 66%-33% in favor of Tampa Bay which also makes this a strong pick against public opinion. I simply can't believe that Tampa with Simms is going to cover by double digits in San Fran. 24-14 for the 49ers cover. This is also not a bad place for a small moneyline play on San Fran to win outright. 24-14 Tampa for the SF cover. Game of the Weak, but play it anyways.

Kansas City +6 (-105) at San Diego
Chiefs have had two extra days of rest and preparation, thanks to playing on Friday last week. The KC coaches have also had two extra days to prepare, and they no doubt used some of that extra time to study the film from last week's Philly / SD matchup. Look for the Chiefs to emulate the way that Philly shut down LT last week. The Chiefs defense is certainly no Philly D, but the Chiefs will look do stack eight in the box against LT and again force Brees to pass over the top. 24-23 San Diego for the Chiefs cover (thats two TDs and three FGs for KC, FYI).

Detroit -3 (-105) vs Chicago
Detroit this year is 3-0 ATS at home, 3-0 ATS on turf, and 5-1 ATS overall. This is an important game for both teams, as the winner takes sole possession of first place in the stellar NFC North division. Home crowd noise against a struggling rookie QB will be the edge in this game - Detroit can very easily stack the line with eight in the box against TJones and the Bears run game, and force Orton to throw the ball in to the dangerous Detroit secondary (leading the NFC in INTs at 13) I'm going to keep backing the Lions until they lose another game ATS - Ultimately I believe the general public sees Detroit as more weak than they actually are, which leads to their lines being intentionally misweighted to cover the public perception. 21-17 Detroit.

Baltimore +10.5 at Pittsburgh
Purely a public opinion play. Pittsburgh is 79% - 21% favored via Wagerline, which is the largest discrepancy of the season. Baltimore's defense has been underperforming this year, but perhaps they can step up to the task on the national scene. However the Steelers are 10-0 at home on Monday nights under Cowher, and it looks like the Ravens are minus Ray Lewis. However they've still got the #1 pass defense so they should be able to jam agaist the run and hopefully create points off turnovers. 24-17 Pittsburgh for the Baltimore cover.

Oakland (-2) at Tennessee
Note: not currently strongly recommended as a formal pick, as I've started to doubt my analysis.
Needs more work up, but posted here for the meantime so its easy to grab again if I do come back to it.
The Raiders are 3-1 ATS in the last four with the Titans and 3-1 ATS in their last four overall. The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home. Oakland continues to pound LaMont Jordan on the ground with 30+ touches. McNair is back but is still banged up, and the aggressive Oakland defense might just knock him out of the game entirely. The Raiders are generally terrible on the road (2-18 in their last 20) but they pull out the win here. 24-21 RRRRRaiders.

As usual, all picks archived on my blog, http://performify.com

#2 10-28-2005, 06:13 PM

I have a hard time believing Baltimore will put up 17 points at Pittsburgh

jedinite · #3 10-28-2005, 07:55 PM

Pitt has a strong rush defense (#6 in the NFL) but a mediocre pass defense (#18 in the NFL). The Ravens do have the worst ppg average in the NFL (11.5) and the Steelers do rank fourth in scoring defensive, giving up an average of 15.8 points a game. With an average of 15.8/game and the monday night factor, I don't think 17 is far out of line.

My early estimation was an offensive touchdown, a field goal, and a defensive (or shortfield) touchdown. My stat service projects 1.7 turnovers for Baltimore (and a 30% chance of a defensive TD) and I predict that a Ravens turnover will result in either a defensive touchdown or or at least short enough field position that we'll see two Ravens TDs.

If i'm right and Pitt puts up 24, two touchdowns alone for the Ravens would also cover (minus the FG) thanks to that lovely half point extra.

In general I'm estimating the Monday night factor to come in here, with the game being slightly more high-scoring than usual for both sides.

jedinite · #4 10-28-2005, 08:23 PM

Arizona has been outscored 162-24 in its last five visits to Texas Stadium. That is an average final of 32-5 over those last five games.

kyro · #5 10-28-2005, 08:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]

The 49ers are 9-1 at home against Tampa Bay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dating back to when SF didn't suck?

(I'm not saying pick TB. I am merely questioning your line of thought. I like to nitpick. Helps me learn.)

#6 10-28-2005, 08:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In general I'm estimating the Monday night factor to come in here, with the game being slightly more high-scoring than usual for both sides.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that both teams will score more than they normally do, except Baltimore. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

jedinite · #7 10-28-2005, 09:16 PM

Yeah, obviously that's back a number of years - and those types of long-term trends are only so valuable when they're in relation to a team that's experienced such a transition in talent across that same period. But the ability of an organization to win at a location can extend beyond just the level of talent any given year: here we're talking about a cross-state rivalry and those games tend to fire you up even more at home. Its worth mentioning that Tampa Bay's only road win over the Niners was a 24-23 victory at Candlestick Park in 1980

Ultimately the trend alone isn't ridiculously valuable. The most significant reason for picking this game was the discrepancy in ppg: Tampa is averaging 17.6ppg on the road and 19.33ppg overall. While San Fran is certainly allowing a lot of points, I don't see Tampa suddenly turning in to a high scoring offense at San Fran, and the 11 point discrepancy is way off in my opinion. Indy barely covered a large spread against San Fran (it took six turnovers and Indy still only covered by a single posession), and Indy's offense is much more potent than Tampa's.

The one-sided nature of the line @ Wagerline (in the other direction) also works to cement my pick.

jedinite · #8 10-30-2005, 01:15 PM

moving to a total of five units on Dallas, the last two coming at -9 (-105)

Adding two units on Detroit at -3 +105

San Fran line @ Bodog has dropped, likely indicating sharp money coming in late on San Fran. I like this play even more now (assuming you're locked in at the earlier line)...

Still recommending staying away from the Oakland game.

jedinite · #9 10-30-2005, 08:44 PM

Adding one unit (for three total) on Baltimore. Current line is +11.5 @ Bodog.

Performance sumarry so far:
2-2 with Monday night game still to play.
Win on game of the week.
Recommended small moneyline play on SanFran to win outright also came through for a nice result.

Chiefs game was close, with an eight point loss. Had KC held San Diego to a field goal on any one of their touchdowns (or especially the last one, when poor tackling allowed Gates to bust for his third), the scores predicted would have been almost right on the money.

Detroit was a close game that easily could have gone either way. I thought we were in great shape when the game went to OT and Detroit won the toss. Detroit's defense did a good job keeping the Chicago run game in check, but Orton did manage a couple big plays. He looked a little better than I expected against the Detroit secondary.

Should have listened to my first instinct on Oakland, second guessing myself has rarely proven sucessful.

jedinite · #10 10-31-2005, 01:15 AM

Baltimore line still on the move - ran through +11.5 (-105) and currently at +12 (-115) @ Bodog. I expect it to settle at no worse than +12 (-110) and may likely cross 12.5 or more.

I imagine we're looking at general public money coming in, people trying to make up for lost bets today with some major BSP losses (Tampa, Philly, Jacksonville, New England, etc) and taking the most popular of BSP picks this weekend.

I expect to add 1-2 units on Baltimore depending on where the line settles.