Performify's Pigskin Picks: Week Four

[jedinite]

I really like both Oakland and the Vikings this week. I'm in for 5/4/2/1 units this week. All lines available on either Bodog or BetOnSports as of posting, but please lineshop aggressively.

Yearly results: 8-8, 2-1 on Game of the Week Last week: 2-2, loss on GotW

Oakland -3 vs Dallas
This game is the Raiders' season. They are 0-3, but they played hard last week against the Eagles and took that game to the wire. More importantly, one thing I've learned in the past three weeks is that Dallas has serious, serious troubles in the secondary. I look for Oakland to work to establish the run with Lamont Jordan, but they're going to go up top several times for big scores. Moss and Porter both have career days, as does Collins. Game of the week by a landslide, even though there's a lot of public money on the Raiders already. Oakland 118, Dallas 98.

Minnesota +6 at Atlanta
This is a game of public perception, i think. Everyone I know loves Atlanta here, and once again I'm going the other way. Here's a laundry list of reasons: The Falcons allowed more than 500 yards passing their first two games, against Philly (understandable) and Seattle (!). Atlanta only settled down the pass defense last week against J.P. Losman, who was held to 75 yards passing - but he's terrible. Tice is on the hot seat. THis is practically a must-win for him.

Atlanta's banged up secondary - I know DeAngelo Hall and Jason Webster practiced Wednesday - Friday but they're still not 100%. But even so, the Vikings a much better team talent-wise than they're playing so far. Last week's confidence booster against NO, they didn't look perfect by any stretch but with fresh confidence they may be able to rumble over a real team.

Atlanta's strong run game against Vikes weak run D. - ATL will be able to run the ball and will likely grind a lot of clock. Mewelde Moore is a much better RB than a lot of people (general public opinion) give him credit for. Especially on turf. Despite Falcons solid defense, I think Minn will be able to run due to the strong passing threat of Dante versus the banged up secondary.

Vikings free safety Darren Sharper being questionable doesn't hurt them nearly as bad as most people think, in my opinion. Chavous is a great player at strong safety, and the Vikings are looking at going to four linebackers using 3rd year LB Dontarrious Thomas (out of Auburn) who is extremely quick and will help dramatically against the run compared to having Sharper. Thats assuming OLB E.J. Henderson (probable) is healthy, otherwise Thomas will be playing for him. I'm also actually considering Erasmus James (stud 1st round pick from Wisconsin) probably starting at DE as a good thing - he's much quicker despite his lack of experience and I think he could step up and be an x-factor for the Vikes defense.

Public perception is on the side of the Falcons, i think the smart money is fading that public groundswell. People seem to have forgotten how good the Vikes should be with the last three games, and have overvalued the Falcons who have looked spotty at best in the last three. Not saying Minn wins necessarily - but I think there's a lot of value in taking the points. Very very close to being GotW. Falcons 24, Vikings 21.

Kansas City -1.5 vs Philly
KC is 17-3 at home against NFC opponents since 1995. McNabb is beat up, and the Chiefs are going to go super-agressive on defense at home with the raucous Arrowhead crowd behind them. Surtain will match up well against Owens, the difference for the Chiefs is going to be stopping Westbrook from having a huge day recieving out of the backfield. 31-14 Kansas City.

Baltimore -7 vs Jets
While the spread is pretty significant, I really look for Baltimore's defense to step up majorly for the first time all season, and put a big hurting on the Jets, who are starting their third string QB Brooks Bollinger (and what's worse, backing him up with Vinny Testaverdi). While Baltimore is starting 2nd stringer Anthony Wright at QB, he's got experience as a starter and obviously is going against a much weaker defense. 24-10 Baltimore.

[TRWIII]

[ QUOTE ]
Oakland 118, Dallas 98

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

TRWIII

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
31-14 Kansas City

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I'm particular excited about the Eagles chances of winning this game, but if they lose by 17, I'll eat my shoe (I'd eat my hat, but I'm already going to eat that if the Giants score 40 points in another game this season).

[TheRover]

[ QUOTE ]
(I'd eat my hat, but I'm already going to eat that if the Giants score 40 points in another game this season).

[/ QUOTE ]

You might have to whip out the BBQ sauce this weekend. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I'm only slightly kidding.

[jedinite]

Good clarification point, i should add. I started with the score of 28-17 KC, but later decided Philly likely doesn't convert that field goal with Akers on the sidelines and Todd France kicking, so I moved the three to KC's side to keep the total the same.

I wouldn't be willing to bet a lot, but I'd bet a shoe-eating that the chiefs are closer to my original prediction of -11 than the official spread of -1.5. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[TheRover]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(I'd eat my hat, but I'm already going to eat that if the Giants score 40 points in another game this season).

[/ QUOTE ]

You might have to whip out the BBQ sauce this weekend. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I'm only slightly kidding.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I want pics of this or something.

[jedinite]

quick recap, so i don't loose my thoughts for the "what did we learn: week four" thread that will spark after MNF tomorrow -

3-1 on game of the week so far this year, however just 10-10 overall on the season.

Oakland -3 vs Dallas
Oakland looked worse than expected. Dallas secondary gave up a big early play to Moss, but Collins & Co failed to go deep after that for some reason. I really expected Moss / Porter to burn the Dallas secondary a lot more - the secondary still looked subpar, but for some reason Oakland just wouldn't go downfield on them. Oakland did do a solid job on establishing the run - Lamont Jordan had his best game of the year. I really expected this game to be much more of a shootout.

Minnesota +6 at Atlanta
Obviously missed this one. Turns out Minnesota is as bad as everyone thinks they are. Culpepper looked terrible, M.Moore looked OK though. I imagine he's solidified the starting job there. Atlanta's strong running game proved too much for the weak Vikings run defense. Look for solid running teams to continue to walk all over the Vikings. Culpepper must have some serious confidence issues - its not a matter of having Moss gone, Dante is flat out overthrowing his receivers, making terrible reads, and overall simply underperforming. Vick going down has to be troubling for Falcons fans.

Kansas City -1.5 vs Philly
If nothing else, this game showed the value of momentum in the NFL, and how quickly it can swing. Kansas City was dominating until allowing a major momentum swing, with two big fumbles (Larry Johnson and Dante Hall on a kick return). Look for LJ to lose a little favor with the KC coaches due to his continued fumble problems, although that probably won't have much affect on the betting world, it should slightly up the fantasy value of Priest Holmes. Even as bad as this game went in the second half for the Chiefs, they still could and should have had this game - it just seemed every break went the Eagles way (tipped pass by KC intercepted by Eagles defense, tipped pass by KC defense ends up touchdown for Eagles offense, etc). I'm still confident about my pregame analysis, the Chiefs really gave this game away.

Baltimore -7 vs Jets
Pretty easy game to see coming, despite a little sweat at the end with the Jets getting the ball back with about 5:00 left. Baltimore defense did step up for the first time this season and proved why they were ranked in the top tier. Wright did OK for the Ravens, but still struggled. Hopefully he'll improve with another week of practice. The Bollinger / Testaverdi options for the Jets sure looks like trouble for the rest of the season - I imagine you're going to see a lot of big spreads and low totals on the remainder of the Jets games, possibly even so skewed that taking the Jets in the future might have value, as ugly as that play looks.

[CCx]

I think it's interesting that you give the Eagles absolutely no credit for a great comeback win. I realize you lost your bet, but reality would enjoy having you back at some point. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jedinite]

Yeah, its all semantics at this point anyways. Chiefs lost, Eagles won, whatever... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I've been an Eagles fan for a number of years, but I really think KC gave this game away - with the exception of the first interception (a solid defensive play i certainly give the Brown credit for) the Chiefs gave the ball away by turnover way too many times, the Eagles were there to capitalize.

yeah, McNabb looked great in the second half, but you can't generally turn the ball over four times like that and not call it "giving the game away".

If KC had recovered the onside kick at the end, I'm pretty confident that KC would have been able to march downfield again and score. They were able to score on that last possession very easily.

I have no idea what happened to KC in the second half beyond the turnovers. KC gets one of those four turnovers back and its a whole different game I think.

Good writeup on the game here on USAtoday:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/footb...s-chiefs_x.htm