Just calling the flop w/ overpair

[Rico Suave]

UTG raises preflop a lot, especially with any pair. The field, as you can see, is prone to cold calling.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Rico is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Rico calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (11.33 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Rico calls.

Turn: (7.66 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, Rico folds....

I did not raise the flop b/c of my relative position to the preflop raiser. A raise here offered no protection for my hand unless UTG decided to 3-bet, which would help protect my hand, but would also indicate that I was behind (UTG would back down if played back at). There are a zillion cards that I will not like on the turn..so I called. With the plan of raising a favorable turn.

okay?

-Rico

[Rico Suave]

nm

[J.R.]

Looks fine to me.

[JohnShaft]

Problem.
Raising a favourable turn? That's like what? A 7 or 8? That's 8 cards. The other 40 come in various flavours of non-favourable.

Because of that I think you don't have a whole lot of choice than to raise the flop. An overcard or straight draw is almost bound to hit the Turn.

And if UTG so obviously has an overpair if he 3-bets your Flop raise then it becomes pretty easy to play your hand, and fold, either on the flop or the turn (if you decide you have the implied odds for the set).

Raising this flop, and taking control means you're ahead, but you're still in the same position where you are very vulnerable. But at least you can probably decide how to control the betting.

[Rico Suave]

John Shaft:

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Raising a favourable turn? That's like what? A 7 or 8? That's 8 cards

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Good point. Although I think you can throw in a 2, 3, 9, maybe even a 5 maybe even 19 favorable cards [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising this flop, and taking control means you're ahead, but you're still in the same position where you are very vulnerable. But at least you can probably decide how to control the betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure I see the value in controlling the betting here. If a T,J,Q,K comes, and it is checked to me.. do I bet? Do I check? (someone with one of those cards may not bet, but they are not folding on that board.) I have control, but is it really helping win more or save more in this spot?

--Rico

[JohnShaft]

Sorry, I missed the 9's. 2's, 3's, and 5's? Maybe. Though it would hardly be a revelation if they weren't all good for you. And then, do you expect UTG to bet the Turn if you are ahead?

I think the most value you have in controlling the betting is deciding whether a bet goes in on the River (and some times the Turn).

The big thing is though you mentioned if UTG 3-bets the flop you're behind to his overpair.
If he plays like that do you expect him to bet the Turn into 3 players? I think he can only half be expected to do that because he has the straight draw.

I still don't see a whole lot of problem with raising the flop. Particularly as you've said UTG is so transparent that you'll know right then if your overpair is any good.
To me that gives you a lot of value to the flop raise because you can get away from your weak overpair very cheaply. As opposed to raising a &lt;50% blank Turn and finding out he has an overpair anyway...

[J.R.]

Your flop decision raises an issue similar to the one presented here which, while a decisive opinion may not have been reached, contained some good discussion by ike, JTG, 1800Gambler and others about the merits of just calling the flop with top pair in a big pot after lots of flop calls on a board where a lot of turn cards are dangerous. Although it is perhaps less likely that you are ahead here than in the GOT hand, there are also more potentially bad turn cards for you in this spot than in the GOT hand.

This spot is also similar to the HPFAP example where waiting to the turn with top pair on a 3 flush flop is advocated.

[PokerNoob]

I like a flop raise here. You may or may not fold out MP2 and MP3's overcards and UTG may or may not 3-bet you with AK, but you've got to do something other than play for your 2-outer because overcards will fall. You can also get away if either of the MP players call/cap with their sets. If can also get away pretty cheap if UTG leads out on the turn after calling or 3-betting you, or if middle position players wake up and bet if UTG checks. And as John Shaft says, you may also be checked to on the turn and river and you can decided to take a free card or free showdown.

How did the hand play out with MP2's raise of UTG? Was he slowplaying a nice flop, strong jack or a semibluff?

[Rico Suave]

Pokernoob:

[ QUOTE ]
but you've got to do something other than play for your 2-outer because overcards will fall.

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First off, I was not playing for my 2 outer, I in fact thought there was an excellent chance that I had the best hand on the flop. And like you, I think overcards are likely. So, if I cannot fold my opponents with a raise, why not call, take a look at the turn card and turn action before committing more chips to the pot?

[ QUOTE ]
If can also get away pretty cheap if UTG leads out on the turn after calling or 3-betting you, or if middle position players wake up and bet if UTG checks.

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I agree that I can get away *if* they bet. If they *do not* bet when the J, Q, T, etc hits on the turn then I think I have to bet the turn, and their *not* betting does not indicate that I still have the best hand.

Bascially I felt pretty helpless here....the best hand on the flop, with no way to protect it. Throwing more chips into the pot at that point, when I am truly at the mercy of the poker gods (they hate me, you know), did not seem wise at the time.


--Rico

[Rico Suave]

JR:

Thanks for the link.

--Rico