QTipSession

QTip · #1 06-21-2005, 11:23 AM

I have an idea...maybe good maybe bad. I'm not sure.

Last night I ran a session that was close to an hour and a half (8 tables, 677 hands). I dropped 70BB (no big deal). Sometimes we're tempted to call this variance, but I don't think a lot of it was. I think I played pretty horrible poker. I've not intensly gone over the entire session; however, I wouldn't be surprised to see that perhaps only 30% of this drop could be attributed to the "short term luck factor" of the game.

At any rate, the session had quite a few different situations that I think I handled pretty poorly. I wanted to send this session to a friend to look over, but I know he's pretty busy lately. So...then I was thinking about what other poster to send it to. Then, I thought, why not the whole SS Forum, and let whoever wants to take a peek at this session do so. I sort of like the idea. Sometimes we can best learn by seeing what NOT to do.

Anyway, I've hosted my 677 hand session at QTipSession

If you don't have access to PT, you can just drop this in Excel or something and then use the find feature to search for "QTip" to go throught the hands quickly.

I think my VPIP was like 18 for the session, so there are probably about 120 hands I was involved in.

We can do a couple things with this project:

1. What was the worse hand I played (biggest mistake).

2. How much of this 70 BB drop can be assigned to short term luck. i.e. Should I have just lost 30BB or less if I played better? etc.

3. What do you think was the most interesting situation I was in?

4. What reoccuring mistake do you think cost the most bets in this session...biggest session leak.

4. And anything else you want to add.

So...this will be quite humiliating, but I hope to learn something from it, and I hope others will to. Some of the things were read sensitive, but you can always say "If this person was passive..., or if this person was loose..." or whatever.

If this is a dumb idea, just let the thread die or don't participate. If you like the idea....well then, have at it.

trentcroad · #2 06-21-2005, 11:31 AM

I think this is a really good idea QTip.
Look forward to checking out ur play!

chief444 · #3 06-21-2005, 11:34 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: (7 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

2nd hand I glanced at.

QTip · #4 06-21-2005, 11:38 AM

Oh...the question I meant to add in the post that I was thinking about when we talk about winrate and variance.

Let’s say that I average 2bb/100 over a million hands. However, I run a session of 1000 hands in which I win 10 bb. However, in that 1000 hand session, I play in such a manner that if I were to run a million hands at the skill level at which I was playing that 1000 hand session, I would be a break even player. Is that an upswing or a downswing. How does a player’s inconsistency effect a winrate or variance? Is my thinking off in left field or something here?

QTip · #5 06-21-2005, 11:46 AM

Matt:

You may want to edit your post as somehow the flop action got in the PF action...

N/M...here it is.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks,

Flop: (7 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

SB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

This hand I was trying to check to see what the field would do and raise a LP bet (we talked about hands like these last week or so). This guy was fairly passive, so I thought the fold to the raise was a good decision.

jskills · #6 06-21-2005, 11:50 AM

I could go through all of them, but the first bunch looked ok. It does seem like you prefer to get very aggressive with middle pocket pairs preflop.

This one seemed pretty off base to me.

Just one hand, I wish I could look at them all, but I am working [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, UTG caps, Hero calls, UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero calls.

With 77, I wouldn't reraise someone who is raising UTG. You may have had reads that dictated differently, but the normal range of hands for a UTG raiser all pretty much beat 77 or are a coin flip at best.

Flop: (10.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)

UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero calls.

On the flop, I guess you have to bet, but you seem to have no fear of an A or a higher PP. Not sure there are odds to even call the C/R?

Turn: (5.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

I'd have to be folding after getting check raised on the flop.

River: (7.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Calling down seems too stubborn here.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Results in white below: 
SB doesn't show.
UTG has Td Th (full house, tens full of aces).
Hero has 7d 7h (two pair, aces and sevens).
Outcome: UTG wins 9.25 BB.

chief444 · #7 06-21-2005, 11:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Let’s say that I average 2bb/100 over a million hands. However, I run a session of 1000 hands in which I win 10 bb. However, in that 1000 hand session, I play in such a manner that if I were to run a million hands at the skill level at which I was playing that 1000 hand session, I would be a break even player. Is that an upswing or a downswing.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're killing me Owen. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
How does a player’s inconsistency effect a winrate or variance? Is my thinking off in left field or something here?

[/ QUOTE ]
Assuming you normally play at your best, any inconsistency would negatively effect winrate since you can't play better than your best so inconsistent = worse. Logically, it seems any inconsistency could only increase variance generally speaking. But that really isn't true. I think it depends on what you mean by "inconsistent". Calling down too much (making obviously incorrect calls) would increase variance. Playing less aggressively would more often than not decrease variance. Unless you start limping preflop with AA and such. Then it increases variance. I doubt if playing inconsistently really has much effect on your overall variance unless your play drastically changes and you play inconsistently a decent portion of the time.

How do geese in the fairway effect variance in golf? Not much because only Owen hits them. How do 18 year old blond girls watching Owen effect the consistency of his tee shots? Apparently a lot. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

chief444 · #8 06-21-2005, 11:52 AM

Done. Thanks.

Sarge85 · #9 06-21-2005, 11:53 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)

Turn: (9 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, CO calls $8 (All-In), Button folds, Hero calls.

God I'm sure I'll be horrifically flamed for this, but I can find a fold here.

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

QTip · #10 06-21-2005, 11:55 AM

Alright funny man!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Actually I do think it's possible to play at levels better than you're capable of thinking at time. There are only so many options, and I think it's quite possible to make the correct decision for the wrong reason. Your play there could be excellent play, but your reason would show that your thinking was not excellent thinking. Granted, this probably wouldn't likely happen for any great length of time over a great span of hands.