Conspiracy Theory Du Jour

[adios]

I heard this conspiracy theory today and thought I'd pass it along. Futures contracts on oil and natural gas are selling at near record levels way in the outlying months including the ones years in advance. Much of the time the near term prices have been a lot higher than those prices in the future because the spike in oil prices is thought to probably be a temporary thing (that's my take anyway). At any rate the conspiracy theory I heard today was that Bush has told folks that need to know that they should be stock piling oil and natural gas because there will be disruptions in supplies of oil from Iran soon (don't know about natural gas there). Hard for me believe that military intervention in Iran is feasible at this point.

Natural Gas Futures

Oil Futures

[superleeds]

Any chance you can give us a laymans rough and ready explanation to what these columns/figures mean.

Thanks in advance

[adios]

I'll give it a go.

Month - When delivery is taken. If it's December of 2010 that's when delivery of the commodity is taken. So for whatever reason you're willing to buy and/or sell the commodity that's deliverable in 2010 at that price. It's when the contract expires and delivery of the commodity is due.

Open - Opening price for the day.

High - High price for the day.

Low - Low price for the day.

Last - last price where the contract traded.

Time - time of last trade.

Sett - settlement price for the day

Chg - change in price from the previous day the last trade was made at.

Vol - Number of contracts traded

Ticks - Net number of upticks (trades made at a higher price than the previous trade).

OpInt - Open interest, net number of contracts that have been let out. If people trade the contracts for those people that initiate a position that are on the buy side the open interest increases by one. When they sell, the open interest decreases by one. For those that initiate a position by a sale the open interest is increased by one. When and/if they buy back the contract the open interest decreases by one. For those that keep their position when the contract expires are the ones that have to take/make delivery and this is the final open interest.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

The disruption would thus have to be of a very temporary nature. Wouldn't it, or is it something I am not getting?

[jokerthief]

[ QUOTE ]
Hard for me believe that military intervention in Iran is feasible at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've heard military experts say that a naval blockade of the straight of Hormuz would be more likely to happen in response to Iran enriching uranium than overt military action.

[adios]

.................

[adios]

Not sure but I guess the implication is that their production capabilities will be hampered on a long term basis. Seems like a wild theory that doesn't hold together too well as you more or less pointed out.