AA - PL100 - Time to lose a small pot?

[CryptoManiac]

The villain in the hand is the biggest winner at this limit for the site I play on. He is a good player and thinks about what he is doing. He views me as aggressive but lays down to my continuation bets the vast majority of the time/unless he has something with playing back with. He likes to semi bluff but I can’t recall ever seeing him bluffing outright. His stats are 33/8/1.56 after 3,600 hands, mine are 27/14/3.2 for this session so far.

Do you lead the turn here? If you check (like I did) do you call or raise his bet? If so what's your plan on the river?

The game is PL 100
Seat 1: Hero ($404.50 in chips)
Seat 3: Vilian ($240.58 in chips)
Seat 4: SB ($72.50 in chips)
Seat 6: BB ($284.44 in chips)
SB: posts small blind $0.50
BB: posts big blind $1
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Hero [A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
Hero: raises to $3.50
Vilian: calls $3.50
SB: calls $3
BB: folds
----- FLOP ----- [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
SB: checks
Hero: bets $9
Vilian: calls $9
SB: folds
----- TURN ----- [Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]][Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
SB leaves the table
Hero: checks
Vilian: bets $9
Hero: …

Obviously, the 2 hands that you're worried about are AQ and KQ. However, I think a pocket pair is much more likely with JJ or TT being the most likely. Your bet on the Flop may have looked like a continuation bet. This is especially true after your check on the Turn. He probably thinks you have AK or even a pocket pair that he can beat. Since he's a good player, the small bet on the turn is either a probe bet or just some juicy bait (if he has the case Q). It's a tricky situation. I would have led with a 1/3 - 1/2 pot bet on the Turn. Mostly for value but also to see if my opponent's serious about the hand.

[Bco1/75]

5/10 rule?.... call.

[NickPoker]

Check call it down. I don't see how you get away from this, and I don't think the villain calls a raise without the nuts, by the way you described him. If he puts in a massive overbet on river you may have to reconsider. If you can only lose $50 with the 2nd nuts, I wouldn't sweat it too much.

[Sadat X]

I think you're giving villian a little too much credit. I'd definately want to see a showdown here.