What do I make of this....

Ken_AA · #1 10-13-2005, 02:57 PM

I generally don't like taking advice from the book I'm betting with but this comes from the main page of the MVP Sportsbetting account I recently opened.....
October 13, 2005: Welcome to Super-Sport Thursday featuring MLB Playoff Action, NCAA Football Action and NHL Action...

MLB PLAYOFF ACTION: One MLB Playoff Game today with the Houston Astros vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at 8:00 p.m. EST. Action has started to come in on Houston on the Runline; Houston on the Moneyline; and, Under on the total. Get your bets in NOW!

NCAA FOOTBALL: Two NCAA Football Games today. UL Lafayette takes on Arkansas State at 7:30 p.m. EST (action favoring Arkansas State and Over). Clemson takes on North Carolina State at 7:45 p.m. EST (action favoring Clemson and Under). Get your NCAA Football bets in NOW!

NHL ACTION: Seven games on the board with two large decisions as of 10:00 a.m. EST. Decisions include: VERY HEAVY on the Red Wings and Moderately Heavy on the Buffalo Sabres. Get your NHL Bets in NOW!

They're telling me where the action is coming in?
Should I use this in my decision making process?

Ken

Oski · #2 10-13-2005, 02:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I generally don't like taking advice from the book I'm betting with but this comes from the main page of the MVP Sportsbetting account I recently opened.....
October 13, 2005: Welcome to Super-Sport Thursday featuring MLB Playoff Action, NCAA Football Action and NHL Action...

MLB PLAYOFF ACTION: One MLB Playoff Game today with the Houston Astros vs. the St. Louis Cardinals at 8:00 p.m. EST. Action has started to come in on Houston on the Runline; Houston on the Moneyline; and, Under on the total. Get your bets in NOW!

NCAA FOOTBALL: Two NCAA Football Games today. UL Lafayette takes on Arkansas State at 7:30 p.m. EST (action favoring Arkansas State and Over). Clemson takes on North Carolina State at 7:45 p.m. EST (action favoring Clemson and Under). Get your NCAA Football bets in NOW!

NHL ACTION: Seven games on the board with two large decisions as of 10:00 a.m. EST. Decisions include: VERY HEAVY on the Red Wings and Moderately Heavy on the Buffalo Sabres. Get your NHL Bets in NOW!

They're telling me where the action is coming in?
Should I use this in my decision making process?

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

Generally, I am not comfortable with taking plays recommended by my own bookie.

Ken_AA · #3 10-13-2005, 03:22 PM

I agree, and was going to bet the Under on the NCST game. Now the book is telling me other people are also.

1) Do they think I will bet with other people, and want me to bet that way?

2) Do they want me to go the other way?

This has me flustered, but they also aren't recomending a play, they are just saying when side money is coming in on.

I wish I hadn't noticed it just like I hadn't noticed it the other dozen times I have logged in.

Ken

PS. I am going to keep track of what the record is on the teams that they say money is coming in on that I'm not betting on (mostly hockey). Hopefully this will become a good fading tool.

jedinite · #4 10-13-2005, 03:41 PM

For what its worth, from Wagerline:

Houston 50.97% +139 St Louis 49.03%
Total 7.5 Over: 66.95% Under: 33.05%

La Lafayette 33.17% +10.5 Arkansas St 66.83%
Total: 51 Over: 58.46% Under: 41.54%

Clemson 56.49% +4 No Carolina St 43.51%
Total: 45.5 Over: 49.41% Under: 50.59%

The only two that i'd worry about being on the wrong side of are the MLB Over and on Arkansas St. Otherwise the book is probably advertising for their own niche action which they'll otherwise have to lay off with another book.

Ken_AA · #5 10-14-2005, 03:54 PM

I would have gone 8-1 and plus 7.9 Units. thats not what I expected.

Ken

#6 10-14-2005, 05:09 PM

When you want a call say or do ANYTHING. Miscellaneous rambling or motions can often trigger a calling reflex in your opponent.

I would imagine your sports book is using much the same psychology here. They figure some people like yourself will see their advice as a trap and others will see it as the gospel truth... in either case they get action.

Ken_AA · #7 10-14-2005, 10:12 PM

Well I have no problem betting against the public on a rgular basis. I also like the action. So now I just have to decide if this is a good way to fade the public or not..... most likely not, But I have the time to keep records for a bit and find out.

Ken

LLXC · #8 10-14-2005, 11:05 PM

I try to bet against the public when the line moves the other way. That usually means the big rollers are not with the public and know something the public doesn't.