Big lay down

blumpkin22 · #1 08-19-2005, 04:30 AM

No reads. Always suspicious when the bring-in calls two bets.

7 Card Stud High ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises

4th Street - (6.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 5: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets___calls

5th Street - (5.35 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Hero: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets___folds

Total pot: (7.35 BB)

lane mcbride · #2 08-19-2005, 05:13 AM

Yeah... makes me suspicious too. I'm guessing 456 clubs or rolled sixes.

blumpkin22 · #3 08-19-2005, 04:14 PM

After he raises 4th and I still bet into him on 5th and he raises again, I could almost surely rule out two small pair in my mind; two pair also doesn't make sense given his call on 3rd. His range of hands in my opinion are, in order of likelihood:

(1) (6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(2) (8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(3) (A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(4) (two clubs) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(5) (7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
(6) (6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Ray Zee · #4 08-19-2005, 05:20 PM

he could have lots of hands raising here on fifth. or wanting a free card on sixth. bad fold against all but the tightest of players with no imagination.
your real mistake was in betting fifth with the intention of folding if raised.

blumpkin22 · #5 08-19-2005, 06:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
he could have lots of hands raising here on fifth. or wanting a free card on sixth. bad fold against all but the tightest of players with no imagination.
your real mistake was in betting fifth with the intention of folding if raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

At this level, after failing to get a free card from the raise on 4th, all but the most aggressive players will not try again for a free card with another raise on 5th. I had no evidence to believe he was in this uber-aggressive category.

Perhaps the bet/fold line on 5th was wrong. It depends if he thinks I'm capable of making this laydown. There have been very few times when I've seen a player fold aces in a heads up spot like this. Thus, I don't think he thought I would ever fold my hand.

It would be a different story if he thought I was on a steal. It is quite obvious that I am not. And no, I don't think that he was thinking one more level ahead. So I guess I'm saying that I do not think he was very imaginative.

#6 08-19-2005, 05:31 PM

why couldn't he have 4 flush with the 10C, so he has 10's and draw against your aces? why couldn't he just have a hidden pair like J's or Q's and just using his board to take down the pot. if you played like that against me i would take so many pots from you as would other observant players. i say play on in this hand. you might need to fold on 6th if he gets a super card, but otherwise you're going to the river baby.

blumpkin22 · #7 08-19-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
why couldn't he have 4 flush with the 10C, so he has 10's and draw against your aces?

[/ QUOTE ]

The T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is dead.

[ QUOTE ]
why couldn't he just have a hidden pair like J's or Q's and just using his board to take down the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would he call the double bet on third with that hand? Once I raise 3rd and bet after being raised on 5th, he can't think I'm not showing my hand down.

[ QUOTE ]
if you played like that against me i would take so many pots from you as would other observant players. i say play on in this hand. you might need to fold on 6th if he gets a super card, but otherwise you're going to the river baby.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one of the few times I've folded aces before the river, and I highly doubt he was pulling a move. All signs point toward a monster hand. If you want to try these moves against me, feel free. More often than not you will be giving me your chips.

Roland · #8 08-20-2005, 11:53 AM

The real problem with analysing this hand is that you don’t have any notes. But I’ll do my best and just assume this guy is a somewhat typical $10/$20 player - a little too loose, moderately aggressive, and with a basic understanding of correct strategy.
So let’s see if we can put him on a range of hands that makes some sense:

- AA: Very unlikely. He should know to re-raise on 3rd with this holding. He’s obviously not the super-passive calling station type, given his raises on 4th and 5th, so I’d rule this out.
- QQ or KK: Also very unlikely. At least one queen is dead and two kings are dead too. Besides, he would have to be pretty stupid to play either of these holdings for two bets cold; and why would he raise again on 5th when you obviously have the aces?
- Smaller buried pair: Well, there are players who would call two bets cold with a crappy medium pair here, but they’re few and far between, especially at the $10/$20’s. What’s more, players like that get a note reading “FISH” pretty fast if I encounter them, and I guess the same is true for you. So since you didn’t have notes, we can rule out smaller buried pairs I think.
- The same is true for split sixes and any ugly straight draw, obviously.

So if I didn’t miss anything, it pretty much boils down to either rolled sixes or a 3-flush. Granted, it isn’t impossible for him to have one of the above hands, but when I encounter an unknown at these stakes I’m generally willing to give him some credit. Seems to be the safe way.

Let’s look at the rolled sixes first:
My preferred way to play them would be to simply 3-bet on 3rd, but just calling is probably what most players would do. Raising on 4th to represent a flush draw is an interesting way to play them (probably the best way; although he might lose you if he hits another club, he’ll “miss” most of the time, giving him the opportunity to get in another raise on 5th).
So rolled sixes definitely make a lot of sense.

Now the 3-flush:
Let’s just assume he’ll call with any 3-flush here (as opposed to just the straight-flush draw). Although it’s incorrect, many players would.
What really causes me some trouble is his raise on 4th though - he wants the third player in , not out with a flush draw. This is, of course, the spot where a good read is crucial - does he understand this? Likewise, does he raise again on 5th, trying for the free card? (I don’t agree with your assessment that this is uncommon btw - I see it fairly often).

So if you don’t think he would make this raise on 4th with a 4-flush, than yeah, it’s a good fold. OTOH, if you’re not sure, you should continue - there are many more ways he can have two clubs in the hole than two sixes, obviously. Also, keep in mind that the pot is pretty big at this point; without a read, this would make me want to call him down.

frappeboy · #9 08-20-2005, 08:01 PM

His most likely hand is a 4 flush with the 8 9 or 10 of clubs in the hole. The standard play is to raise 5th and check behind on 6th when you miss the flush or dont improve. Folding here is a really weak play given the action.