The last 5 contested states?

[Dynasty]

I just heard on FoxNews that both the Bush and Kerry campaigns have announced where the candidates will be compaigning in-person over the last nine days before Election Day. Those states are:

Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
Wisconsin (10)
Iowa (7)
New Mexico (5)

If the other 45 states go to the 2000 winner, the Electoral College would stand this way:

Bush: 231
Kerry: 238

It's hard to believe New Hampshire(4) is safely in either candidate's collumn. That was a Bush state in 2000. But, the last three polls put it within the margine of error with Bush winning 2 polls and Kerry winning 1. Other states could swing one way or the other if the candidates focused serious energy there. But, without that effort, they should be expected to go the same way as 2000.

[theBruiser500]

Is your poll good news for Kerry? I hope so, go Kerry!!

[JimBob2232]

Most of the states should go as they did in 2000. One possible exception is Hawaii where a recent Poll has kerry up just 1. (Gore won by 18).

Out of those 5 states, Bush looks pretty good in IA, FL and WI. That would give him the EVs he needs, even if he loses ohio (which looks close). Its too close to call at this point, but I think it looks pretty good for bush. Should be interesting down the stretch.

[andyfox]

Dunno. If I had to pick those five states right now, I'd only give Kerry Wisconsin.

Kerry should have taken one of Florida's senators as his running mate. Could be a fatal mistake not to have.

[vulturesrow]

Andy, I know we have talked about this before, but Kerry's choice of a running mate may go down in history of one of the most ill-conceived ever.

[JimBob2232]

Yeah, kerry wound up picking a candidate that cant win his own state, and it doesnt appear he is making ANY inroads in the south. So basically he provides nothing to this ticket as far as vote drawing ability. Gephardt could have brought MO. Bob Graham could have brought Florida. A mistake IMO.
On the flip side, Cheney IMO is a drag on the GOP ticket. Replace him with Guliani or Pataki and NY might be in play. Grab Tom Ridge and perhaps you get PA. Cheney brings some credibility (not much), and experience to the ticket. But overall, i think he is a liability for the president.

BTW, recent WI poll (gallup) has bush up 6. I wouldnt be so quick to give that to kerry.

[vulturesrow]

I really dont think Cheney is a liability in the sense that I dont think people will vote against Bush just because they dont like Cheney. I think Cheney helps Bush in more subtle ways other than just getting a state to swing his way.

[anatta]

Kerry is looking good in OHIO boys. Real good. Don't think Bush is going to win Hawaii 4 EVs. Poll was 44 - 43 Bush, but you gotta be kidding me, every other poll has Kerry up. Its a blue state. Although Phillipinoes love Bush, think he's tough on terror, terror is big problem on Motherland.

[vulturesrow]

I think you are being a little too optimistic on Ohio. If you take all the polls and other indicators collectively, it looks to be a dead heat.

[$DEADSEXE$]

Any battleground state in which polls show Kerry and Bush tied will most likely go to Kerry simply becuase the majority of new voters and undecideds will go to the challenger not to Bush.