O8 Sims: Top set v. various draws

[Phat Mack]

There was a discussion in a thread below as to how good a set was in loose games where the board made flushes and straights possible.

Below is an attempt to publish a table listing the results of Poker Probe sims of hands flopping top set against from one to eight opponents in different situations. These different situations are depicted by the different boards which represent possible flushes and/or straights.

For example, board number 1 has 0 flushes; 2 different possible straights; 0 common straight-filling cards used in more than one straight; 1 straight-filling card is in Hero's (top set) hand. Listed are the win percentages against 1-8 opponents playing random hands. 100,000 deals for each hand.

<pre><font class="small">code:</font><hr>
High Shares of Unimproved Sets
Board Hand Opponents
FD SD CC BL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 KdTs7c6d3s 0 2 0 KsKh5d2c 1 84.04% 70.24% 58.50% 48.49% 39.59% 32.53% 26.42% 21.56%
2 KdTs7c6s3s 1 2 0 KsKh5d2c 1 69.12% 46.52% 30.88% 19.45% 12.24% 7.46% 4.13% 2.66%
3 KdJsTs7c3s 1 2 1 KsKh5d2c 0 62.74% 38.55% 22.55% 12.91% 6.94% 3.61% 1.78% 0.80%
4 KdTh9s7s5c 0 3 2 KsKh5d2c 0 76.22% 57.56% 42.51% 31.38% 22.62% 16.38% 11.18% 7.60%
5 KdTh9s6s5c 0 2 0 KsKh5d2c 0 81.82% 66.77% 53.94% 43.33% 34.92% 27.54% 21.83% 17.16%
6 KdJh9s7s4c 0 2 1 KsKh5d2c 0 83.63% 69.35% 56.82% 46.28% 37.31% 29.49% 23.06% 17.64%
7 KdTh9s5s4c 0 1 0 KsKh5d2c 0 90.95% 82.34% 74.25% 66.68% 59.83% 53.18% 47.53% 41.78%
7a KdTh9s5s4s 1 1 0 KsKh5d2c 0 74.14% 53.94% 38.48% 26.72% 18.04% 11.73% 7.28% 4.33%
7b KdJh8s5s3s 1 0 0 KsKh5d2c 0 81.18% 65.15% 51.18% 39.82% 29.46% 21.55% 14.94% 9.99%
8 KdTh9s6s5c 0 2 0 KsKhJd2c 1 83.88% 70.33% 58.50% 48.55% 39.96% 32.71% 26.62% 21.20%
9 KdJh9s7s4c 0 2 2 KsKhTd2c 1 87.37% 76.05% 65.33% 55.99% 47.30% 39.74% 33.09% 27.21%

100,000 deals.
Opponents play random hands
FD: Number of Flush Draws
SD: Number of Straight Draws
CC: Number of Common Cards in different straight draws
BL: Blockers. Number of outs to straight draws contained in Hand
</pre><hr>

Thanks for the stats. Very informative.

I think that the real question is how people play top set in the real world - both tournaments and ring games. We have all been in the position where we flop top set (with or without a back door low draw possible) and get butchered by the river. The real stats that are meaningful would be a table showing what the % would be when there is a flush or straight draw on the flop and turn. Very often we will see a turn card that has two high cards and two low cards (e.g. Q953 where we have QQ) and many callers to a raise or cap. The reality might be that our only outs are the 10 to a full house or quads.

If you could run some sims on this type of possibility, rather than the ones you did, it would be invaluable to us 2+2 readers.

[Buzz]

Mack - Thank you! Perfect! What a monumental effort!

It will take me a while to digest your results and I'll get back to you.

Thanks again.

Buzz

[DPCondit]

Hi Mack,

Thanks for doing some more good research, and laying it out in such a useful fashion. Now, instead of trying to analyze every single situation, in every possible way, perhaps we could pull out one or two of the more challenging boards and walk through a few scenarios to see how they play out. I think that would do a lot teach/learn the proper concepts of how to play these hands properly. I may pull out one of the hands later and invent a scenario or two myself. But, I think I'll wait and see if anyone else wants to choose one first.

Don

[Phat Mack]

We have all been in the position where we flop top set (with or without a back door low draw possible) and get butchered by the river.

That is one of things I wanted to examine. When you have top set, what do you do when you don't fill up by the river? Under what circumstances should you show down the hand?

The real stats that are meaningful would be a table showing what the % would be when there is a flush or straight draw on the flop and turn.

Not a bad idea. If I understand you correctly, we could run some sims where there was a straight or flush, or a straight or flush draw, on the turn, and see how the set fares. It might be possible to compute it mathematically. The above sims were only meant to address 5th street situations.

[Phat Mack]

It will take me a while to digest your results

Digest? And I haven't even started chewing...

[Phat Mack]

perhaps we could pull out one or two of the more challenging boards and walk through a few scenarios to see how they play out.

Good idea. I haven't had a chance to try and make anything out of this either. You'll note that all the individual boards are listed by descending card rank. It might be fun to take a hand or two and examine their play when the same board comes in several different orders.

I would be very interested in seeing the sims for the possibilities on the turn - especially the % of scoops. Unless you are in a pot limit or no limit game, it is VERY hard to get anyone off their draws. Some of my biggest plusses and minuses have come with top set vs. st8, flush and low draws - e.g. someone having A2s, another a wrap st8 and the board being something like KTx with 2 to a flush or K76 and 2 to a flush with me having KKxx . In the first example I will scoop when the boards pairs (except quads) and split when two unmatching low cards come. In the second example when another high and a pair come it's scoop time. I do love those scoopers [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[DPCondit]

Okay, noboday has picked anything yet. Lets give it a try.

We will use KSKh5d2c for our hand in all examples.

Scenario #1

We are big blind, 4 people limp pre-flop, we check.

Flop KdTs&amp;c,

We know (90% sure) UTG is going to bet, we check, UTG bets, 2 callers, we raise, everyone calls.

On the turn,
KdTs7c6d

UTG doesn't seem to like this card, we're not sure about the other two - What do we do?

Scenario 1B

UTG is ready to bet again - What do we do?

Scenario 1 Part 2A

Assume for a moment that 4 people called 1 bet each on the turn, the river is
KdTs7c6d3s

This time, we don't have a read on anybody, what do we do?

1B Part 2B

Same board, this time 3 people called 2 bets on the turn and one folded. We don't have a good read on anybody -What would we do?

I haven't even thought about this yet, I just wanted to throw out some scenarios, to see if anyone has any input.

Don

[Amanjyaku]

Scenario #1
We are big blind, 4 people limp pre-flop, we check.

Pot = 5 SB's.

Flop KdTs&amp;c,
We know (90% sure) UTG is going to bet, we check, UTG bets, 2 callers, we raise, everyone calls.

Pot = 13 SB's

On the turn,
KdTs7c6d
UTG doesn't seem to like this card, we're not sure about the other two - What do we do?

UTG doesn't like this card and neither do I! Any card on 5th street that doesn't pair the board: a) puts a low out there; b) creates another straight on the board; and/or c) makes a flush possible. Can I take it down now by betting? Not in a limit game. I probably check and hope to see the river as cheaply as possible. On the bright side, if 5th street does pair the board, I get the whole pot.

Scenario 1B
UTG is ready to bet again - What do we do?

I check and hope to see the river for one bet. An interesting question is what does an 89 do here with the current nuts for high? He has a vulnerable hand, but that doesn't mean he won't raise if UTG bets, even if he has no redraws. If a raising war breaks out, I don't like it.

Scenario 1 Part 2A
Assume for a moment that 4 people called 1 bet each on the turn, the river is
KdTs7c6d3s

Pot = 21 SB's. Low has arrived.

This time, we don't have a read on anybody, what do we do?

Check. If we can show down the hand for a BB, it's over 5:1. With three callers, it's over 7:1. I can think of a lot of games where I would call and show down. Against three good players I might toss it.

1B Part 2B
Same board, this time 3 people called 2 bets on the turn and one folded. We don't have a good read on anybody -What would we do?

In these 5th street scenarios, I can't imagine people not raising with nuts. If it's a bet and a call (or 2 calls) I'd be more inclined to call than I would if a raising war broke out.