Common/Frustrating River Decision

[AEKDBet]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

SB ($1108.6)
BB ($246)
UTG ($388)
Hero ($1208.2)
Button ($408)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, Button calls $20, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG folds.

Flop: ($50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $35</font>, Button calls $35.

Turn: ($120) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $80</font>, Button calls $80.

River: ($280) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $80</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $360



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In this case I am fairly sure I am beat ( by at least a pair of queens.)

I would just like some general advice on this hand.

Couple of thoughts: I lead the turn for so much because I don't want to fear the queen.

Is the above wrong? Better to check turn OOP / block-bet the river? I would think maybe with big overs, but 99 is so vulnerable.

Any thoughts or comments greatly appreciated
-AEKDBet

Math side note:Getting 4.5 to 1 so I have to be &gt; 82% certain I am beat.... is this math correct? Do you think like this when justifying a call?

[aggie]

Good post!

[ QUOTE ]
In this case I am fairly sure I am beat ( by at least a pair of queens.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you pretty sure you are beat? Is there a read i should know about? Are you 82% sure? You better be!

[ QUOTE ]
Math side note:Getting 4.5 to 1 so I have to be &gt; 82% certain I am beat.... is this math correct? Do you think like this when justifying a call?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and Yes....Even though you are probably beat, i think you must call this river. villian could have a straight draw, or could be value betting A-8....

This fold is also horrible for metagame purposes. I almost always pay off very small bets on the river if i have a decent hand (barring a very good read on my opponent). Basically i'm saying, "you can't steal a pot from me for a small bet....it's going to cost you more than that." calling can not be much of a mistake given the pot odds your getting. If you fold incorrectly, it's a MUCH bigger mistake.

[turnipmonster]

agree 100%, although metagame stuff is less important in games with larger player pools.

[Leptyne]

I think that's an excellent post and I particularly like Aggie's response. I don't see anything in your post that indicates the Q should cause you to worry. As the Aggie points out it's important to call in these cases.

[thabadguy]

Is a raise toooo horrible in such a situation? I guess i just enjoy pushing people off hands too much. I would CR this river sometimes, sometimes just call.

[suitedtwogapper]

[ QUOTE ]
Is a raise toooo horrible in such a situation? I guess i just enjoy pushing people off hands too much. I would CR this river sometimes, sometimes just call.

[/ QUOTE ]

first of all, i think the fold is horrible. he could easily have A8 or something, he could also have a busted straight draw, of which three are present, T9 being a popular hand. I think you have to call.

as for this advice about c/r the river, it's important to represent specific hands... if i were villain, i would not give hero credit for a big hand on a river check, since hero has no reason to think i'm betting this river, given i'm just calling down the whole way. i've called a huge bet on the turn, so it's hard to put me on a busted draw, and there are no huge draws given the rainbow board. therefore, he cannot put me on a draw. if he does not put me on a draw and i never raised, he has no reason to think i'm betting the river, thus he wouldn't check the river with a big hand, he's losing way too much value... in short, any hand i'm value betting the river with i'm certainly calling a raise - in fact calling the raise is almost easier than value betting since it's probably a bluff.

all this is knowing what hero had, but i'm just saying that it's important to represent specific hands against observant, good players who have the ability to not get scared of a big bet and can think about the action of the hand.

[AEKDBet]

Thanks for the responses. I was 'sure' I was beat just based on the tempo of the turn and river... just thought queen smacked villain. FWIW I timed out making up my mind so I wasn't sure about anything.

I'll be calling in the future.

[kagame]

...against most players ;-)