TT hand, overcard on the flop

[WSOP Bound]

I always seem to have a hard time with JJ/TT unless I hit the set. Am I out of line anywhere in this hand? No significant reads. Opponents seem to be pretty typical LP.


Ultimate Bet 0.01/0.02 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.01.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Standard PFR not a lot of questions here

Flop: (10 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

I don't like the ace, but figure I'll fire a test shot here. It seems quite possible that I'm still ahead.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

A blank on the turn. I feel like I should bet this, but want to see what Button does. If he bets I figure I can assume ace. But a weak ace would likely call here, so I still wouldn't know where I stand.

River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???

Another blank, so I'm feeling like there is a decent chance that I'm good here. But if I bet am I winning this 33% of the time?

[Duerig]

I bet this turn and check behind on the river.

[2+2 wannabe]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet this turn and check behind on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

[WSOP Bound]

Can you please explain why? As I said in my post I have a feeling your right, but I'm not seeing the reason.

[Duerig]

You shouldn't assume that your opponent has an A. A likely holding for villian is a flush draw. So you are probably ahead. Check behind on the river because if you bet it, you are only going to get called by a better hand.

[Losfer]

I absolutely hate the check on the turn. There is no idication that you are beat (although there could be a dirty ace out there), but you can't afford to give a free card on that board. There is the obvious flush draw, plus pocket 2's and 3's have six outs against you. You most likely won't get this hands to fold (although that would be great if you did), but you definately won't get a bet out them on the river, so you need to get it now. I assume you are going to call if the button bets, so you might as well bet out.

If you bet and the button raises I think you should fold, but I would really like to see what other think about that.

[WSOP Bound]

I think I agree with you on the turn bet, my equity seems to be high enough to make it a value bet.

If button raises I think a lot depends on what MP1 does. If MP1 folds then it's gotta be close, but think I make the crying call here.

If MP1 cold calls a two bet then things seem to go the otherway. Getting 11.5:1 I would need to be good 8.6% of the time in order for a a call to be +EV. If faced with a raise and a cold call by MP1 then I think I'm good here 0% of the time

[sholvar]

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: (6.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

A blank on the turn. I feel like I should bet this, but want to see what Button does. If he bets I figure I can assume ace. But a weak ace would likely call here, so I still wouldn't know where I stand.


[/ QUOTE ]
tell me how do you can see, what Button does, when you not bet? If you want to see the reaction of a Person behind you must bet if it is checked to you.
Yes every Ace wins here against you, but first you have 2 outs against the ace (not much, but it is a chance) and here he is able to have many hands:
AX
KQ
KJ
K5
Q5

I think only against BB you will win 50% and more.

MP1 is in one of 3 situations (take his Trackerstats to decide in which of these possibilitys you can eliminate):
-he is on a draw (2 hearts, a 6 or a 2)
-he is a calling station (he holds everything and/or nothing)
-he slowplays a wheel (holds 23)

in 2 of these 3 Situations it is a big mistake to check and give that guy a free card. Only if you are sure more than 60% here, that you can eliminate the first 2 Situations you are able to switch to check.
So you must bet, because a check is more positive for the other 2 players.
Another reason for bet is, that 6.5 BB is not a small Pot. You want that pot and your hand is marginal. So you must protect it. Check/Raise is no option here, because BB will only bet, if you are really beaten. Thats why you must bet.

[ QUOTE ]

River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

Another blank, so I'm feeling like there is a decent chance that I'm good here. But if I bet am I winning this 33% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you didnt bet the turn, you are here in a very bad situation:
- you dont know the holding of anybody
-you have 2 opponents and a marginal hand
- If you bet, you have a good chance to get raised and then you must pay 2 bets, on the other hand, if both have nothing you get no money. most times you bet and have the best hand, you get 1 or no bet, so in average maybe 0.9 BB for 1 BB. If you are behind, the chances are good that one of these guys raises , and you pay 2 BB.

No Information means here, no chance to think that nobody will raise or that you have very good chances that both call if you are not behind. If you had bet the Turn, you maybe would have some Information now...
You must check the river here.

If you bet the turn and both guys call, you are in a better situation:
now they are calling stations or have a hand.
With Pokertracker you can answer the following questions:
- are they calling stations?
-what are their hands? (everytime do NOT think: he must have AA or anything like this. You must think, he has a 40% chance to hold AA, 23% to hold 73o and so on. Dont fear to give wrong percentages. You will learn to give the right percentages if you try to think so in every hand you play!)

Now you are able to think you can win 33% or not! Without a turnbet here, you cant count your winning chances!

[Losfer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I agree with you on the turn bet, my equity seems to be high enough to make it a value bet.

If button raises I think a lot depends on what MP1 does. If MP1 folds then it's gotta be close, but think I make the crying call here.

If MP1 cold calls a two bet then things seem to go the otherway. Getting 11.5:1 I would need to be good 8.6% of the time in order for a a call to be +EV. If faced with a raise and a cold call by MP1 then I think I'm good here 0% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

It's actually worse than this, because you have to call a bet on the river as well. Lets see if I can screw this math up.

Assuming MP1 folds:
You'll have to put 2 big bets in to win 8.5, which I think means you have to win about 20% of the time.

If MP1 calls everything gets complicated because of his actions on the river. If he check raises I think you have an auto fold, and if he bets out I think you have to fold as well. If he check calls, then you would make the crying call because of the size of the pot (maybe). However, figuring out how often each of these happens is something I can't do.

[Quercus]

[ QUOTE ]
You shouldn't assume that your opponent has an A. A likely holding for villian is a flush draw. So you are probably ahead. Check behind on the river because if you bet it, you are only going to get called by a better hand.

[/ QUOTE ]