#1
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AXs odds
I'm not real good with odds yet. Could someone help me figure the odds of hitting an A high flush. when the flop hits only 1 of your suit.
Thanx |
#2
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Re: AXs odds
I think this is right...
you have 10 hearts left out of 47 cards on the turn (10/47 or .21) and 9 hearts of 46 cards on the river (9/46 or .20) multiply these numbers together. .21*.20=.042 (4.2% or 1/22.8) So you are about a 23:1 dog to go runner runner. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. TheRake |
#3
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Re: AXs odds
The Rake is very close. Majorkong did the math in a thread a few weeks ago and it was very similar. He compared it two the odds of making a set after you missed on the flop. He said that you could add about 1.5 outs to what other outs you have. He has been around today. Im sure he will correct me if Im wrong.
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#4
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Re: AXs odds
I get the exact same numbers as The Rake. I'm wondering how majorkong figures 1.5 effective outs added to it. I know you have aproximately equivelant to a 1 outter with 22.8 odds to the river. (22.5 odds to make 1.0 out)
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#5
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Re: AXs odds
Thanx for info folks. THe reason I asked is the hand below.
Party Poker 1/2 (8 handed) Hero has T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and is MP2 UTG limps, Hero raises, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls Flop(6 SB): 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls Turn(5 BB): 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG calls River(8 BB): 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB folds Of course my opponent flipped Axh for the runner runner flush. I almost tilted on this but started to think maybe this guy actually had the pot odds to call this down. What does everyone think. Was this a good play by him or should I have tilted [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Thanx Jim |
#6
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Re: AXs odds
He is getting 8:1 on his call, many combo's of the x would give him the odds to call. What was the x of hearts.
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#7
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Re: AXs odds
It depends, again, on what the X was, but in all likelyhood he had a lot of outs. He figured he had the aces, he probably had an inside straight draw, and with the backdoor flush draw it's not bad to take one off. When he picked up the flush draw on the turn it's a given that he'll call to the river.
His mistake was to play AXs preflop UTG. But he got lucky this time. Will |
#8
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Re: AXs odds
sorry he had ATh
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#9
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Re: AXs odds
Well, in that case, he has two overcards to the flop and a backdoor flush draw. Calling on the flop is very correct - he has every reason to think he has six immediate outs and the backdoor flush draw. If he doesn't improve on the turn he should throw it away, but the flop call is correct.
Will |
#10
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Re: AXs odds
I would of played his hand exactly like he did. Lots of people online don't understand odds well enough or board reading well enough. He had enough odds to call just based on his overcards. I always play ATs in ep. If this puts you on tilt you are way too sensitive. I love it when I play a hand like this, and it makes someone so mad they spend the next 15 minutes typing nasty chat messages to me. Sure sign of a fish.
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