$22 Fold AKs on the bubble?

Freudian · #1 08-03-2005, 07:55 PM

All remaining players seem solid.

Can I use the "AK is a drawing hand" defense on this one?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t3040)
Button (t2007)
SB (t703)
Hero (t2250)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t600</font>, Button goes all in [t2007] <font color="#666666">[i], SB folds, Hero folds.

Isura · #2 08-03-2005, 07:58 PM

I think this is a fold. Button has to have a very good hand here to come over the top, knowing that SB has only 2bb and you have him covered. I think...

KingDan · #3 08-03-2005, 08:03 PM

I think this is an easy push.

I think UTG minraises, unless very infrequent, are weakness.

I think a good player can be coming over the top with a lot of hands from the button.AK is too good to fold here, I think it starts getting close with AQ.

11t · #4 08-03-2005, 08:04 PM

This is a definite fold.

Calling here is awful.

Isura · #5 08-03-2005, 08:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a definite fold.

Calling here is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

More interesting maybe, do you call with QQ?

11t · #6 08-03-2005, 08:13 PM

Yah, especially at the 22's with 7xbb. People do stupid stuff and he could have TT or AJ/AQ I mean QQ is going to be way ahead of a lot of hands that AK is not.

I would need a very large stack versus an extremely tight player who had me covered to fold QQ 4 handed when there is a short stack present.

psyduck · #7 08-03-2005, 08:14 PM

Amazingly easy fold.

KK and AA are pushes, the interesting situation is with QQ. JJ downwards are all folds.

KingDan · #8 08-03-2005, 08:19 PM

I do not play the 20s, but I do not think a button range TT+, AJ+ KQ is that off, which I think would be close with the extra money from UTG minraise.

FWIW I do not think pushing AJ would be a mistake against a typical UTG raise, but I do not remember the 20s and may underestimate the chance of getting donkcalled.

Edit: messing around with SNGPT without UTG 600 chips it is -EV by 1.7%, and I do not know if UTGs chip make up for this. I think throwing in the chance of button doing something stupid makes this a call.

Nottom · #9 08-03-2005, 08:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a definite fold.

Calling here is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its only awful if you think the big stack will call. If there is a good chance he will lay it down then its really not a terrible play (it might still be bad, just not terrible).

BadMongo · #10 08-03-2005, 09:54 PM

I think calling here is bad even if you know UTG will lay it down. Given that he may still call, this is an easy fold.