You know your opponent has a pocket Aces...

#1 09-14-2005, 08:41 PM

Do 3 spades on the flop reduce the probability that he has an the Ace of spades? I think it does, right? If so, by how much?

zgall1 · #2 09-14-2005, 08:54 PM

Definitely not.

#3 09-14-2005, 09:43 PM

It does not. The only spade that would reduce his chance of having the A of spades would be the A of spades on the board.

#4 09-14-2005, 11:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do 3 spades on the flop reduce the probability that he has an the Ace of spades? I think it does, right? If so, by how much?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, actually he's more likely to have the Ace of spades if you don't see it on the flop (he's got 2 in 47 instead of 2 in 50).

2+2 wannabe · #5 09-15-2005, 02:20 AM

i like this question - it's interesting

cause it works both ways - and I don't know which one dominates

Kaeser · #6 09-15-2005, 03:59 AM

If you know for a fact that he has pocket aces then his chance of having the ace of spades is 50/50. There are 4 aces he has 2 of them so it's 50% that one of them is the spade. The only thing that changes this probability is if an ace comes on the flop. That makes it 66% that he has a spade.