How much -ICMEV would you take here?

[ilya]

5-handed, blinds 200/400

Party $20-30/Party $50

UTG 2028
CO 649
BTN 1485
SB 2015
BB 1823

SB pushes, I have K9o in BB.

How much -ICMEV would you be willing to take here?

[Eihli]

Thanks for posting this, you made me just realize something that will improve my game a lot. If you win this hand, you can push any 2 on the next 2 hands since they will just be waiting out the guy who will be all-in on his small blind? Looks like you'll be picking up 1200 in blinds over the next 2 hands if you win this one. If SB is pushing somewhere between loose and maniac, you'll win about 40% of the time for an average loss of about 400 chips? Since you're very likely to gain 1200 the next 2 hands when you win I think, but those chips aren't worth as much since you'll already ahve a big stack, I'd take an average loss of about 800 chips on this hand I think.

[applejuicekid]

Why can't you push any two if you don't call? Although you can't eliminate the caller, he will be severly crippled. Also what happens to your plan when the short stack pushes all in?

I don't know the answer to the OP's question. I want to say zero.

[microbet]

800 is quite unreasonable IMHO.

I would think your increase in future FE is worth like 100 chips at best.

[Eihli]

Because if you fold this hand you won't be on the bubble the next 2 hands. If you bust this guy, the 2 guys with 2k will just be waiting for the shortstack to bust.

[Eihli]

Yeah I didn't think too hard to actually come up with that 800 number. But, 100 seems really low. The fold equity you are gaining isn't just from having a bigger stack, it's from setting up a situation in which you are big stack on the bubble with a very shortstack and 2 guys who can fold their way into the money.

What if the shortstack had 100 instead of 600 and is much less likely to win a hand and contend for 3rd?

[Phil Van Sexton]

zero

[microbet]

I'm definitely down with 0 being the answer at this point. I was only saying the future gain in FE is worth something, but not necessarily as much as you are giving up.

It is a low-buyin that he is talking about and I wouldn't count on the middle stacks calling with only QQ+ when ICM says they should.

The winds have blown from passing up +$EV because you are better than the opposition towards taking -$EV because you are better with a big stack.

My present feeling is that ICM is pretty solid and good players accumulate equity by taking all the +$icmEV opportunities, but not the -$icmEV ones. [there are some clear exceptions when players get to around 1 blind]

Just a thought, not thought through, about ICM and the higher buyins, is how will it affect your present decisions if in future hands people will actually do something like fold KK when they should be calling with QQ+ (instead of calling with AT, like they do in my world). That would be a bizarre world indeed.

[jgunnip]

I don't have the whole ICM thing down pat just yet but I do know that making calls like these recently seem to be killing my ROI.

However, say you could win this 50% of the time (does this seem reasonable? and what range for villian would yeild this?) then would the call be ok? The only reason why I'm starting to think this might be ok is because the blinds are so high. 150/300 and I'm usually folding without thought.