hand i no gusta

[irishpint]

empire 3/6

i open UTG w/ KQ [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and get 3bet by UTG1. I've been loose as a goose and maybe he is aware of that but most likely not. The two of us see the flop. 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, he bets and I call. I dont like that call. He 3bet me either with a better overs so im screwed, an overpair so I'm really screwed or something like 99 to which i'm still behind.

Turn brings 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I now have a flush draw. I think about leading, but if he doesn't have an ace he ought to have a really hard time making that call (right?). instead i check and he bets. (Here is where my suckiness comes out). Since I was pissed about my flop call i folded the turn. Stupid. But i figured catching a K or Q just gets me in trouble since i'd be compelled to see a showdown now.

?'s:
1. how many outs on the flop? do i need to just fold this?
2. lead the turn? i think no, because i have outs and want a cheaper turn card (would hate to get raised). but on the other hand, if he does't have an ace he cant hardly call that and if he does have an ace he might be aware we're splitting and not raise.
3. You catch a Q or K on the river- are you c/cing and seeing a show down? bet/fold? or just give him credit for an ace and fold?
4. on a scale of 1-10, how bad was my turn fold? I'll start and say 8, since the pot was laying me the odds to call and i could easily get a second bet out of him on the river.

kyle

[GTSamIAm]

Call/call/fold,bet,check/raise. Bet out or check/raise on the river is player dependent. If you expect him to bet and payoff more than 50% of the time, then go for the check/raise. I would say probably go for the check/raise. Someone who 3-bets preflop and bets flop and turn is pretty aggressive and usually going to bet the river while holding an overpair. Also depends on whether villain bets overcards on the turn. If you're unsure, bet out.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
Call/call/fold,bet,check/raise. Bet out or check/raise on the river is player dependent. If you expect him to bet and payoff more than 50% of the time, then go for the check/raise. I would say probably go for the check/raise. Someone who 3-bets preflop and bets flop and turn is pretty aggressive and usually going to bet the river while holding an overpair. Also depends on whether villain bets overcards on the turn. If you're unsure, bet out.

[/ QUOTE ]

could you clarify what all this stuff means [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

OP: i don't get why you called the flop if you were folding the turn when you're hand improved? i thought that was the point of the flop call.

[toss]

On the flop your hand is likely dominated so yeah fold. You can't fold this turn and leading is bad because you don't want to pay two bets to see the river on a draw.

[istewart]

Turn fold seems really bad.

On the flop, let's see:

AA (6) - 0
KK (3) - 0
QQ (3) - 3
JJ (6) - 6
TT (6) - 6
99 (6) - 6
AK (12) - 3
AQ (12) - 3

So (36 + 36 + 36 + 36 + 36 + 36 + 9 + 0 + 0)/54 = 225/54 = 4.17. And you have a backdoor flush, so that's about 5.5 outs total, getting 8.5:1.

At this point it seems break-even at best. However, I think this turns into a fold for two reasons, and maybe more that I am not thinking of.

1) You often face serious reverse-implied odds when you spike a K vs. AK or a Q vs. AQ, etc.

2) AA, AK, AQ have a gutshot that they will hit a non-insignificant portion of the time.

[Saint_D]

1. how many outs on the flop? do i need to just fold this?

Strait forward outs? I am sure you know this. Overcards = 3, BDFD = about 1.5. You are about 10:1 to improve on the turn.
You are getting 4:1 from the pot. Not even close. Just fold.

Even if you catch your outs, you have to make up 3 BB someplace. And with a BDFD that someplace would be a scary damn river for the villian.

IMHO this was your big mistake in the hand. All the other choices were at least close.


2. lead the turn? Lead the turn if you think your ahead. You don't. You are about 4:1 to pick up your last flush card.

The pot has 4 big bets. This call is now break even. You might even get a little action if you hit the BDFD.


3. You catch a Q or K on the river- are you c/cing and seeing a show down? bet/fold? or just give him credit for an ace and fold?


This is where a read of any kind would help a lot. Probably check/call.


4. on a scale of 1-10, how bad was my turn fold?


It's a 5. you were even money. The flop call however is terrible. You were way behind.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 4:1 from the pot. Not even close. Just fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting better odds than that.

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting 4:1 from the pot. Not even close. Just fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting better odds than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

My mistake, it was a little muddy. When you correct someone it might be more helpful to give your answer...

OP raised UTG (2SB) Vilian Raises (3SB) Hero calls (1SB).

Pot is giving you 6:1. Still not close enough.

-D

p.s. Even if you capped it, this is still probably a bad call.

[GTSamIAm]

Call flop. Call turn. Check/raise or bet if you hit. I think there's no need to get aggressive when there's a strong chance you'll get charged by a strong overpair or AK, both of which suck balls.

[Eeegah]

1. There's a deal in SSHE about nearly always 3-betting if you're next to act after a PFR. He may be noticing that you're playing loose, or he may just be 3-betting to isolate, so I'll push his 3-betting to TT+, AQ+, KQ, ATs+, or about 6%. Given that, your odds on the flop are dim; you'll have to heavily discount your overcards for fear of domination, and even if you catch one you might lose to AA or a 5 on the river. Your backdoor flush is likely solid though. I'll say 3 outs total here--not enough to go on for my tastes, although Pokerstove disagrees (you have 21% equity and only need to put in 12.5%).

2. There is no reason whatsoever to lead the turn here. It's not for value, and a semi-bluff is almost certainly not working here. Check/call. I think that's the first time I've seen someone fold out of spite [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

3. Oh man. If it weren't for that 5 on the turn it would be an easy check/call, but now any A beats you regardless of kicker. You still gotta check/call, but even if you catch a king you'll only win this about 4 times out of 10.

4. 31% chance you'll take the pot, and you're being asked to put in like 20% of the pot. Pretty bad; I give you a 3.5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]