Made Draw Against TAG

Scotch78 · #1 11-05-2005, 10:59 AM

CO is 12/7.7/2 over 500 hands with a 23% WSD.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Scott

toss · #2 11-05-2005, 11:09 AM

I'd say the flop peel is questionable. Are you planning to fold to a raise on the river?

Scotch78 · #3 11-05-2005, 11:29 AM

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I'd say the flop peel is questionable

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I'm not particularly worried about sets (and especially two pair hands) with this flop, so AK and KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are the only hands I'm really worried about. If he has a king, but neither of those hands, then I should have about 5 outs with redraws. At 9.5-1 that's plenty. Also, I figured that the chance of him having QJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a PP smaller than queens would help compensate for the times I'm up against AK.

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Are you planning to fold to a raise on the river?

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Probably, his stats don't suggest any nuttiness and I can't think of any reasonable raising hands that I beat.

Scott

toss · #4 11-05-2005, 11:45 AM

What your plan if a nonspade Q falls on the river?

SNOWBALL138 · #5 11-05-2005, 12:19 PM

I really don't like your flop call. You're often looking at top pair, and you don't have the odds to call versus top pair. When you aren't looking at top pair, and are instead looking at a flush draw, you will still either lose when he makes the draw or be bluffed off of the winning hand.

Fold the flop.

Piiop · #6 11-05-2005, 12:30 PM

I think this whole hand is fine.

Piiop · #7 11-05-2005, 12:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're often looking at top pair, and you don't have the odds to call versus top pair. When you aren't looking at top pair, and are instead looking at a flush draw, you will still either lose when he makes the draw or be bluffed off of the winning hand. Fold the flop.

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Can you explain your math behind this conclusion?

Scotch78 · #8 11-05-2005, 01:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What your plan if a nonspade Q falls on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check-fold.

Scott

Scotch78 · #9 11-05-2005, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Can you explain your math behind this conclusion?

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If he has a king other than AK or KQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then I have three aces, a backdoor flush draw worth about 1.5 outs and a backdoor straight draw worth a little bit.

Scott

Borodog · #10 11-05-2005, 01:57 PM

Dare I say . . . standard?