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  #1  
Old 05-16-2005, 08:27 PM
whatever whatever is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2003
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Default 7 stud probability question

I was looking at another site and I can't come up with these numbers. The site reports the following percentages and odds, but I just cannot figue out the math for this situation.

The site says if You Have 10c - Jc - Qc:

The probability that the final strength of your hand after seven cards will be...

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>(Hand) (%) (odds)
Str. Fl. 1.49 66.2 to 1
Flush 16.56 5.04 to 1
Straight 14.91 5.71 to 1
</pre><hr />

I don't really care about the math for the Straight Flush split out from the Straight and Flush, although I guess that's necessary so that you don't count the straigh flush as both a straight and a flush? Any way, can someone show the math that was used to get these numbers?
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  #2  
Old 05-17-2005, 06:28 PM
whatever whatever is offline
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Default Re: 7 stud probability question

Too hard?

Or too boring?
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  #3  
Old 05-17-2005, 07:38 PM
gaming_mouse gaming_mouse is offline
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Default Re: 7 stud probability question

[ QUOTE ]
Too hard?

Or too boring?

[/ QUOTE ]

stuff like this has been just been done many times.

here's how get the chance of a flush or str8 flush.

You need to get 2, 3, or 4 clubs out of the next 4 cards. There are 9 clubs left.

(10 choose 4) ways to get 4 more clubs.
(10 choose 3)*39 ways to get 3.
(10 choose 2)*(39 choose 2) ways to get 2.

There are 49 choose 4 ways to draw the next 4 cards, in total. Thus the chance we want is:

((10 choose 4) + (10 choose 3)*39 + (10 choose 2)*(39 choose 2)) / (49 choose 4) = 0.180459325

which agrees with sum of the flush and str8 flush chances that you posted.

I'm bored.

gm
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