Variance tolerance straw poll

[Nate tha' Great]

Please read carefully before responding.

Suppose a benefactor knocks on your door this morning and offers you the choice of several proposition wagers. Each wager involves flipping a coin. If the coin comes up heads, you will win a certain amount of money, and if the coin comes up tails, you will win or lose a certain amount of money as is specified ahead of time. The amount that you win or lose will be based on the size a big bet (BB) in the highest limit poker game that you play regularly.

Which of the following offers would you take? Amounts are provided in BB. The numbers in parenthesis represent the monetary value for a player whose highest regular game is 15/30.

[SmileyEH]

I'm way overbankrolled for the limit I play, so I went with the largest wager.

-SmileyEH

[bunky9590]

Nate, so much involved in this is a bankroll issue. As far as the limit I regularly play online, I have 1500 BB. With that in mind, IF thats what you're saying, Id have to take something in the 110-115 EV range.

[mmcd]

I'm no statistician, but what are the chances you come out behind after 100 flips getting laid 3-2. Intuitively, I'm pretty sure it's less than 5% and may even be less than 2%.

I'm too busy/lazy to do the math, anyone know the answer offhand?

I chose the last option.

P.S. Do you pay/get paid per/flip or settle up at the end?

[pudley4]

I've only got ~900 BB in my bankroll and no way to replace it, so I chose the 2nd highest variance/payout; otherwise it would have been the highest.

[DMBFan23]

I find it interesting that I chose

[ QUOTE ]
Heads: Win 220 BB ($880); Tails: Win/Lose 0 BB ($0)

(dollars converted to 2/4)


[/ QUOTE ]

when, every time I play 100 hands, I'm taking a SD/EV ratio larger than your highest variance option. perhaps this is due to the fact that I can "flip the coin" playing poker an arbitrarily large number of times.

[stoxtrader]

can i choose win 9k BB / lose 6k BB? or whatever the progression goes to?

[sfer]

A very good friend of mine used to use nearly this exact example to explain risk-neutral probabilities and cashflow discounting to people. He also played poker.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

0 risk is clearly the way to go.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
0 risk is clearly the way to go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if your goal is to maximize your EV.